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phil nw.

Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

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1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

good old days Paul! then a few weeks later, 90's ruled, I loved winters

archives-1991-2-8-0-0.png

Was the exception not the rule, as it always tends to be through the years, 2008-2013 put to bed your so called christmas pudding, I’m quite sure you’re the reincarnation of that long gone Victor chap. 

29 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Yes indeed. Classic “wishbone” effect from a northerly wind. However I believe the significant snow of Dec 1990 was from a northerly. Will have to check that out in the archives. 

Mm there will be moisture at times, when winds veer to a northeasterly direction the east coast will see the ‘shower clouds’ coming in off from the North Sea - with toasty SSTs could be interesting, a right mix makes it fun, not so fun for the forecasters. North York moors I foresee there being deep snow cover. I think pretty much anywhere will be unfortunate to not see some wintriness at one point, the frigid ice days however that’s a different matter altogether. However, today we have seen the chance of something more than cold i.e. very cold elevate a tad. 

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I know it's the icon model but just waiting for the 18z to come out,it is an upgrade to the 12z in regards to the trough seperation in the Greenland area at 120 where the heights get into the pole forcing that Svalbald trough further south,trough over uk a bit further south too

iconnh-0-120.png?23-18iconnh-0-123.png?23-12

now onto the 18z gfs:)

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I think I see a band of sleet/snow passing over the south of Ireland tomorrow afternoon. Could it be a case that js grabs all the snow lol

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15 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Ventrice going all out on this.

The pole going alight.

Vortex in a real wobble.

@-AO/-NAO....

The NAO/AO is as you were from last nights:)

Edited by Allseasons-si

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ECM continuing to stick to its theme of a strong atlantic ridge building northwards towards heights over the Pole, with warm air advection uo west side of Greenland and a deep long wave trough anchoring down through scandi - lowering heights through central europe - key to any sustained colder spell.

GFS has swung around to ECM. UKMO similiar to ECM. So it looks like the rest of November will be relatively cold, with wintry showers, heavy snowfalls on higher ground in the north, perhaps some temporary cover on lower ground at times, and risk of frost, but nothing especially cold, but it will feel very raw in the strong northerly winds.

Longer term - GFS has caught my eye, it is showing very strong heights over Greenland throughout, indeed it  ends with a 1070mb high - which puts a dampener on any quick atlantic westerly moving through, indeed it would probably mean a southerly tracking jet, which could create an undercut situation with an eventual easterly - mmm getting carried away with myself, but the synoptics shown by both ECM and GFS tonight, are very conducive to an easy path towards an easterly, not saying this will happen.

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Just looking back at the last two days of eps mean output and from day 15 all the way back to day 7, the story is of Atlantic upper ridging becoming more marked over the 4 runs. That's not too bad a place to be I guess

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3 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

ECM continuing to stick to its theme of a strong atlantic ridge building northwards towards heights over the Pole, with warm air advection uo west side of Greenland and a deep long wave trough anchoring down through scandi - lowering heights through central europe - key to any sustained colder spell.

GFS has swung around to ECM. UKMO similiar to ECM. So it looks like the rest of November will be relatively cold, with wintry showers, heavy snowfalls on higher ground in the north, perhaps some temporary cover on lower ground at times, and risk of frost, but nothing especially cold, but it will feel very raw in the strong northerly winds.

Longer term - GFS has caught my eye, it is showing very strong heights over Greenland throughout, indeed it  ends with a 1070mb high - which puts a dampener on any quick atlantic westerly moving through, indeed it would probably mean a southerly tracking jet, which could create an undercut situation with an eventual easterly - mmm getting carried away with myself, but the synoptics shown by both ECM and GFS tonight, are very conducive to an easy path towards an easterly, not saying this will happen.

yes Damianslaw,i would give it a green light by gettiing carried away,but still too far out to call on this,like i said earlier,that Siberian hp cell is growing on each model run so i would stop at this junture for now

amber-light.jpg?fit=227,354&ssl=1

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At 90 the 18z is pretty similar, a little bit less amplified but barely

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3 minutes ago, Jonan92 said:

At 90 the 18z is pretty similar, a little bit less amplified but barely

Mainly cos the shortwave takes slightly longer to seperate again!!but it still looks really good with the amplification!!

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Gfs not backing down!!looks amazing at t120 hours!!heights goin through greenland and north easterly winds for the uk!!

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As long as the Svalbard shortwave behaves this should be a cracker, look at the nice straight isobars, should be able to get some better uppers down with this run.

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Decent run thus far, just variations on a theme really.  Lovely looking chart at 120

gfsnh-0-120.png?18 gfsnh-1-120.png?18

Heights still building up into Greenland and beyond.  

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At 120 it's a stait northerly(no squiggly lines):D and and wesward correction on the heights into Greenland although the heights are not as strong,mmm!

gfsnh-0-120.png?18gfsnh-0-126.png?12

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18z even more amplified than the 12z with the loop up into 90N now !!

IMG_1319.thumb.PNG.68b803eb58d7ca5b29ede41d652faf5f.PNGIMG_1318.thumb.PNG.657a4663a4337eafd744079119d39a31.PNG

 

watching that deep cold move south !

S

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Yes!!!, here she comes!!!!

gfsnh-0-120_esw4.png

-8c into N. Scotland with -12c lurking fast behind it - this is gonna be a stonker!!!!

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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A solid punch straight into the pole via greenland....

With plenty of backing warmth...

Direct full northerly also...

This is getting v- promising...

All minor blips getting ironed out..

Run'to run

Edited by tight isobar

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gfsnh-1-144.png?18

 

gfsnh-5-144.png?18

Direct northerly.   Going to drag those very cold uppers down!

Edited by carsey

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Updated 120hr fax chart not agreeing with gfs take on things but 528 dam line makes a welcome return and sweeps back south to reach UK south coast.  

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GFSOPNH18_138_1.png
What a NH view that is!, with an 1040mb high in the arctic too! Just need to send that cold air over Svalbard our way.

With the N Atlantic flow cut off from the continents they should turn cold very quickly. Would be even better if energy went under the North Atlantic block

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The only thing missing from making this a 10/10 is another bout WAA toward Greenland to strengthen blocking and lock us in. Nit picking I know.:D

gfsnh-0-156.png?18

Edited by Mucka

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I think the icelandic low will bridge with the one west of Greenland

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Night all - a pretty good day

dont watch the rest of the 18z !

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