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Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

phil nw.

By phil nw.
in Forecast Model Discussion

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markw2680 Accomplished

markw2680

Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
Posted
9 minutes ago, london-snow said:

I don't see any watering down of charts just differentating variations of possibilities currently all output is cold. The key differences are from +72 - +144 on how we go forward. 

 

Take a a chill pill and enjoy the ice train...

Mate just expressing my opinion but believe me I’m very chilled 

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LRD Accomplished

LRD

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted

I rate the UKMO model but if they have this wrong (which I hope they have), it's reputation will be a little dented in my eyes

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
9 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Very hard to judge what would happen next on that crappy UKMO T144hrs output.

It looks like it will amplify the Pacific troughing as it moves east which down stream would sharpen up the pattern over the eastern USA but the issue is that shortwave phasing .

Its not a given  that we can’t hang onto some colder conditions but it’s impossible for the UKMO to look anything like tonight’s GFS as you’re  past the point of no return by T144hrs.

 

 

 

UKMO is really turning into the 2017./18 misery model.

As you say Nick nothing is straightforward for those wanting UK cold, and i mean nothing.

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A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
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Posted
30 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Mind!..

Ya would'nt want that on ya nose as a whart.....or worse!..

And just other scope on ridge apply..

At western-seaboard/usa

gfsna-0-300.png

Whatty what what? :blink2:

You seem to know your stuff T.I, but just wondering if you can rephrase it so the rest of us can join in :good:

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LRD Accomplished

LRD

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted
6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

UKMO is really turning into the 2017./18 misery model.

As you say Nick nothing is straightforward for those wanting UK cold, and i mean nothing.

Yep. And until that's showing cold I will always be cautious. The Met's outlook into December is fairly encouraging and could be seeing a 'battleground UK' scenario. Although it doesn't sound great for the 2nd half of he month

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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted

With the Met going for cold into Mid-December it almost seems like they're discounting the UKMO model to me. MOGREPS must be pretty solid on a continuation of cold for them to be going for that outlook.

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Radiating Dendrite Experienced

Radiating Dendrite

Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
Posted
3 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

Whatty what what? :blink2:

You seem to know your stuff T.I, but just wondering if you can rephrase it so the rest of us can join in :good:

Think he has been at the mulled wine!

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
9 minutes ago, LRD said:

I rate the UKMO model but if they have this wrong (which I hope they have), it's reputation will be a little dented in my eyes

If the ukmo had been right earlier this week we wouldn't be looking forward to an Arctic Northerly during the week ahead..hope the Gfs is right and fingers crossed for the Ecm..Hoping this is the start of something special!:)

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LRD Accomplished

LRD

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted
1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

If the ukmo had been right earlier this week we wouldn't be looking forward to an Arctic Northerly during the week ahead..hope the Gfs is right and fingers crossed for the Ecm..Hoping this is the start of something special!:)

Memory might be playing tricks but wasn't the UKMO the first model to pick up the cold this week or at least the cold over this weekend? I could be wrong of course and, yes, let's hope GFS is right. But I'd always favour UKMO over GFS. 

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mulzy Accomplished

mulzy

Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
Posted (edited)

12z GEFS rolling out and they are a significant upgrade to the 6z set.  The retrogression signal is still strong.

gensnh-21-1-240.png

gensnh-21-1-300.png

Edited by mulzy
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
5 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

With the Met going for cold into Mid-December it almost seems like they're discounting the UKMO model to me. MOGREPS must be pretty solid on a continuation of cold for them to be going for that outlook.

I think you are right there, Daniel. But it is good that they don't always defer to their own model. However well it usually performs?:)

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carinthian Maestro

carinthian

Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
Posted

Looking at the latest chart from UKMO, not good . Seems if it wants to take the Atlantic trough northwards away from the Azores. This can only lead to sinking of the high close to the West of British Isles. There will hopefully be a correction in later outputs to dig in the trough and undercut the high. This will be the best solution to retrogress the high polewards again and open up Northerlies again as mentioned in there medium range forecasts. Its a shame we have no access to these charts past 144t but I am sure this latest run at 144t does not fit in with the general consensus shown by the other models. The form horse this past few weeks has been the persistent lower heights near to the Azores and this has been a prominent factor of the blocking scenario.This latest run from UKMO wants to scupper that.

C

UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

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ScottishSnowStorm Explorer

ScottishSnowStorm

Posted
Posted

Everyone is moaning about how bad the UKMO is during the 12z run and while it isn't as good as the GFS or ECM i don't see it being all that bad the only place it differs is the low in the atlantic 

20171126_172151.thumb.png.157db756f504e676d5334de9a80e204a.png

If this low pressure was modeled a bit further south and with the WAA being modeled aiming up the western side of greenland then it would be a similar evolution to the ECM and GFS and there is scope for this to change in future runs 

20171126_172247.thumb.png.ab7c031b52b5ee92b8ce188f1b43bea6.png

So i don't see it as being all that bad it only misses in one key area and could easily come in line with the other two in future runs

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, LRD said:

Memory might be playing tricks but wasn't the UKMO the first model to pick up the cold this week or at least the cold over this weekend? I could be wrong of course and, yes, let's hope GFS is right. But I'd always favour UKMO over GFS. 

From my memory the ukmo  has been very reluctant to show any cold for the uk for a while now whereas the gfs  / ecm  and even the gem have been more cold friendly.:)

Edited by Frosty.
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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted
1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

From my memory the ukmo  has been reluctant to show any cold for the uk for a while now whereas the gfs  / ecm  and even the gem have been more cold friendly.:)

Yep, ukmo is the cold scrooge most of the time. Problem is it can be on the money! 

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

Whatty what what? :blink2:

You seem to know your stuff T.I, but just wondering if you can rephrase it so the rest of us can join in :good:

Sorry..

The usa seems to have evolved into an-reverse omega block!.

Our own waa/atlantic ridge' has an eastern seaboard cousin- that being.. has allowed trough sepage via alaska/canada and converted an eye watering synoptic of cold air advection to a large part of mid/western usa...

gfsna-0-300.png

Edited by tight isobar
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Singularity Maestro

Singularity

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
Posted

There is one thing I've noticed about UKMO over the years and that's a tendency to be too fast with troughs crossing N. America in the 5-6 day range. In fact I vaguely remember a discussion somewhere referring to this as a genuine bias. I sure hope my memory is not playing some kind of desire-skewed tricks on me here!

Truly amazing to see the GFS 12z recreate the 00z ECM so closely, the main difference all the way out at day 10 being that the lows intruding on the N. Greenland area more in the case of GFS (no surprises there).

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted

Great GFS, that is a true biting Arctic flow with bitter windchill and harsh frosts on snow fields - fingers crossed it has ECM support again.  

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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted
16 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

With the Met going for cold into Mid-December it almost seems like they're discounting the UKMO model1/b] to me. MOGREPS must be pretty solid on a continuation of cold for them to be going for that outlook.

Yep, the Exeter update is not interchangeable with UKMO I’m not sure what it is, but UKMO has been performing poorly the EC has taken the lead here, as it usually always does. Hopeful EC will not disappoint tonight.

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Great GFS, that is a true biting Arctic flow with bitter windchill and harsh frosts on snow fields - fingers crossed it has ECM support again.  

Yes it would be a real kick in the wotsits if EC sided with ukmisery.

But lets face it...would anyone be too suprised..

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted

A real poinient/evolutionary 12z ecm tonight....its getting tight and the conclusion is near....

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted

A real poignant/evolutionary 12z ecm tonight....its getting tight and the conclusion is near....

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