Hurricane Ophelia

[The PIT]

19 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Remarkable only in 25C waters I believe this is rare, I love the unpredictable nature that’s part of the fascination 2017 has been a very interesting year one that I will not forget - the models have certainly not showed Ophelia as intense the subsequent effects remains to be seen.  

 

NOAA actual deal with this. The air above the storm are much cooler than average allowing the convection too keep on going.

[The PIT]

1 hour ago, Paul said:

The met office won't rename previously named hurricanes/tropical storms, so it will stay as ex-Ophelia.

Come on it's go to be with the modern flow and be a cross dresser and be renamed Brian.

 

[Daniel*]

 

 

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Come on it's go to be with the modern flow and be a cross dresser and be renamed Brian.

 

Personally, PIT, I think that all Atlantic storms should be 'gender-neutral'...Anyone know what that means?

[MattStoke]

No point re-naming a storm. Would only create confusion.

May get Brian next weekend, if the GFS is onto something. He just won't be the Messiah ;-)

Met Éireann appear to have different thresholds for their warning levels and usually go one level higher than the UK Met Office. Sometimes their warnings seem a little OTT although, in this case I think a red warning for parts of Ireland is warranted. 

[radiohead]

Ophelia will be a 100-knot 960mb Cat 3 hurricane on the next NHC advisory.

Edited October 14, 2017 by radiohead

[Fiona Robertson]

6 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Probably do it Monday morning when it will be too late. The name well that's got to stay the same. At the moment it's hardly getting much attention with news more concerned about pervert film makers and the comedy at the Whitehouse.

I've been wondering about that. The latest GFS shows the strongest winds barreling up the Irish Sea and over Wales, just as bad as the ROI. ROI is on a red. Personally I'd rather be "over-warned" than "under-warned".

[The PIT]

Actually I'm surprised the relative lack of excitement. Normally they'll be jumping all over the TV followed by an anti climax. Either way it's an interesting phenomenon and a fairly rare event as well.

[crimsone]

3 minutes ago, Fiona Robertson said:

I've been wondering about that. The latest GFS shows the strongest winds barreling up the Irish Sea and over Wales, just as bad as the ROI. ROI is on a red. Personally I'd rather be "over-warned" than "under-warned".

Great thing about the meto warning system is that it's adaptable. They can hedge a yellow warning on a very low probability of a high impact, or a very high probability of a low impact, for systems this far out...

... or, you know, depending on how cynical you are, it allows them to screw up and get away with it

[The Eagle]

 

[Iceberg]

Have to admit I am going to take a screen print of the nhc update of the closest major hurricane ever for the uk. 

The water vapour currently over the west and nw of the British isles is all part of the same feeder band into this very pretty lady. 

[The Eagle]

Must be Category 3 at next advisory surely

[karlos1983]

 

3 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

Must be Category 3 at next advisory surely

30 mins and we will find out 

[Mokidugway]

Azores web cam  image  she's near 

[Thermohaline Conveyor]

Current most probable solution.  Obviously subject to change.  Those residing in S Ireland and in the red zone should be taking appropriate action as advised by Met Eireann.

 

[Summer Sun]

Cat 3

 

[Daniel*]

Not sure what superlative to use?   

 

[Lynxus]

6 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Cat 3

 

Wow, This winter is going to be full of surprises!

 

When was the last time the Azores was hit by a Cat3?  Surely it must of been quite a long time ago.. (if ever?)

Edited October 14, 2017 by Lynxus

[The Eagle]

[Iceberg]

I am not sure I believe the nhc prediction of this losing its tropical nature in just 24 hrs. 

[Thunder Snow]

1 hour ago, The PIT said:

Actually I'm surprised the relative lack of excitement. Normally they'll be jumping all over the TV followed by an anti climax. Either way it's an interesting phenomenon and a fairly rare event as well.

possibly because its actually going to happen pit lol 

[weatherobsuk]

Given that Ophelia is forecast to become extratropical, the wind
field should expand, resulting in impacts over portions of the
British Isles regardless of its exact location or strength.

Although the center of Ophelia is not forecast to reach Ireland or
the UK for another couple of days, wind and rains will arrive
well in advance of the cyclone center. Individuals in those
locations should consult products from their local meteorological
service for more information on local impacts.
 

Hurricane Ophelia Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
1100 AM AST Sat Oct 14 2017

[Met4Cast]

"It probably wont reach Category 2"

"It probably wont reach Category 3"

"It probably wont hit Ireland as a hurricane".....

[The PIT]

5 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

I am not sure I believe the nhc prediction of this losing its tropical nature in just 24 hrs. 

Bit sad we are depending on  NOAA for updates.

[Man With Beard]

2 hours ago, karlos1983 said:

Indeed, I’m off to look but im sure I’ve read before somewhere the stronger the hurricane, the more forward momentum it carries, I.e. easterly track rather than north. 

My thoughts exactly