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Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

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Not much change on this evening's GFS, With another Northerly pushing over the UK by Thursday next week into the weekend, After that into Wk2 the Jet continues to stay to the South.

 

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Hi everyone I’m new I’m hoping for some bitter cold from  the north and east this winter I hope uk gets good dumping this time anyway weather looks likely to turn much cooler next week with some frosts maybe some of the white stuff on hills and  mountains  up north ..

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8 minutes ago, Londonsnowman said:

Hi everyone I’m new I’m hoping for some bitter cold from  the north and east this winter I hope uk gets good dumping this time anyway weather looks likely to turn much cooler next week with some frosts maybe some of the white stuff on hills and  mountains  up north ..

F254AFDF-3483-4687-B66F-A726A7B6FDFC.png

DC5CD342-2ED4-43DA-9AC6-1EC5DE388E98.png

Hi There ,a warm welcome from all of here on Netweather....Enjoy!

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La la land cold old style bonfire night from slightly different style charts on both ecm and gfs. Suspect it will show the normal mild bonfire night tomorrow.

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18 minutes ago, Londonsnowman said:

Hi everyone I’m new I’m hoping for some bitter cold from  the north and east this winter I hope uk gets good dumping this time anyway weather looks likely to turn much cooler next week with some frosts maybe some of the white stuff on hills and  mountains  up north ..

F254AFDF-3483-4687-B66F-A726A7B6FDFC.png

DC5CD342-2ED4-43DA-9AC6-1EC5DE388E98.png

Welcome,hope you enjoy the silly season up coming!

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Here again for another winter rollercoaster ride. Always much more livelier on here during the winter months,look forward to reading everyone's views and I'll share mine aswell :)

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Well half term has just started for some here in Wales and it still looks like the coldest weather will occur Sunday night and Monday but other than that, it should remain fairly mild by day and certainly a lot drier and less windier than of late which is good news, it seems here on the south coast will see the mildest temperatures between now and next Wednesday (except Monday) typically 13-15C. There is a chance of it turning colder towards the end of half term but that's a long way off. So all in all some very decent weather for getting out and about but some nights will be very chilly so for those staying in caravans/awnings you might want to think about taking extra blankets / sleeping bags / duvets. Have a great week.

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5 hours ago, karlos1983 said:

Interesting. Met office go for settled 2nd half of November with temps around average, possibly below average in the south.... That's quite a difference to the Atlantic driven weather you are anticipating. 

With the AO & NAO set to go positive I would agree with you.... wonder what they are seeing to go for settled conditions :cc_confused:

Met forecast says turning unsettled everywhere during last third of November. A long way off though so best to keep powder dry for now. 

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1 hour ago, blizzard81 said:

Met forecast says turning unsettled everywhere during last third of November. A long way off though so best to keep powder dry for now. 

Evening All , Chocolate teapot comes to mind with any met office long range. Interesting outlook as there is loads of Northern blocking going on with the ops at the moment, So a colder than average start to November....

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The EPS 8-13 anomaly this evening is also indicating a positively tilted trough just to the south east of the UK and with the upper flow in the eastern Atlantic weakening and diverging with a branch tracking south east this could also lead to a slack surface area of low pressure over the southern  half, and to the south.of the UK. Interesting to see how this pans out.

Edited by knocker
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1 hour ago, blizzard81 said:

Met forecast says turning unsettled everywhere during last third of November. A long way off though so best to keep powder dry for now. 

Cold and unsettled will do... they probably just forgot to put the word cold in. they wouldn't wanna be seen as ramping now would they...:D

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I’m just going to throw this out there but there’s talk of a storm effecting New England I think it’s called storm 93L, lots of moisture and warmth being thrown up, will it strengthen the jet? Put more warmth in to the Arctic, do you think the models have factored this in yet?? Still learning.

fromey 

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2 hours ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Evening All , Chocolate teapot comes to mind with any met office long range. Interesting outlook as there is loads of Northern blocking going on with the ops at the moment, So a colder than average start to November....

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Whilst the meto is not perfect (what or who is?) I have still to come across any other weather organisation that can touch it with regards to  medium to long term forecasts. 

Edited by blizzard81
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9 minutes ago, fromey said:

I’m just going to throw this out there but there’s talk of a storm effecting New England I think it’s called storm 93L, lots of moisture and warmth being thrown up, will it strengthen the jet? Put more warmth in to the Arctic, do you think the models have factored this in yet?? Still learning.

fromey 

Lol we're all still learning!!

I guess the more warm air than can be pumped poleward now the better the odds on disrupted vortex therefore better odds on us getting a winter...

