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EURO4 now in range - it's one of the main short term models produced by the Met Office. Shows hurricane force winds (75mph+) nearly getting to the Irish coast at T42, and 70mph mean wind speeds on the eastern Irish coast by T48 (60knots=69mph). Extremities of western Wales potentially 60mph mean winds. The inland speeds over Ireland seem a lot lower than other models I've seen - but I think this model often does that, so not sure how reliable.

Note these are mean wind speeds - gusts much higher.

17101606_1412.gif  17101612_1412.gif

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7 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Gusts or sustained?

Assume its in mph?

Gusts mph. 

I think one of the key things to take is that the winds will go inland it won't be just a coastal event. 

Edited by Iceberg

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Pleased I've cancelled my red letter day air balloon ride across the Irish Sea on Monday. That would have been turbulent to say the least!  

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1 minute ago, Lowestoft Tiler said:

Pleased I've cancelled my red letter day air balloon ride across the Irish Sea on Monday. That would have been turbulent to say the least!  

Would have felt like being  in a F16  :rofl:

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2 minutes ago, Lowestoft Tiler said:

Pleased I've cancelled my red letter day air balloon ride across the Irish Sea on Monday. That would have been turbulent to say the least!  

You would have been blown up to the North Pole. :D

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So at least I may see some action on my travels Monday in West Wales *weather related action I must add

Edited by karlos1983

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image.thumb.png.f8514ce68910fba00e91b55a973e591d.png

Main body of swell now forecast to be directly up Irish Sea (as opposed to w.coast of Eire as earlier progged). Epic for SW.Wales coastline. 

Owners of boats in Tenby, Pembs, been advised to remove their boats from the water!

What's the chance of further eastwards corrections of storm path in coming hours?

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One thing that’s becoming clear now is that this is more than just an Ireland impacting storm. Be it wind, coastal flooding, river flooding etc, this will be a widespread event for western Britain. I’m quite surprised at the lack of coverage this is getting.

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14 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

So at least I may see some action on my travels Monday in West Wales *weather related action I must add

Trust me, weather action is the only action you'll be seeing round here!

Deffo try to get to the coast, especially during the afternoon (high tide late afternoon)., I'm sure it'll be quite spectacular...

Wind's going to be southerly, so I'd expect quite a bit of over-topping Wiseman's Bridge to Pendine, if the forecast holds true.

(Obviously the swell will be bigger on the west facing beaches but the impact may be less).

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All very interesting stuff. I am tempted to drive to the west coast of Wales for Monday morning or Cumbria in the afternoon if Ophelia continues on her current track/moves slightly further east. A westward correction though would probably make it not worth the bother.

Also the chance of some convective weather around the system with convective gusts of 85mph on the west coast of Wales showing on lightning wizard charts below

gfs_gusts_eur48.thumb.png.168a100696f2d2ba13b6a0adcf4dc5ba.png

www.lightningwizard.com/maps

Edited by Supacell

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1 hour ago, scott125 said:

Im flying Glasgow to Manchester on Tuesday Morning , not looking forward to it 

Ask for a refund. The way it's looking you wont need a plane.

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3 minutes ago, Supacell said:

All very interesting stuff. I am tempted to drive to the west coast of Wales for Monday morning or Cumbria in the afternoon if Ophelia continues on her current track/moves slightly further east. A westward correction though would probably make it not worth the bother.

Also the chance of some convective weather around the system with convective gusts of 85mph on the west coast of Wales showing on lightning wizard charts below

gfs_gusts_eur48.thumb.png.168a100696f2d2ba13b6a0adcf4dc5ba.png

www.lightningwizard.com/maps

Coast rd  near baycliff on morcambe bay on high tide is perfect it I'll be testing some sea defences  that I built :rofl:

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9 minutes ago, benb said:

Trust me, weather action is the only action you'll be seeing round here!

Deffo try to get to the coast, especially during the afternoon (high tide late afternoon)., I'm sure it'll be quite spectacular...

Wind's going to be southerly, so I'd expect quite a bit of over-topping Wiseman's Bridge to Pendine, if the forecast holds true.

(Obviously the swell will be bigger on the west facing beaches but the impact may be less).

I’m in New Quay, which is spectacular when it’s a NW wind on the harbour wall, sw wind won’t produce big waves there, but I’m staying up the hill (800 ft asl) so should get some decent readings on my kestrel. 

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8 minutes ago, Supacell said:

All very interesting stuff. I am tempted to drive to the west coast of Wales for Monday morning or Cumbria in the afternoon if Ophelia continues on her current track/moves slightly further east. A westward correction though would probably make it not worth the bother.

Also the chance of some convective weather around the system with convective gusts of 85mph on the west coast of Wales showing on lightning wizard charts below

gfs_gusts_eur48.thumb.png.168a100696f2d2ba13b6a0adcf4dc5ba.png

www.lightningwizard.com/maps

Over 70mh gusts potential for the whole of Wales/SW England - am I reading that right?

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Hopefully the BBC have the sense to speak about this on the national news tomorrow. Sunday is the best day to do that to warn everyone at least 

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Where would be the best place on the Welsh Coast to see this? I'm so tempted to drive across the country late Sunday night

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1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

Where would be the best place on the Welsh Coast to see this? I'm so tempted to drive across the country late Sunday night

Anywhere from Tenby to st Davids would be good ,also stunning coastline .

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3 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Where would be the best place on the Welsh Coast to see this? I'm so tempted to drive across the country late Sunday night

I’d say either Anglesey or south west tip (Pembrokeshire cost national park region)

Edited by karlos1983

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Just now, karlos1983 said:

I’d say either Anglesey or south west tip

250 mile trip.. Driving over during the night on Sunday shouldn't be too painful.. 

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