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5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I expect a fair amount of research was done to establish this system. They didn't just think it up overnight! 

a fair chunk of the public wouldn't see the train coming until they had been run over by it. Not much you can do about them! 

I'm aware that a fair amount of research was done to establish this system... I was the first here to post about it in the Invest thread before it was even a depression so even a muggle such as myself has been following it for quite some time... but that doesn't mean that the precise impacts in various locations was known days ago, nor, indeed, necessarily now... hence the warning matrix of likelihood Vs impact.

As for people not knowing until it hits them... there'll be some, but frankly, once talk of it starts in the Valleys, it becomes the main gossip of the day. The risk of that is actually more that people dismiss it as gossip than people not knowing about it... but they'll still empty the fridge at the local co-op. 

Edited by crimsone

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The amber warning for NI runs for Monday afternoon well into the evening. Belfast,  the ferries across to Britain. the S SSE winds directly hitting the Down coast at rush hour

1510belfast.png

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Just now, Jo Farrow said:

The amber warning for NI runs for Monday afternoon well into the evening. Belfast,  the ferries across to Britain. the S SSE winds directly hitting the Down coast at rush hour

1510belfast.png

That's going to be... expensive.

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Most people take the weather from junk news papers and having been subject scare stories over the years it basically goes in one eye and out of the other. Then saying that only person I met last night knew about the storm.

It's now getting the coverage on the news albeit a late in the day.

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0600 ARPEGE covering peak wind gusts between now and 0600 Tuesday.

Max Gust 15-10-0600 Run til 17-10-0600.jpg

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1 minute ago, The PIT said:

Most people take the weather from junk news papers and having been subject scare stories over the years it basically goes in one eye and out of the other. Then saying that only person I met last night knew about the storm.

It's now getting the coverage on the news albeit a late in the day.

I confess, I expected to see more ramping.

I suspect that (Express excluded), when it started to be more certain in respect of landing in Ireland, the UK media lost interest. To be fair, I suspect most editors don't understand what extratropical transition means for wind fields, and looking at earlier model runs, it might well have been a sunny day in London... and none of them have cared that much for N. Ireland since the Good Friday Agreement. Sad, but True.

Now that there's a clear prospect of Gales in Kent, however...

(Or you could be more cynical, and suggest that they ramp up the storms less likely to do damage to sell papers, but the ones more likely are kind of ignored so that they can sensationalise the damage afterwards. That would explain the coverage too.)

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2 minutes ago, Stormhog said:

0600 ARPEGE covering peak wind gusts between now and 0600 Tuesday.

Max Gust 15-10-0600 Run til 17-10-0600.jpg

OOH! Bit of a sting in the tail there!

 

Screen Shot 2017-10-15 at 12.38.20.png

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Met Office...issued at 11am today.....wind gust at 1pm on Monday topping out at...67mph here in Milford Haven....hope so.

Edited by Bill Reed

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6 minutes ago, crimsone said:

OOH! Bit of a sting in the tail there!

 

Screen Shot 2017-10-15 at 12.38.20.png

It's showing peak wind gusts since T0, ie showing earlier gusts off Southern Ireland.

Interestingly this shows similar wind gusts across much of Wales and northern England as Northern Ireland, so it would seem strange if the warnings weren't altered tomorrow morning to reflect that.

Edited by Cold Winter

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Amazing to see a Category 2 hurricane only 500 miles west of Lisbon. I have no doubt this thing would have remained tropical had it hit the Iberian Peninsula.

The Azores and Madeira have dodged a bullet too, the former escaping a major-hurricane hit.

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The Peak District is back on the edge of 50% chance again of seeing tropical-winds from the latest NHC update, with many tops at +1300ft being exposed to swly's i'm assuming that height also comes into play, Snaefell for example on the IOM might see some strong gusts even though Ophelia's windfield will be extratropical by the time it reaches there.

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6 minutes ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

The Peak District is back on the edge of 50% chance again of seeing tropical-winds from the latest NHC update, with many tops at +1300ft being exposed to swly's i'm assuming that height also comes into play, Snaefell for example on the IOM might see some strong gusts even though Ophelia's windfield will be extratropical by the time it reaches there.

Not sure I'd want to experience the venturi effect in such an event as that!