 

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I still cannot upload images so will keep this very brief.

The front that has been hanging around finally clears so today will be a much better day for all with more sunshine albeit with temps down two of three degrees C from yesterday as the high pressure moves in from the west. Although the day will start off quite foggy in places in England before clearing during the morning. Later tonight cloud and rain will push into the north west as the high cell slips south

Thus tomorrow sees the south hanging on to the dry weather but increasing cloud and rain north of the midlands and getting quite windy in Scotland.

Regarding this morning's gfs there isn't much new to say vis next week until the Friday. The NW wind tomorrow veers northerly overnight as a depression swings south over Scandinavia and then into eastern Europe and then becomes very light as another high cell moves east leading to a quite widespread air frost Monday morning. But the tenure of the high is more transient than usual as  the upper low to the south west becomes activated and a trough to the west develops with the fronts impacting north of the midlands by Tuesday 00 bringing rain and strengthening winds. The front quickly clears south east and apart  from a passage of a weak front on Weds the high pressure reasserts itself until Friday.

That is when the energy and troughs emitted from the strengthening Canadian vortex start gaining the upper hand in the Atlantic facilitated a great deal by the earlier movement of the cut off low and by 18 Friday surface fronts are already impacting N. Ireland and the west coast of the mainland. These, accompanied by rain and strengthening winds quickly traverse the country early Saturday leaving the UK in a very fresh showery north westerly on Sunday.

So if this run is to be believed then the vortex/trough to the NW becomes the major player with the medium strength jet tending a NNW/ESE track

We shall see.

Actually after a quick look at this morning's GEFS 7-12 anomaly this is still not convincing.

 

Edited by knocker
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That almost semi permanent high the other side of the pole over western Alaska/eastern Russia does us no favours at all. When it balloons all it serves to do is fire up the pv over north eastern Canada which in turn fires up the Atlantic. This has happened over the last few winters now and looks to be there again this year. 

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The em continues to form a shallow low on the trailing front next week and at T144 (Thursday 00) we have a key analysis.

The low west of Portugal with the high pressure to the west of this ridging north east west of Ireland dissecting the two main troughs, one over the east coast of Greenland and the other the west coast of Norway with the UK in a col.

What next?

By 12 Friday the Greenland trough is east of Iceland and the north of the UK is in a fresh NNW airstream..with the cut off upper low still quite active west of Portugal. At this point the site I'm looking at has temporarily stopped updating. A quick look at the NH 500mb analysis at this point indicates that that the cooler air to the NW is winning with quite a strong WNW flow suppressing the Atlantic high pressure with only the south of the UK still under the influence of the trough and slack gradient to the south/south west

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On Thursday UKMO has us in a cooler northwesterly flow

UKMOPEU00_144_1.png

ECM, on the other hand, has the low further northeast allowing pressure to stay a bit higher over the UK

ECMOPEU00_144_1.png

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After a chilly day on Monday it should quickly turn mild (or you could say very mild) for the 1st November. Here in South Wales we're looking at  getting back to the mid teens once again which has been very frequent here in last few weeks occasionally high teens but the closer to Winter we get the more 'above average' these sort of temperatures become. It may still become colder and more unsettled though towards the end of half term but that's a long way off, in the meantime it's set fair for at least a few days with variable amounts of cloud. 

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A blink and you'll miss it northerly on Sunday

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After that it is a slow transition into something more unsettled for early November 

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Another winter season begins, another case of models getting overexcited in the Greenland region. Compare GFS T192 with T144:

gfs-0-192.png  gfs-0-144.png

For long-timers here, this was completely expected, I daresay?? Ridging into Greenland vs troughing over Canada modelled at D8-D10 = almost always troughing into Greenland when modelled at D5-D7.

GFS the culprit this time. 

Is there a model that does not have this tendency?

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Morning all :)

A rare visit from me this time of the year. Moving through the GFS 00Z, ECM 00Z and GEM 00Z OP runs I see plenty of agreement for a fairly benign period through most of the next week but with an increasing trend for the trough to slip SE toward us and put us in what would be a chilly WNW'ly flow into November. Temperatures in that flow would be average at best and cold at worst with frosts where winds do fall light.

Beyond that and what I don't see yet is a "classic" draw of long-fetch SW'lys from the tropical Atlantic. GFS OP into FI tries to drop the trough through the British Isles and build heights behind it but all this is a long way off.

We often see HP close to the UK during November - sometimes it hovers to the SW for a long period but this year there are hints (no more than that) of a less stable position.

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