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Winter 2017 2018 General Discussion

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Manchester Winter Indices

2013-14: 7

1988-89: 20

2006-07: 21

1997-98: 25

1974-75: 26 

1989-90: 26

2015-16: 28

1973-74: 30 

1987-88: 37

2007-08: 37

1991-92: 40

1975-76: 41 

2016-17: 41

1999-00: 42

1992-93: 43

2002-03: 44

1994-95: 45

1998-99: 47

2004-05: 47

2011-12: 47

2001-02: 50

2003-04: 50

2005-06: 59

1979-80: 66 

1996-97: 72

2000-01: 77

1993-94: 78

2014-15: 82

1983-84: 82 

1982-83: 85

1977-78: 90 

1980-81: 90 

2017-18: 93

1986-87: 100

2012-13: 102

2008-09: 105

2010-11: 119

1990-91: 126

1995-96: 135

1984-85: 140

1976-77: 141 

1981-82: 149 

1985-86: 159

2009-10: 197

1978-79: 262 

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3 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Manchester Winter Indices

...

2017-18: 93

...

Apologies if you've already explained this, but is the index confined to the three months December, January, and February, or can points tot up before/beyond that?

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5 minutes ago, Relativistic said:

Apologies if you've already explained this, but is the index confined to the three months December, January, and February, or can points tot up before/beyond that?

It's just the meteorological winter :)

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38 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

I wonder how this season will now be described under the Bonacina system?

I imagine it will be average most likely. For most areas close to sea level it has been pretty poor for snow lying, though higher ground and areas that benefit from polar maritime flows have done well.

Despite the January 1987 spell, 1986/87 was also ranked 'Average'. I imagine to achieve 'Snowy' or 'Very Snowy' it needs prolonged cold and snow with sea level areas affected in two or three of the winter months.

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Posted (edited)

Winter indexes here (1987-2018):

2009/10: 175
2010/11: 129
1995/96: 128
2012/13: 103
1990/91: 93
2000/01: 87
1993/94: 77
2008/09: 65
2003/04: 64
2017/18: 62
1996/97: 60
2005/06: 55
1998/99: 53
2002/03: 52
1992/93: 49
2011/12: 48
2001/02: 48
1991/92: 45
2014/15: 44
2004/05: 43
1994/95: 38
1999/00: 37
1987/88: 35
2016/17: 26
2007/08: 26
2015/16: 24
1997/98: 20
2006/07: 20
2013/14: 8
1989/90: 8
1988/89: 6.6

Average: 56

Numbers were boosted by above average days of sleet/snow falling (17 days vs the average of 12 days) and air frosts (23 days vs the average of 21 days). Snow lying at 0900 was half of average (3 days vs the average of 6 days). The mean max was also 1C below the average for the period.

Edited by reef

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57 minutes ago, reef said:

Winter indexes here (1987-2018):


2003/04: 64

That really stands out to me. Is that because most of the cold snaps were northerly ones?

NOAA_1_2003122118_1.pngNOAA_1_2004012718_1.pngNOAA_1_2004020812_1.pngNOAA_1_2004022618_1.pngNOAA_1_2004022800_1.png

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6 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

That really stands out to me. Is that because most of the cold snaps were northerly ones?

Yes and apart from the early February 2004 chart they all delivered lying snow here. Snow on the night of 21st December 2003 delivered a 3cm cover, January 2004 delivered a 12cm cover which lasted three days and 23rd February and 28th February had 1cm and 8cm. The number of days with snow falling and number of air frosts were much lower than this winter, but each event delivered. It was great to have lying snow in each winter month in an otherwise rather mild winter.

The lack of potent straight northerlies or those with a slight easterly component in recent years has really affected the amount of lying snow days here.

Snowlying.thumb.png.0d8aef69da890e1045d517d618be5276.png

2009-2013 was as unusual for high numbers of days with lying snow as 2014 onwards has been for lack of it.

