Hurricane Maria

[cowdog]

2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

That is a very rapid intensification, could it reach Cat 4 or 5 by landfall?

5 would be pushing it; 4 looks a significant possibility by Puerto Rico.

[Fiona Robertson]

Just a thought. Both Irma and Jose ended up further west than the warning cones initially suggested. Maria seemed to be headed due west in a couple of satellite images before reverting to WNW, just as Irma did. Is this going to be a rerun of Irma, forever moving further and further west?

[FetchCB]

5 minutes ago, cowdog said:

5 would be pushing it; 4 looks a significant possibility by Puerto Rico.

Agree 5 would be pushing it .Discussion #7 highlighted the chances of rapid intensification

The Rapid Intensification Index of the SHIPS model
forecast better than a 50 percent chance of 25-30 kt of
strengthening during the next 24 h, and about a 35 percent chance
of 55 kt of strengthening during the next 48 h.  Based on this, the
intensity forecast has been increased to show Maria becoming a
major hurricane in 24 h and a category 4 hurricane in 48 h.

This was from a base of 70 kt so a 35% chance of reaching 125kt ( 140 mph) in 48hrs

[Fiona Robertson]

She's just been upgraded to a cat 2.

[FetchCB]

7 minutes ago, Fiona Robertson said:

Just a thought. Both Irma and Jose ended up further west than the warning cones initially suggested. Maria seemed to be headed due west in a couple of satellite images before reverting to WNW, just as Irma did. Is this going to be a rerun of Irma, forever moving further and further west?

This is, I suspect, going to be a forecasters nightmare.

The basic premise as always is that the Maria will edge around the high pressure sitting in the Atlantic just like Imra did. However the point at which it starts taking a more northward shift is down to the modelling of the high pressure, something which with the exception of UKMet and ECM , was not handled well with Irma

Looking at the ECM track days 3-5 seems to be heavily influenced by Jose ( which is due to stall and loop back towards Maria) , in the impact it has on the Atlantic high . My suspicions are that if Jose does not stall and loop  back in the North East then the High pressure will build behind it and allow Maria to take a more westerly path than would otherwise be the case

[FetchCB]

Not sure if anyone has posted link before but link shows real time Flight path & observations graphic with the ability to add different layers

 

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi?basin=al&mapping=cesium

 

 

[Fiona Robertson]

4 minutes ago, FetchCB said:

This is, I suspect, going to be a forecasters nightmare.

The basic premise as always is that the Maria will edge around the high pressure sitting in the Atlantic just like Imra did. However the point at which it starts taking a more northward shift is down to the modelling of the high pressure, something which with the exception of UKMet and ECM , was not handled well with Irma

Looking at the ECM track days 3-5 seems to be heavily influenced by Jose ( which is due to stall and loop back towards Maria) , in the impact it has on the Atlantic high . My suspicions are that if Jose does not stall and loop  back in the North East then the High pressure will build behind it and allow Maria to take a more westerly path than would otherwise be the case

What is it about Jose? The dratted thing keeps doing loop-de-loops! It's like "The Magic Roundabout".

 

Also another question for you. I've been keeping an eye on Lee which had weakened to a tropical depression, but recent sat images show it a bit more organised again. Is this gonna come hard on the heels of Maria and do the same thing?

[MattTarrant]

23 minutes ago, FetchCB said:

This is, I suspect, going to be a forecasters nightmare.

The basic premise as always is that the Maria will edge around the high pressure sitting in the Atlantic just like Imra did. However the point at which it starts taking a more northward shift is down to the modelling of the high pressure, something which with the exception of UKMet and ECM , was not handled well with Irma

Looking at the ECM track days 3-5 seems to be heavily influenced by Jose ( which is due to stall and loop back towards Maria) , in the impact it has on the Atlantic high . My suspicions are that if Jose does not stall and loop  back in the North East then the High pressure will build behind it and allow Maria to take a more westerly path than would otherwise be the case

I completely agree, however, all the models seem to fail to model these 'wobbles' that Hurricanes have. Irma had several of these where her WNW path was for a short period corrected to a more westerly path. The subtlest of changes can make such a big difference. I have attached the ensembles for Irma when it was in a relatively similar location to Maria, only a couple had her tracking along the route she virtually took....

