Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

[Dennis]

18 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC  Is fabulous...Atlantic blocked...-NAO 

the setting could give a long time of colder reloads

[Newberryone]

I don't think one can afford to become too complacent when especially the likes of the UKMet is not fully supportive of any potential reload post 144. Energy spilling over the top of this high come Fri or so could very well be a game changer as time and time again the ECM has this bias for over amplifying, especially in the latter stages. Hopefully just a blip, but met office here already talking about it becoming less cold by the end of the week.

Edited November 26, 2017 by Newberryone

[Frosty.]

December would be a lot of fun if the Gfs 00z is right with some very disturbed often cold spells with heavy snow at times for some of us!

Edited November 26, 2017 by Frosty.

[Newberryone]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

December would be a lot of fun if the Gfs 00z is right with some very disturbed often cold spells with heavy snow at times for some of us!

The PV obviously intent on setting up residence for Dec in its usual location so. ?

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, Newberryone said:

I don't think one can afford to become too complacent when especially the likes of the UKMet is not fully supportive of any potential reload post 144. Energy spilling over the top of this high come Fri or so could very well be a game changer as time and time again the ECM has this bias for over amplifying, especially in the latter stages. Hopefully just a blip, but met office here already talking about it becoming less cold by the end of the week.

I agree...it will become less cold at the end of the week..all models agree on that

[northwestsnow]

5 minutes ago, Newberryone said:

The PV obviously intent on setting up residence for Dec in its usual location so. ?

Nope...absolutely nothing on the 00z runs to suggest that.

[booferking]

Ecm mean in good agreement for reload.

[comet]

Well if its prolonged cold you want then you could not ask for much better chart than the ecm t240 chart below.

The ukmo run this morning is again less than enthusiastic on cold reloading, but both the ecm and gfs  see further amplification in the north Atlantic. The ecm being by far the best for cold prospects from the north and east.

For most of us though a rather cold week to come with a lucky few seeing some snow.

 

 

 

 

[summer blizzard]

Euro is utterly fantastic with a near perfect reload, high pressure to our west, north and over north-western Russia and by day 10 the jet is so weak that the low trying to sink the high is barely 995mb. 

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, booferking said:

Ecm mean in good agreement for reload.

 there will be some very happy campers if EC 00z and the mean are correct...-NAO baby .

[summer blizzard]

2 minutes ago, comet said:

Well if its prolonged cold you want then you could not ask for much better chart than the ecm t240 chart below.

The ukmo run this morning is again less than enthusiastic on cold reloading, but both the ecm and gfs  see further amplification in the north Atlantic. The ecm being by far the best for cold prospects from the north and east.

For most of us though a rather cold week to come with a lucky few seeing some snow.

 

 

 

 

Note how even the colder parts of the vortex have become disjointed by day 10.

[northwestsnow]

Well its going to be beautiful this week with sub zero nights and cold days...a brief pause and then boom from the north west ...lets hope Exeter come up with a dishy update later...if they have faith in EC and its mean it will surely be a wintry prognosis...

Its looking good at the moment..

[Ice Day]

So we have our first cold spell in the bank so to speak. Whilst its not going to be anything special, many of us could see some flurries at least and it will feel bitter.

It's also now highly likely that there will be a milder interlude lasting a couple of days, then what happens after is the big question. The models are toying with a northerly/north easterly/easterly outbreak. The ECM this morning showing probably the best set up for the UK seen so far this winter.

What is really noticeable is that none are showing a vigorous Atlantic and whilst that's the case we're in with a chance of something more severe down the line. More ups and downs to come but fascinating viewing at the moment. 

Edited November 26, 2017 by Ice Day

[Gavin Hannah]

13 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

So we have our first cold spell in the bank so to speak. Whilst its not going to be anything special, many of us could see some flurries at least and it will feel bitter.