Snowfalling.thumb.png.a4b01a3ad6db948a72a7925d19cfb203.png

Falling snow has been more variable in recent years after relative consistency before 2007. 2013/14 sticks out like a sore thumb there. The last four winters have had more marginal events and northerlies have had more westerly components, each of these often give sleet or snow showers here, but aren't very favourable for lying snow.

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Sunny Februaries in recent times ending in "8" for England and Wales 

118.2 2008
105.2 1988
98.5 2018
88.5 1998

1st, 3rd, 4th and 11th sunniest Februaries on record 

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Level 2 cold weather alert issued

Current alert level: Level 2 - Alert and Readiness

Issued at: 09:56 on Tue 13 Mar 2018

There is a 70% probability of severe cold weather/heavy snow between 0900 on Friday 16 Mar and 0900 on Monday 19 Mar in parts of England. This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services. Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust's emergency plan for appropriate preventive action.

A cold easterly airflow is expected to re-develop during the coming weekend, likely lasting until early next week, however at present looks unlikely to be as severe as the conditions experienced at the start of the month.

After a relatively mild period this week, trigger criteria for low temperatures are likely to be met quickly across most parts of England from Saturday onwards, with the cold air first arriving during Friday night across the east. Widespread frost, low daytime temperatures and a significant wind chill are likely to develop. Snow also becomes an increasing risk, especially across the higher Pennines for a time Friday night, but then after that the main focus of snow is in the south and east late Saturday onwards, with many northern and western parts likely staying mainly dry. There is currently a lot of uncertainty about snowfall location, timing and amounts, but there is high confidence in low temperatures countrywide. The alerts are likely to be updated in the days to come when confidence in the story grows.

An update will be issued when the alert level changes in any region. Alerts are issued once a day by 0900 if required and are not subject to amendment in between standard issue times. Note that the details of the forecast weather are valid at the time of issue but may change over the period that an alert remains in force. These details will not be updated here unless the alert level also changes, the latest forecast details can be obtained at the following link: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/#?tab=coldWeatherAlert

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On 3 March 2018 at 16:15, reef said:

I imagine it will be average most likely. For most areas close to sea level it has been pretty poor for snow lying, though higher ground and areas that benefit from polar maritime flows have done well.

Despite the January 1987 spell, 1986/87 was also ranked 'Average'. I imagine to achieve 'Snowy' or 'Very Snowy' it needs prolonged cold and snow with sea level areas affected in two or three of the winter months.

Thinking about it, December 2017 was snowier than December 1986 though and I don't recall anything of February 1987. March 1987 had some good snowfalls. 

The snowfalls of winter 2017-18 were more spread out than that of winter 1986-87. Winter 1986-87 was just those few days mid January.

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8 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Thinking about it, December 2017 was snowier than December 1986 though and I don't recall anything of February 1987. March 1987 had some good snowfalls. 

The snowfalls of winter 2017-18 were more spread out than that of winter 1986-87. Winter 1986-87 was just those few days mid January.

Winter 2015/16 on there is also ranked as 'Average', which I find a bit baffling as I would have thought 'Little' would have been more apt. Also 2012/13 is also only 'Average' whereas I think maybe it should have been ranked 'Snowy'. Though maybe it's only Dec to Feb which is considered, but there was some snow in Feb as well as the late Jan snowy spell, but the 'some outstanding features' section does mention the late March snowfalls and in the month with coldest CET section March's CET is put in brackets next to January's as it was even colder than that month. The last Winter to get a 'Snowy' ranking on there was of course 2010/11. I take it though that they're not so much a true scientific analysis so much as an individual's personal opinion? But my guess would be that Winter 2017/18 will most likely only be ranked average if not for the fact that a lot of places didn't even see any settling snow until late February or early March.

