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Model Output Discussion 01/09/17


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A bit of a swing in the models today as they back away from continued warmth to more seasonal conditions-

infact we go from Summer to almost winter sunday - sunday with a 15 degree swing @850

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Good morning Gang ,Its great to be back reading the Posts on Net weather .My Wife passed away two weeks ago ,she had Pancreatic Cancer which spread ,but enjoyed life since she was diagnosed back in Ap

Good afternoon gang ,its nice to be back reading all the posts again ,although i have been lurking .(Thanks to all friends on here for my much appreciated messages over the loss of my wife recently ,T

So sorry to hear that mate Dont want to clutter up this thread but im sure i speak for everyone in wishing you the very best and hope you will be ok.

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24 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Looking beyond Monday, the models are now reverting back to what they were showing 48 hours ago, a marked downturn in temperatures, with heights building to the north and the jet swinging in on a more southerly track, kicking aside any attempt at azores/eurohigh ridge. It makes sense, such a deep closed low pressure to the west of Ireland will promote height rises to the north, and this is evident in both ECM and GFS output today.

So after a balmy couple of days ahead for the south and east, and stormy conditions Mon-Tues in the west, its back to more typical mid-late October fayre with wind and rain from the west, perhaps the first settling snow of the season down to modest levels in the Scottish Highlands and increased risk of air frost as the week wears on.

Along with the cooler air, will come cleaner and sunnier conditions to the NW as well, which will be welcomed.

Aye, some Sun would be nice, it's been demoralisingly dreary for the best part of a week now, the only slight interest being flooding on Wednesday!!

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Today Mosto f England and Wales will start cloudy, with mist in some places, but generally this will lift in most places with more sun than yesterday. and getting quite warm in the WAA from the south, perhaps touching 24C. Probably remaining cloudy with drizzle in N. Ireland and the NW of England. Scotland strarting off with rain and blustery winds that gradually move south and clearer behind.

Tomorrow of course is dominated by TS Ophelia which is just over the tip of south west Ireland at 12Z  Thus some destructive winds in Ireland and very strong winds just to the east effecting the west coast of the UK and later perhaps more inland in the north as Ophelia tricks more to the NE. Obviously if you are in any of the areas likely to be effected close attention should be paid to the updates from the relevant professional bodies. From a personal perspective it would be interesting to be down on the old Ocean Weather Station 'Kilo' at the moment 45N 16W. And while all this is unfolding still quite warm with the WAA further east in England.

PPVA89.thumb.gif.f0051169fc527b3d2ce484b780420e19.gifPPVG89.thumb.gif.53c9416692894015a2df787ede05fe7d.gifPPVI89.thumb.gif.25707d89fbd6ae3e6b7832ea7ba85ebc.gif

Further to the above by 06 Tuesday Ophelia has filled rapidly and is over north east Scotland. It then continues to move away rapidly ENE and a quite complex slack area of low pressure moves in producing some sunny intevals with periods of intermittent rain before a more organised depression tracks east into southern England on Thursday bringing rain and strong winds and the temps are back to average. This then turns north east into the North Sea over the next 24 hours, filling as it goes, leaving the UK in a showery north westerly.

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But as can be seen from the last chart the next low is already on it's way into southern England arriving on Saturday which really just sets the tone for this unsettled picture and a return to the quite familiar pattern involving battle between  the cooler air in the energy driven troughs tracking east  and ridging from the warmer air to the south. The detail, vis the weather over the UK,  rather depends on the timing and phasing of this. Suffice it say unsettled with temps varying around the average.

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Edited by knocker
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Models this morning sticking to the theme of yesterday, a strong jetstream anchoring on a southery tracking squeezed in by height rises to the north and also the SE, the Uk acting as a funnel for it - a very unsettled week ahead, very wet for some, later next week looks possibly stormy again, and next weekend looks classic late October unsettled fayre..

Longer term, signs of more pronounced ridge/height developments to the north, enabling perhaps something drier and colder to appear.

Edited by damianslaw
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Yes Knocker, Another potential storm for next weekend to keep an eye on, Again on a very Southerly track this time effecting the channel.

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Edited by Polar Maritime
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10 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Yes Knocker, Another potential storm for next weekend to keep an eye on. Again on a very Southerly track.

That appears to be, with the gfs anyway, because post the passage of Ophelia it ridges the Euro high NW and thus has a negatively trough over the Atlantic with the jet forced south and the depressions taking a more southerly route. Just my take on it. Of course the detail of all of this is a long way from being nailed.:)

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Edited by knocker
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ECM shows the potential for a stormy spell next weekend which could lead to the arrival of the 2nd named storm of the season in Brian

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Large parts of Europe and the UK are in no rush to get colder air in still warm quite widely

Edited by Summer Sun
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Looks like cooling down to me Gav.:)

Quite a drop in temperatures as we head in to the week after the passing of Ophelia although after the unseasonable warmth it is inevitable i guess.

The Atlantic trough digging se pulling much cooler air with it across the UK.Scandinavia going much colder too.

ECM Tomorrow                                         Friday     

ECE1-24.GIF?15-0ECE1-120.GIF?15-0                                        

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Gefs 2m temperature graph showing the dip by several degrees from the dizzy October high expected tomorrow(Warks.)

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With the expected nationwide rain and wind modelled for the the end of the week a much more Autumnal feel for all so quite a big change especially for areas down south 

 

Edited by phil nw.
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Hello Folks , After the Drama of the last few days ,a Pond of calmer waters descends over the uk  ,then the jet stream fires up towards the end of the week and brings us potentially severe gales one to watch and welcome to October perhaps the most volatile October for a good few years ,just like Octobers should be:yahoo:

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There is certainly a chance that a secondary low could sweep across the UK next weekend, a few model runs have shown this risk.

                           ECM                                                           GFS

ECM1-144.GIF?15-0   gfs-0-132.png?12

Interesting to see an area of high latitude heights develop as a result of the track of Ex-hurrican Ophellia, this will complicate matters in how the Atlantic trough interacts with this and as such how much wind and rain reaches the UK. Those heights are predicted to sink in week 2 with a restoration of a milder and changeable pattern with heights to the south and low heights to the north west.

EDM1-144.GIF?15-0   EDM1-192.GIF?15-0   EDM1-240.GIF?15-0

Still a long way out and never underestimate higher heights to our north (nothing wintry on offer but it could steer the jet further south to bring more widespread wind and rain).

Of course we have tomorrows action as well.

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Odd to have two extremes happening at the same time, low to mid twenties in central/southern England and the risk of storm force winds in Western parts and of course Ireland which still looks to get a major hit.

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Have you ever seen a better run than the 0z CFS from 0z 9 monther on the 15th October?, run it from the start of Jan into Feb, that would be the best month of weather ever in this country.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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The ecm is tracking next Saturdays low across N. England so gales further south for a time. After that there have been hints of a paattern change upstream and perhaps some renewed amplification in the Atlantic so need to how this pans out, or not.

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45 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

At a first glance, you may think both frames are for today's storm. Actually, one is for Friday. Scary.

3-289UK.GIF?16-6  108-289UK.GIF?16-6

On the 00Z, the latter storm turned into this:

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One to watch.

Indeed, a real potent storm shown on the 6z GFS, bringing quite widespread gales and severe gales to numerous locations

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