It's also now highly likely that there will be a milder interlude lasting a couple of days, then what happens after is the big question. The models are toying with a northerly/north easterly/easterly outbreak. The ECM this morning showing probably the best set up for the UK seen so far this winter.

What is really noticeable is that none are showing a vigorous Atlantic and whilst that's the case were in with a chance of something more severe down the line. More ups and downs to come but fascinating viewing at the moment. 

 

Good summary. The ridge starts to take form over night tonight. This lasts the week and should continue to bring cold nights and days. Scotland looks good for further snowfall, esp on the high ground. Would expect fine settled weather everywhere else.  The end of the week sees slightly milder temperatures. But should still be fine and settled. The HP has parked itself to our west.  Further into FI, it goes for a mega reload, but takes a full week to get there. 

As mentioned, the Atlantic is a no show. If we can keep the Atlantic shutdown, then this could be the pattern this month.  If we get a few reloads of this ridging, all it takes is for it to setup just right and it could put us in the freezer for a prolonged spell.

Roll on winter!!

 

 

 

 

Edited November 26, 2017 by Gavin Hannah

[mulzy]

Extended eps not as good as last night.  Picking up a west based NAO signal.  Start of a trend or a blip?

[northwestsnow]

14 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Extended eps not as good as last night.  Picking up a west based NAO signal.  Start of a trend or a blip?

Faulty.

[Interitus]

20 hours ago, tight isobar said:

Its sub-Asian warm...

not canadian!

The Canadian warming is not named by the location of the warming, its basic characteristic is that it is an intense development of the Aleutian anticyclone (stratospheric) which moves over Canada and displaces the vortex to the Eurasian side.

[karlos1983]

Question while it’s quiet if I may. can Volcanic eruptions have any impact on weather models?

[Frosty.]

Just now, karlos1983 said:

Question while it’s quiet if I may. can Volcanic eruptions have any impact on weather models?

I believe mount st Helens eruption in 1980 did

[karyo]

2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Question while it’s quiet if I may. can Volcanic eruptions have any impact on weather models?

Large eruptions can certainly affect weather patterns. I am watching the Mount Agung eruption at the moment. So far, it is not a large eruption but this can change quickly.

[SMU]

Want a greenland high-

this is where to look at 168

ECM mean !!!!

notice the jet getting a kick North-

& the daddy 2010

s

 

[carinthian]

Morning all from a snowy Katschberg. Low to the SE of us and now in a colder NE flow producing the goods again after a milder couple of days, but with little melt on the pistes, glad to report. Nice to see the UK having wintry charts for this past weekend and into next week. The UKMO charts not really showing a reload of cold at 144t but ECM really going for that. However, I have attached a chart below that interests me this morning from the American Navy Model. This relatively new model specializes in the 7/8 day outlook and has powerful data processing at its disposal . Its is now showing a different outcome to the bigger models as shown below , with falling heights to the SW of the British Isles and high cell shifting NE wards with low pressure over much of mainland Europe. A developing ENE flow on the cards ? Whatever is the outcome its great watching the models at the moment trying to evolve the cold scenario present for many.. Good luck for you snow lovers much better than this time last year!

 C

Edited November 26, 2017 by carinthian

[khodds]

I think an eruption has to have time to take effect, so that the ash gets trapped in upper levels of the atmosphere and this then brings temperatures down, it has to also circumnavigate the globe somewhat too - Karakatoa in 1883 is a good example of this. It was a huge eruption.

[Scandinavian High.]

Interesting charts still on offer cold week to come with frost and some wintry showers about to .Something little less cold later in week but not mild still chill in the air so what happens after that do we get a reload from the north west or something from the east The high pressure to north east looks be getting stronger and to north west I think there is good possibility of something colder coming from the north east or east as head in to December still a lot of changes to come .

[Summer Sun]

UKMO has high pressure centred just to the west at t168 keeping most of the UK dry 

If we look further west UKMO and ECM (below) are very different on the eastern side of Canada