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Posted (edited)

Picture this morning with view from my apartment. What a difference to this time last year when the melt was well under way. What a fantastic winter season we have had with regular snowfall and hardly any melt and so it continues. Glad to see winter finally delivering for many back in the UK. Just goes to show how cold an Easterly can be, just when we thought it was gone for ever, and truly remarkable low day time temps for March , Just a shame the winter wonderland charts started towards the end of the winter. It might have been a classic winter otherwise, may be one for the records.. Anyway now looking forward to a bit of warmth now but looks like another cold plunge to be released towards Blighty from the NE  before the month is out.

C

29432758_10156362791118628_5353293382863028224_o.jpg

Edited by carinthian

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On 13/03/2018 at 23:55, Walsall Wood Snow said:

Winter 2015/16 on there is also ranked as 'Average', which I find a bit baffling as I would have thought 'Little' would have been more apt. Also 2012/13 is also only 'Average' whereas I think maybe it should have been ranked 'Snowy'. Though maybe it's only Dec to Feb which is considered, but there was some snow in Feb as well as the late Jan snowy spell, but the 'some outstanding features' section does mention the late March snowfalls and in the month with coldest CET section March's CET is put in brackets next to January's as it was even colder than that month. The last Winter to get a 'Snowy' ranking on there was of course 2010/11. I take it though that they're not so much a true scientific analysis so much as an individual's personal opinion? But my guess would be that Winter 2017/18 will most likely only be ranked average if not for the fact that a lot of places didn't even see any settling snow until late February or early March.

I think parts of Midlands down to the southwest of England and parts of central and south Wales have had a snowy season, it sounds like it anyway by the reports. We still got the rest of this March, April,  maybe even May.  

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Posted (edited)
25 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

I think parts of Midlands down to the southwest of England and parts of central and south Wales have had a snowy season, it sounds like it anyway by the reports. We still got the rest of this March, April,  maybe even May.  

WH..

You are correct.

Here in the central Midlands (Bham area), I have recorded 22 days with falling snow and 29 with iaying this 2017-18 season (so far).My snow falling depth is currently at 54 cms, with falls of 22 12, 8,amd 5  cms as the major events..

Frost were (37) not that much more than  days with snow laying. We seemed to get a snowfall out of most cold events.I understand that Eastern Wales performed even better. 

In 2013 I recorded 15 days with falling snow and 20 days of laying.

In 2010 I was away for the Jan and Feb and so cannot really comment,   but at the ist week in Jan, I was at 9days of falling snow and 18 days of laying snow.

Nothing else in the 1990 - 2000's rivals the snow falls in the 2 years above.

Not sure where your 'index' would rate this winter for here.

MIA  

Edited by Midlands Ice Age
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On 20/03/2018 at 19:44, Midlands Ice Age said:

WH..

You are correct.

Here in the central Midlands (Bham area), I have recorded 22 days with falling snow and 29 with iaying this 2017-18 season (so far).My snow falling depth is currently at 54 cms, with falls of 22 12, 8,amd 5  cms as the major events..

Frost were (37) not that much more than  days with snow laying. We seemed to get a snowfall out of most cold events.I understand that Eastern Wales performed even better. 

In 2013 I recorded 15 days with falling snow and 20 days of laying.

In 2010 I was away for the Jan and Feb and so cannot really comment,   but at the ist week in Jan, I was at 9days of falling snow and 18 days of laying snow.

Nothing else in the 1990 - 2000's rivals the snow falls in the 2 years above.

Not sure where your 'index' would rate this winter for here.

MIA  

East Wales and W/SW Midlands has been in the prime spot this winter for snowfalls, especially frontal events, as they have come courtesy of slider low set ups, with fronts disrupting and sinking on a NW-SE alignment through these parts crashing into cold air. The SW has also done much better than usual but it took until March, with the last 2 snow events. NE parts haven't done too badly either - but probably rank as average there, good convection at times.

Locally here I would give it an average rating, we have been poorly placed for snow, only a couple of frontal events bringing an inch or two at best. 

Overall I would rank winter 17/18 as very average in terms of cold temps, snowfall and frost.

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