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Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

phil nw.

By phil nw.
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Bartlett High Aficionado

Bartlett High

Posted
  • Location: porth (Welsh valleys)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and very cold.
  • Location: porth (Welsh valleys)
Posted
1 minute ago, booferking said:

Im not being a kill joy but i will only be fully onboard when UKMO shows same as ECM GFS and hopefully that will be first thing in the Morning!!!

Agreed!

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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
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Posted

ECM - Very good

GFS - Very good

GEM - Very good

Ensembles & Means - Very good

Background signals - Very good

MetOffice: Forecasting cold until at least mid-December

UKMO - Rubbish

I know where my money is. Brief milder blip tomorrow, very cold week, briefly milder next weekend then much colder as the high re-amplifies Northwards? Rinse and repeat type pattern, it seems.

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted

As quick as it turns its nose up short/medium term.

Gfs 'again' will not let waa go begging at greenland..

Its very consistant now with this evolution...

One way or other!

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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
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Posted (edited)

The jet riding over the top of the mid-N Atlantic block is like a wriggling snake on the 18z. It flattens out next weekend to allow less cold air originating from the NW Atlantic to move toward the UK before the jet buckles north again to allow a northerly to reload to end the weekend and start the following week! No matter how the upper flow tries to supress the block it just bounces back north even stronger! The block is there in that region for the long-run I think ...

Edited by Nick F
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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

The 18z has found the n Russian ridging earlier than the 12z which should mean the three wave standing pattern lasts for all of fi - it should but this being the gfs means we probably end up with a huge  p/v somewhere! 

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

It brings the -8's in quicker on this run:)

gfsnh-1-186.png?18

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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted

Oh my giddy aunt, things are getting very interesting now. Ukmo aside, it feels like momentum is building on a rapid scale not seen for 7 years. 

 

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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

Let's just take a minute to look at these charts.....just beautiful at 192.  When we think what we've 'endured' over the the last few winters.......

gfsnh-0-192.png?18 gfsnh-1-192.png?18

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes the Atlantic seems ripe for re-amplification , didn't see much of that last December!

Absolutely, we haven't seen any re-amplification in years, cause we haven't seen any Amplification in the first place!

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted

Taking some glory away from our now established AT-block...

Some credit needs apply to the russian ridge!..

Its got a handle on a feed into the shallow polar heights' and is the unsung hero going forwards id suspect....

Gfs18z 

Screenshot_2017-11-26-22-23-27.png

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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
Posted

That's both ECM and GFS ops suggesting a Nly reload around Mon 4th Dec. Hopefully it will tap into some deeper cold, as indicated, than we see this week, thanks to less WAA into Greenland and the arctic area around it prior ...

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abruzzi spur Experienced

abruzzi spur

Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 105 m (top floor 120m)
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 105 m (top floor 120m)
Posted

Greenland seems less green with waa

Iceland out of normal GIN flow

Uncertainty in weather hotel corridor

But cold on tricycle axing mild for now

Here's Snowy!

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

If the UKMO is wrong it will go down as one of the epic fails !

Close to surpassing even some of the GFS specials of recent years . The GFS has shown absolutely no interest in following it on the 18hrs run.

 

 

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Bartlett High Aficionado

Bartlett High

Posted
  • Location: porth (Welsh valleys)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and very cold.
  • Location: porth (Welsh valleys)
Posted
1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

As expected models homing in on a fabulous greenland block!

Note the pattern is 8 days down the line & the cold pool just that little more extensive

-8c widespread across the UK

IMG_1379.thumb.PNG.5349f2ef6bf357754ce011802621e548.PNGIMG_1378.thumb.PNG.308610c5e4b41cc67f111b2019807d79.PNG

Ooohh Matron!

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted
2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Oh my giddy aunt, things are getting very interesting now. Ukmo aside, it feels like momentum is building on a rapid scale not seen for 7 years. 

 

Hopefully not another 7 years:)

anyway,nice cold spike bang on down the country, and what looks to be a trough feature coming down too.

gfsnh-0-204.png?18gfsnh-1-204.png?18

 

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted

Much better cold spreads...

Gaining momentum' as sharply in-touch with all ridging...

In and around the pole!!!

gfs-1-210.png

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Ravelin Maestro

Ravelin

Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
Posted
1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

If the UKMO is wrong it will go down as one of the epic fails !

Close to surpassing even some of the GFS specials of recent years . The GFS has shown absolutely no interest in following it on the 18hrs run.

 

 

If the UKMO is right it'll be an even more epic fail, for both the GFS and ECM. 

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted
4 minutes ago, abruzzi spur said:

Greenland seems less green with waa

Iceland out of normal GIN flow

Uncertainty in weather hotel corridor

But cold on tricycle axing mild for now

Here's Snowy!

Are you tight isobar:rofl:

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