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Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

phil nw.

By phil nw.
in Forecast Model Discussion

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted

Anyone work the doors??

Chuck this fella out!!!

Elongating with every run!!!!!

Screenshot_2017-11-26-18-31-36.png

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Singularity Maestro

Singularity

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
Posted

ECH1-168.GIF?26-0

Phew - goes to show the importance of that special angle to the ridge that Steve M was talking about earlier :good:

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

Steady as she goes:D

ECH1-168.GIF?26-0man_jumping_behind_couch_gif_by_lucky435

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted

This is going to a stonking run later on , just  like the GFS with a v cold Arctic blast - heh, the express newspaper was right all along , maybe !! ??

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted

Starts redemption...

12z gfs...

Dear 'oh dear . .what next!!!

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Day 10 Maestro

Day 10

Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
Posted
1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

Anyone work the doors??

Chuck this fella out!!!

Elongating with every run!!!!!

Screenshot_2017-11-26-18-31-36.png

Your analogies are just as entertaining as the models, keep it up :good: (only joking by the way).

Meanwhile the ECM 168:

ECH1-168.GIF.thumb.png.f1e3318c32005a23125f357d8eb671a2.png

Imagine another Decemeber to remember is on the way, we just don't quite know it yet! :cold-emoji:

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Singularity Maestro

Singularity

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
Posted

ECH1-192.GIF?26-0 ECH0-192.GIF?26-0 

Elaboration not required, just :yahoo:

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

Ecm 12z phase 1 looks good as in increasingly cold with showers turning more and more wintry from the north with snow supporting cold uppers and widespread frosty nights with icy patches. Great charts for the last week of autumn!☺???...Hoping phase 2 (week 2) turns out as lovely as the 00z..:santa-emoji:

PS...I'm typing this from behind the sofa!:crazy:..sofa so good:cold-emoji:

24_mslp850uk.png

48_mslp850uk.png

72_mslp850uk.png

72_thickuk.png

96_mslp850uk.png

96_thickuk.png

96_mslp850.png

120_mslp850uk.png

 

168_mslp500.png

hidingbehindcouch.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

This is fantastic model watching at the moment,i am actually getting a tad exited:yahoo:lol

that is two very good runs from the ecm so far:D

ECH1-192.GIF?26-0

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted

Does seem to be that some of the comments on here today have a "da vinci code" element to them? ??Anyway ecm looking ok in contrast to the ukmo.Tbh tho its a thin line regarding the antics with the low pressure not splitting the block.not finished yet and more twists to come imo!!!

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted

Gets there!.

Atlanic is in the library being quiet.

Momentum is hugely in our favour here.

And the warmth just has eyes on the pole!

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Weathizard Accomplished

Weathizard

Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
Posted (edited)

The UKMO run looks very strange in comparison with most other models. Very different.

 

Not looking past day 5/6 for now as it seems the real eye candy is always at day 9/10! 

IMG_8520.GIF

IMG_8522.GIF

Edited by Weathizard
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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted (edited)

The jma smelling the northerly now too with a closed hp cell going foreward,is a lot better from it's earlier run:)

12z/06z

JN192-21.GIF?26-12JN204-21.GIF?25-0

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted
1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Well you couldn't make that up...

ECH1-216.GIF?26-0

Shortwave spoiler around Iceland :rofl:

More heights building to the west of Greenland and up from siberia though, this   Has so much potential for a very prolonged cold spell, not just a week or two. Great, especially as I'm overseas this winter ?

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LRD Accomplished

LRD

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=12&time=216&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref - GFS

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&run=12&time=216&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref - ECM

ECM isn't as good as GFS but it ain't bad at all. General theme maintained. UKMO still a worry but it looks isolated

 

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Well you couldn't make that up...

ECH1-216.GIF?26-0

Shortwave spoiler around Iceland :rofl:

Just dont wanna have it!

Look at the large-scale holding pattern..

Then you have little charlie large spuds-around-icelandic' rims...

Saying ya names not down!!!!

Screenshot_2017-11-26-18-57-42.png

Edited by tight isobar
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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted
2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

The UKMO run looks very strange in comparison with most other models. Very different.

 

Not looking past day 5/6 for now as it seems the real eye candy is always at day 9/10! 

IMG_8520.GIF

IMG_8522.GIF

Folk are missing out what is in front of them. Is this eye candy? At day 2 a sight to behold after all this woeful muck of the last few years. The first wave of cold has been picked up very well. 

14B72679-D6A2-4E13-B667-1B04D7BC5FA0.thumb.gif.da1daa411f4274f9ecc03d3e7121b6df.gifEBFE8D2D-D5FE-4215-9A67-E24663348CF4.thumb.png.43673d76de7ac6f3493ca429838dce4c.png4898E654-8AAF-4DA1-88E5-F9D86FE8EA16.thumb.png.1ddeab74e4b3aa0d57c3d101467ada38.png

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

By spoiler you mean snow maker when it sinks south?

It won't be a snowmaker...develops too much, need it to be a much weaker system and sink SSE. All it does is serve to slow the progression down

ECH1-240.GIF?26-0

Proper Greenland blocking now back at day 10 (a very good chart btw)

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