Link to Weather Bell: https://www.weatherbell.com/

Edited September 18, 2017 by MattTarrant

[FetchCB]

15 minutes ago, Fiona Robertson said:

What is it about Jose? The dratted thing keeps doing loop-de-loops! It's like "The Magic Roundabout".

 

Also another question for you. I've been keeping an eye on Lee which had weakened to a tropical depression, but recent sat images show it a bit more organised again. Is this gonna come hard on the heels of Maria and do the same thing?

Not sure tbh. It has a look of a TS about it and it may well be that thunderstorm activity is intensifying briefly whilst being in favourable conditions created by the outflow from Maria. This is not likely to last and Lee is due to be affected by shear, whether it becomes organised enough to withstand the shear though I guess is the question

[AderynCoch]

Maria not far off major hurricane status now. Thankfully the islands which got battered by Irma *should* escape a direct hit (unless the track moves northward - safe to say Barbuda is in the clear from Maria's core but the islands to the west need to remain vigilant).

Lee is toast.

[Iceberg]

Very surprised they went with a cat 2 rather than a cat 3. They own models are now initialising as a 100kt cat 3 and the recent pass tended to confirm a cat 3 so an update in 1-1.5hrs certain. 

I am not a firm believer in any models we 4-5 days plus    Lots of change in ridge patterns and troughing over the eastern states not to mention Jose  

 

[knocker]

H/t Hurricane tracker

Scenario 1 is the most likely at this time, showing the ridge breaking down due to #Jose and allowing #Maria to move N and maybe out to sea.

Scenario 2 shows another possible outcome, taking #Jose out of the picture & featuring a strong ridge, which would steer #Maria toward U.S.

[Cog]

Around the time the Maria hits the Bahamas, ECMWF is showing the pressure a good 40hPa lower than the GFS, but both models are more or less in agreement on the path.

It's interesting to see the remnants of Jose could still be stubbornly sticking in the same spot even as far ahead as next weekend if the models are to be believed. (At least until Maria comes along and hoovers up what's left of it.)

 

[FetchCB]

the last couple of frames on visible satellite possibly showing the eye clearing out.

[Iceberg]

Some very high cold towers working in the eye wall. Could be more intensification. 

[FetchCB]

looks like hurricane hunters due to intercept eye in about 30 mins so we will get an idea then. their last pass recorded a 2mb drop since the last advisory 

[Iceberg]

I agree re eye clearing out. The deeper convection is wrapping round, the eye wall strengthening and the centre clearing. 

[Iceberg]

Pressure dropping rather quickly on that run 958mb and winds up to 111kts this will soon be knocking on cat 4 so nhc must update to at least a cat 3

[Summer Sun]

Cat 3 now

Edited September 18, 2017 by Summer Sun

[Iceberg]

Now a cat 3

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Maria is undergoing rapid intensification.  The aircraft
reported 700-mb flight-level winds of 115 kt in the northeastern
eyewall, along with reliable-looking surface wind estimates from the
Stepped Frequency Microwave radiometer as high as 104 kt.  In
addition, the estimated central pressure inside the 10 n mi wide eye
has fallen to 959 mb.  The initial intensity is increased to 100 kt,
making Maria a major category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. 

Also a forecast to a strong cat 4 now not far from a cat 5. 

[MattTarrant]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Cat 2 now

Cat 3 Sir, not cat 2.

[FetchCB]

This is reflected in the intensity forecast, which now calls for
Maria to become a category 4 hurricane in 12 h and reach a possibly
conservative peak intensity of 130 kt in about 36 h

(my bold and underline)

 

so 10mph below cat5

[FetchCB]

I fear for those in Puerto Rico.

They have in no way shape or form recovered from Irma, power is still out to a lot of the island, so questions marks about being able to get the message out about the severity of the storm that may come their way.

A lot of debris with a wind in excess off 130mph become hugely destructive missiles alongside weakened buildings, all the hallmarks of a tragedy in the making

[mountain shadow]

3 hours ago, cowdog said:

5 would be pushing it; 4 looks a significant possibility by Puerto Rico.

I wouldn't say 5 is pushing it now. Gone from 1 to 3 in no time at all.

[FetchCB]

Just now, mountain shadow said:

I wouldn't say 5 is pushing it now. Gone from 1 to 3 in no time at all.

Agreed, NHC have extended the favourable conditions from 24hr to "24hr and possibly longer" This extension being the reason they have given a higher  intensity forecast