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Think the army is being sent out, Ireland Defence forces? on latest tweet

1510ietweet.png

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3 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:

Think the army is being sent out, Ireland Defence forces? on latest tweet

1510ietweet.png

Makes sense. At the bare minimum, I'd imagine 35' waves results in a lot of need for sand-bagging in some of the coastal regions.

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Slightly nervous as I’m not so sure some peeps realise how nasty this storm is going to be. On an equestrian forum I’m on, a couple in Ireland have cottoned on and are queurying whether to keep their horses in .. the single stable is next to some trees. Tough decisions to call.. outside with flying debris, or in a wooden stable. Horses are flight animals and easily panic.. hope they all stay safe. 

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3 minutes ago, thetipster said:

PSX_20171015_135727.jpg

Warm sequestration and extratropical conversion well underway, I'd have thought.  It seems that the eye has disappeared, and is that a cold front on the NE flank? 

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Transition definitely ongoing the eye is on its last legs.

 

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WSci-Weather-Map-LIVE.png

DANGEROUS SITUATION STATEMENT for EIRE - EXTRA TROPICAL OPHELIA EXPECTED LANDFALL MON AM

There is now a high risk of severe disruption for Southern Ireland with Co Cork, Kerry, Limerick and Clare thought to be the worst affected by a powerful extra-tropical storm with hurricane force conditions expected across exposed Southern and Western coastlines on landfall.

Extra tropical storm conditions will begin to affect Southern Ireland from Monday AM peaking in intensity through Monday afternoon before transferring North to affect Northern Ireland later in the afternoon and evening on Monday.

Damaging winds of 70-80mph are expected with gusts in excess of 100mph possible across the highest ground. Severe disruption to transport networks, power utilities and damage to trees and buildings is expected. Advice would be to take immediate action to protect property and avoid venturing out on Monday.

Additional threats will be storm surge inundation with Co Kerry, Waterford, Cork and Wexford most likely to be worst affected by storm surge related coastal flooding. Marine conditions will be extremely dangerous and the coast should be avoided.

Elsewhere further North across remaining Co of Ireland severe conditions are expected with severe gales gusting 50-60mph quite widely, locally 70mph to lower ground. Storm force winds are likely across higher ground with gusts of 70-80mph possible. Some damage to trees and buildings is possible and some disruption to transport and power is anticipated.

Extra tropical Ophelia will be weakening rapidly as her wind-field extends into parts of Scotland, England and Wales during Monday evening and into Tuesday AM. Widespread gales are expected inland across Scotland, N England, locally severe or storm force to higher ground across North Wales. Gusts to 50-60mph are expected widely with isolated gusts to 70mph across Cumbria and higher ground across Scotland. Gusts in excess of 90mph are not ruled out across Capel Curig in N Wales and well renown exposed locations and higher terrain across Scotland.

Some minor disruption to transport and interruption to power is possible across worst affected parts of England, Scotland and Wales.

Please stay safe and refer to your local authorities for further advice on how to stay safe.

Edited by Thermohaline Conveyor

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I've noticed that although still intense for Ireland, some models such as the ECM develop extremely tight isobars south of Ireland

Spákort gert á VÍecm0125_nat_msl_t850_6urk_2017101500_030

This weakens considerably by landfall even though the system is still prorogued to bring 80mph perhaps locally 90mph gusts to southern Ireland
ecm0125_nat_msl_t850_6urk_2017101500_036ecm0125_nat_msl_t850_6urk_2017101500_042

Those really tight isobars are probably associated with charts showing gusts over 100mph south of Ireland. Some models like the ARPEGE posted earlier probably go a bit OTT, as the peak it gusts it shows of 222km/h is 138mph!  I presume a sting jet might be in play too.
Quite remarkable really and I'd imagine about the strongest storms get that close to the UK, so it's a good thing that's to the south of Ireland.

Edited by Evening thunder

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Counties Limerick (in the midwest) and Waterford (southeast) added to red warning category.

Wexford, Galway, Mayo, Clare, Cork, Kerry, Limerick and Waterford

Edited by The Eagle

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Can i ask a question. I dont think i have ever seen a track for a storm like this before. Is this due to it being an ex hurricane and it does what it likes. It originated mid atlantic and just seems to have carried on that path. How unusual is this type of storm basicalky going southwest to northwest

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