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love that image, really tough shift at NHC with all the data from MAria and a bit of a coffee break, to peruse the Netwx hurricane thread to make sure they are keeping it real. HELLO!! HELLO NHC . Lov

I think its needless to have a go at someone for putting there opinion across. Iceberg has been probably the most useful member for this season's hurricane season, especially during Irma's period. His

Ugh. Just caught up on this as I'm on holiday... well let's just say sometimes it's not nice at all to have called something right; my points a couple of days ago about the underlying structure concer

Posted Images

9 minutes ago, chillyblast said:

A lot of pics / videos on that Twitter page, looks bad. Rainfall rates between 5 to 7 inches per hour.

Yeah... this is why that big green band on the funktop loop last night concerned me so much.

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4 minutes ago, Woollymummy said:

Looks so ominous.....not sure how up to date this image is.......

Maria.png

Pretty out of date. That's the eye making landfall.

It's moved back out over sea on the north of the island now.

 

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Just now, crimsone said:

Pretty out of date. That's the eye making landfall.

It's moved back out over sea on the north of the island now.

 

ah thankyou none of the links to uptodate images seem to load at work today :-( I will have to check at home later.

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Quote
000
URNT12 KNHC 201800
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE   AL152017
A. 20/17:40:20Z
B. 18 deg 32 min N
  066 deg 56 min W
C. 700 mb 2744 m
D. 76 kt
E. 269 deg 20 nm
F. 022 deg 85 kt
G. 271 deg 33 nm
H. 960 mb
I. 10 C / 3046 m
J. 14 C / 3044 m
K. 12 C / NA
L. POORLY DEFINED
M. C16
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1.5 nm
P. AF305 0915A MARIA              OB 05
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 102 KT 045 / 35 NM 17:50:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 205 / 11 KT
;

DAMN!

So, this was recorded just about 75 mins ago. Maria took a genuinely massive battering over PR... albeit not as much of a battering as she gave PR.

The eye is there though... she just needs to re-group and clear it out.

HDObs are showing a recorded 104mph max 10 sec wind on the way out to the NE of center. That's still a pretty solid wind, but it's about 55mph less than before she made landfall.

Just goes to show - making landfall during/just after an ERC is not good for a hurricanes health!  It's really great for the population on the ground though!

Edited by crimsone
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The ocean is going to get a whole lot warmer for re-intensification now and going back to the rain comment earlier and PR, the mountain range being right through the spine of the country would essentially have acted as one giant waterfall allowing mud, rain water and debris to flow down both sides of the island taking whatever else with it into the populated areas.

Interesting how hard Maria got shredded by landfall but the potential is still there to re-intensify but the ultimate question now is is Maria going to spend the rest of her days as a fish storm?

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Very strong convection showing again.

 

28 minutes ago, chillyblast said:

The ocean is going to get a whole lot warmer for re-intensification now and going back to the rain comment earlier and PR, the mountain range being right through the spine of the country would essentially have acted as one giant waterfall allowing mud, rain water and debris to flow down both sides of the island taking whatever else with it into the populated areas.

Interesting how hard Maria got shredded by landfall but the potential is still there to re-intensify but the ultimate question now is is Maria going to spend the rest of her days as a fish storm?

It's not so bad now, the hottest waters waters were to the south of Puerto Rico. There's still some quite hot waters ahead for Maria, but it depends how far west she tracks.

maria funktop 20-9-17 2100gmt.JPG

usatlantc.gif

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The eye of Maria had actually reformed almost immediately on leaving the island. What she needed to do was to strengthen that closed eye and clear it out... What she's actually done is formed an outer eyewall at 36 miles, with the inner 16 mile eyewall now open southwest. Instead of clearing her eye, she started a new ERC.

Consequently, far from being the Cat 4 we expected, or even the Cat 3 we might have thought... she's now only Category 2. I mentioned earlier that PR really gave her a good bashing, and it would appear that it did indeed do so. Pressure is still hovering at just below 960, but as soon as that ERC makes a little progress, I would expect it to begin dropping again - but unless she forms another pinhole eye (and I don't see why she would), then I wouldn't expect the pressure to exactly bomb. I mean, it might, but I'm not expecting it... she has far too much re-organising to do... though as with ERCs more generally, she's liable to become a wider storm.

The image below shows it all really - she's got a massive hole in her, and it isn't the central eye. For every mb she could be dropping, she's leaking out just as much pressure. It'll be, at my best guess, 3 to 4 hours or so minimum before she stands even a chance of making progress in terms of any meaningful re- intensification.

 

Screen Shot 2017-09-21 at 01.49.15.png

In the Dvorak image below you can see that she's just starting to pull around that black band of thicker cloud/colder tops as she repairs her CDO, making it more central and even than, well, entirely lopsided as per the beginning of the loop. Maria has plenty of work to do, but she's getting there.
59c310f079f24_ScreenShot2017-09-21at02_07_20.thumb.png.fae472277fe0cc9d05749d2654ee7020.png

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/15L/15L_floater.html

Edited by crimsone
added dvorak image
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She's really struggling to hold together. Looking really lopsided, seems to be plenty of heat input from the south, but with the land interaction and less heat coming from the North it doesn't want to form up. Pressure is still around 960.

 

maria geocolor 21-9-17 0721gmt.JPG

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