October 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

[summer blizzard]

1 hour ago, seaside 60 said:

Just a polite question how can Sheffield be so far below average when most other places are 2c above.  

The ones above will be comparing to months end, Pit will likely be comparing to the rolling average. 

At any rate i am in Huddersfield and bar a few days ago it has not felt significantly warm. 

[Don]

16 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

I don't think it's possible to get to 15.5 from the current 11.8 to 12.0 but these forecast warm days will change the running mean to about 13,0 or even 13,5 -- however, from Tuesday on, means appear closer to 10-11 range and I would still say Ed Stone is the bettor's choice at this stage, 13.2 to 17th and 10.5 average 18th-31st gives an outcome of 12.0,

It looks like my 10.6C prediction is already off the table........

[Roger J Smith]

Slight error to report from my previous comment, Ed Stone has 12.4 C not 12.2 C, below him we go all the way to 11.7 where we find IRememberAtlantic252 and 11.6 is Mapantz. Below that the entries pick up. 

Here's the top 15 Octobers that this one may join ...

 1. 13.3 __ 2001

 2. 13.1 __ 2005

 3, 13,0 __ 1969, 2006

 5, 12.9 __ 1995

 6. 12.8 __ 1921

 7. 12.7 __ 1831

 8. 12.6 __ 1959, 2011

10. 12.5 __ 1968, 2014, 2015

13. 12.3 __ 1731, 1811

15. 12,0 __ 1818

(four tied at 11.9)

[North-Easterly Blast]

So far this month is night minima mostly in double figures that have held the CET up to the high 12s so far, as daytime temps have not been particularly notable so far this month.

We certainly are looking at a very warm first half of October at least - the CET could well be nudging above 13.5*C by next Monday.  The warmest first half of October on record is 15.1 in 1921.  The warmest first half of October in recent times was in 2011 which was 14.6 by mid-month.  1995 also saw an extremely warm first half of October, similar to 2011.

[The PIT]

8 hours ago, seaside 60 said:

Just a polite question how can Sheffield be so far below average when most other places are 2c above.  

Easy as I'm not doing by the end of the month value.

Anyway Sunny Sheffield is at 12.3C -0.3C below normal. You can see the gap closing rapidly.

[Summer Sun]

Metcheck       12.83c    +2.32c

Netweather     13.5c     +2.76c  

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

On ‎12‎/‎10‎/‎2017 at 13:04, Don said:

It looks like my 10.6C prediction is already off the table........

Looks like I'll be miles out with 10.4C too with the CET going the wrong way from now on!

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 12.3C -0.2C below normal.

Edited October 13, 2017 by The PIT

[NorthYorksWeather]

12.2c here to the 12th, 1.1c above the 1981-2010 average.

A big jump up likely tomorrow after a mean of 18-19c for today.

[cheeky_monkey]

Cloudy Edmonton is at 3.7c to the 12th which is 2.2c below normal.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield 12.4C  -0.1C below normal. Rained every day so far this month but despite this very dry 14.1mm 17% of rainfall.

[Chris.R]

The joint second warmest night of the year last night with a minimum of 16.9°C. Exceptional for this time of year. 3 dry days in a row here thanks to the foehn effect; 27 mm of rain this month, 27.8% of average. 

[Summer Sun]

Metcheck      13.14c    +2.63c

Netweather    13.41c   +3.02c

[NorthYorksWeather]

12.8c to the 14th, 2.0c above the 1981-2010 average.

Couple more rises likely into the low 13's before more typical temps are expected next week.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 12.8C +0.5C above normal

[Summer Sun]

Metcheck         13.29c    +2.78c

Netweather       13.65c    +3.26c

[Styx]

+0.9c above average down here. It looks like the 3 month run of colder than normal months is coming to an end. Unfortunate.

[Summer Sun]

Hadley has an ongoing technical problem at the moment and won't be fixed until later this week or next week on current estimates

Metcheck         13.40c      +2.89c

Netweather       13.73c      +3.34c

[ARTDEMOLE]

Met Office Hadley           13.7c.      Anomaly          2.1c.      Provisional to  15th. 

[Summer Sun]

13.7 to the 15th

2.1 above the 61 to 90 average

1.9 above the 81 to 10

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield 12.9C +0.7C above average. Looks like we will be returning too cool to cold days and mild nights. So shouldn't move much this coming week.

[Weather26]

Well at the moment it looks all of our guesses are well out unless there's a cool down within the next fortnight.

Edited October 16, 2017 by Weather26

[damianslaw]

Suspect we will hit a high point tomorrow with the CET perhaps 13.8 degrees, then a gradual climb down through the rest of the month, but odds of a below average month preety much can write off, indeed even something within 1 degree of average looks very unlikely, so yet again another very mild October - we've had many in the last 12 years.

[North-Easterly Blast]

The warmest October on record was 13.3 in 2001.  Since then the CET has been at least 13*C twice and at least 12.5*C a further three times.  It is now looking like at least another 12*C+ October is likely, unless we get some much cooler weather towards the end of the month.

[summer blizzard]

The current model runs are actually still fairly mild so a pretty slow fall in the CET (especially the Euro). I suspect the CET will end with a 12C in front of it but it does look like a horrifically mild CET.