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Un-named Atlantic lows 2017


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On 17/10/2017 at 10:54, Dorsetbred said:

The naming of storms seems odd, given yesterday/today’s storm(ex Ophelia) wasn’t named in the uk sequence, but the one later this week might be. Anybody know why Ophelia wasn’t named?

Because they will not be renaming ex hurricanes. Her name was ophelia.

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If the gathering storm is to have a name beginning with B, surely it should be Brexit! :-)

She had a NHC name and the UK met keeps the protocol for already named cyclones. If the next one is not named as a tropical system, it will be named by the local met agency if it warrants such.

Large waves probable around the North West Coast of England (Blackpool as an example). Peak wind gusts coinciding with High Tide.

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2 hours ago, radiohead said:

iconeu_uk1-11-77-0.png?18-11

Showing 70mph + gusts inland across the southern Midlands on this chart, that could lead to some disruption if it comes off.

 

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12Z ICON is just out and the track has shifted northward a bit. If this verified it would meet the criteria for another Red warning for SW Ireland as gusts on the coast are up to 140 km/h on this model.

Max gusts showing strong winds over southern Ireland and Wales.

iconeu_uk1-52-75-0.png?18-17

 

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9 minutes ago, radiohead said:

12Z ICON is just out and the track has shifted northward a bit. If this verified it would meet the criteria for another Red warning for SW Ireland as gusts on the coast are up to 140 km/h on this model.

Max gusts showing strong winds over southern Ireland and Wales.

iconeu_uk1-52-75-0.png?18-17

 

Not just SW Ireland either.

Parts of South Wales, West Wales and areas along the Bristol Channel coastline could experience severe gales too.

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The morning forecast the beeb was using was totally different showing the low going down to the English channel. Dunno what model it was but got contradicted by the local forecast which showed the GFS style outcome.

Anyways this has looked for us a stronger event than OPhelia for a while.

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Met Office have issued a Yellow Warning for wind valid for Saturday covering most of southern England and Wales, so far looking like this system is due to peak in intensity out west in the Atlantic before it comes ashore. If it didn't and it struck with peak intensity it would have the potential to be as severe as Ophelia was but over a much wider area, (with Ireland still included) which is the last thing they need right now what with the recovery operation from Ophelia still in full swing. Luckily it looks like it should start to abate as it makes landfall but still with a central pressure around about 980mb and predicted coastal gusts of 60 to 70mph and inland gusts of over 50mph it's still a noteworthy low pressure system but whether the warnings will be upgraded to meet the criteria of it being named Brian remains to be seen.

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12Z GFS for 21st october 2017 looks to have W & South Wales, Southern England and most of Ireland in a intense wind field but the GFS may be the most aggressive solution that I know of at the moment to the potential of a storm named (Brian)

Capture.thumb.PNG.23e0f703dda0eb71c4606b203667622a.PNG

Edited by Richard David McCarthy
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Met Office forecasts have been very consistent in terms of wind speeds for my part of the country. They're currently showing nine hours of 50mph+ gusts. 

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5 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

I'm in Manchester at the weekend,not looking good for beer garden as some high rainfall forecast .

Make sure you cover the top of the glass so the rain can't get in, you'll be ok then.

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Keeping a eye on this next low as i'll be in Yorkshire marshaling for a Y3P race, and it's likely with MWIS already forecasting 60-70mph gusts on the top of the mountains that the higher-level route will need to be revised. Certainly not going to be fun for either the racers or volunteers with 6hr of rainfall, severe windchill, and possible 70mph gusts to contend with.

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1 minute ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

Keeping a eye on this next low as i'll be in Yorkshire marshaling for a Y3P race, and it's likely with MWIS already forecasting 60-70mph gusts on the top of the mountains that the higher-level route will need to be revised. Certainly not going to be fun for either the racers or volunteers with 6hr of rainfall, severe windchill, and possible 70mph gusts to contend with.

Yorkshire 3 peaks in poor weather is tough .

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18 minutes ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

Keeping a eye on this next low as i'll be in Yorkshire marshaling for a Y3P race, and it's likely with MWIS already forecasting 60-70mph gusts on the top of the mountains that the higher-level route will need to be revised. Certainly not going to be fun for either the racers or volunteers with 6hr of rainfall, severe windchill, and possible 70mph gusts to contend with.

Ach just do a bit of paragliding you'll be finished in a few minutes with anew world record.

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5 hours ago, pad199207 said:

This is going to be another Ireland event again really bad feeling about it. I couldn’t even fathom another storm as strong as Ophelia.

Lucky so far it isn’t forecast to be as strong as her.

STATUS YELLOW

Weather Advisory for Ireland

An Atlantic Depression is expected to track eastwards over parts of Ireland on Saturday. South to southeasterly winds on Friday night will veer northwesterly on Saturday and are expected to reach yellow warning criteria, at this stage. There is potential for mean wind speeds of 50 to 60km/h and gusts of 90 to 110km/h, especially in coastal counties.

Issued:

Wednesday 18 October 2017 16:00

Valid:

Friday 20 October 2017 18:00 to Saturday 21 October 2017 23:59

 

It's yellow, same as southern parts of the UK at the moment. All about track and location. Still a little early to nail down but it looks like Southern Ireland/Wales/Middle and SW England need to look out for this one.

On the plus side it's weakening as it reaches our shores.

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1 hour ago, The Eagle said:

On the plus side it's weakening as it reaches our shores.

Only forecast to weaken slightly and the isobars still look tightly packed too me, hopefully the more Northerly track is maintained as I much rather cycle to work with a very strong Westerly wind behind me than an easterly!

Although detail is uncertain, rainfall with this system will be a lot more problematic than Ophelia was and coupled with severe gales and most trees still being in full leaf, then I fear more trees could be uprooted on Saturday in particular. This low once it reaches the UK will become more slow moving and it is only forecast to slowly fill during the weekend so suspect there will be quite a bit of headline coverage with this deep low.

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