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phil nw.

Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

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Very good Euro run. 

To answer the query of those concerned in the later stage it looks to me as if the reason for the pressure fall is that the low at day 6-8 becomes negatively tilted but too slowly to prevent the core of the heights being sunk and absorbed into the Azores. 

At day 10 though it does look like enough of the ridge made it north (and heights are sufficiently strong to our north east) that the low would probably make it through south enough to just reinforce the northerly. 

 

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12 minutes ago, Britneyfan said:

It's all too marginal, any proper wintry weather you need -8 uppers, this is all too marginal for anything meaningfull, but at least it will be chilly and frosty! Hopefully upgrades as we head towards next week 

For something "meaningful", yes maybe. Then again I woke up to a covering of wet snow this morning and the uppers were nothing like as cold as -8, and I'm <100m ASL too. I also saw falling snow on my way to work this morning, and all the hills above about 300m were white. 

It's only November, so we should take any chance we get, meaningful or not, and be happy with it. 

 

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The UKMO looks similar to the ECM at T168hrs.

The complicating factor is that shortwave ahead of the main upstream troughing , that needs to disrupt se not head ne after T168hrs.

That could still happen , energy distribution is poorly handled by models in the longer range .

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By 168/192 the EC mean has the UK under a stagnant looking high- i would speculate some places could see some harsh frosts to usher in December-

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Just now, blizzard81 said:

Ecm control for debilt falls off the cliff post day 10. 

Would assume thats a very cold trough sweeping in on the eastern flank of the High..

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EC ensembles - by D8 most have high pressure between Dublin and Iceland. Mainly cold and dry, and precip. (if any) mainly confined to SE. 

On this occasion, the mean is a pretty good guide.

Edited by Man With Beard

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Just now, sebastiaan1973 said:

Yes, the control is very cold at the end of the run. Easterly winds!

eps_pluim_dd_06260.png

eps_pluim_tt_06260.png

Yes if thats an easterly then it shows how quickly the continent can get very cold!!

 

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1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

EC ensembles - by D8 most have high pressure between Dublin and Iceland. Mainly cold and dry, and precip. (if any) mainly confined to SE. 

On this occasion, the mean is a pretty good guide.

Yes its beginning to look unlikely there will be sufficient retrogression to drag down the really cold uppers but it will be interesting to see how cold it will be overnight under a high with stagnant cold air- short days early Dec could get really well below zero in frost hollows etc :)

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Fwiw, the ec control undercuts the Atlantic ridge which provides for the euro trough to re invigorate which brings colder uppers from the east - the uk and most of n Europe under blocking.

If that were to happen. It was take a good spell into a memorable one It will be good to see if any of the 18z ensembles go towards this route later on 

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42 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Looks like there is undercutting in the Atlantic to me and some ridging towards Scandy- i wonder if a scandy high is out of the question?

The ecm det run also had a low with associated fronts west of the high at T168 but it doesn't undercut the high but forces the leading front through it you can see it as a feature on the T240 analysis, not that this will verify of course.

ecm_mslp_uv850_natl_8.thumb.png.167cdae145ba7eda89e13e82922028cb.pngecm_mslp_uv850_natl_11.thumb.png.78592d721efd40bbbd0cdbbadcdc56dc.png

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Just now, bluearmy said:

Fwiw, the ec control undercuts the Atlantic ridge which provides for the euro trough to re invigorate which brings colder uppers from the east - the uk and most of n Europe under blocking.

Sounds too good to be true- therefore probably is.

Think cold and frosty start of Dec looks good- hoping not see any High to our north being pushed SE towards Europe with the jet going over the top- if i were to put my money that's where i'd probably out it if i'm being honest.(Although i think it would be a very slow process and involve a good frosty sepll initially.)

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52 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

Classic northerly where only the coastal fringes get some snow showers? no thanks

Yes indeed. Classic “wishbone” effect from a northerly wind. However I believe the significant snow of Dec 1990 was from a northerly. Will have to check that out in the archives. 

Edited by Paul_1978

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19 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Yes indeed. Classic “wishbone” effect from a northerly wind. However I believe the significant snow of Dec 1990 was from a northerly. Will have to check that out in the archives. 

Reply to self...,

Just checked the (new?) ECM northern hemisphere archives. 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?mode=0&month=12&day=9&year=1990&map=0&hour=6&type=era&region=nh

December 1990 was a strange evolution (follow it through from 1/12/90). Northerly to a North Easterly to a full on Easterly. 

Looking at the vortex then (seemingly quite strong) then the current situation is a totally different ball game. 

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Very happy tonight with ecm cold wintry outlook upper air temperatures not special yet but if it continues it only get colder and colder..:D

CE1C61FB-E5A1-4E23-8A20-FF09A4D56047.jpeg

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Support grows!!

The cold/colder outlook gains momentum.

An' intresting beer run up-coming..

Keep looking for the peach!

😉

temp4.png

2701.png

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13 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Evening all:)

very good model output again today and here is my two cents worth,and i will start with the 850 temps,if the models are correct nearer the time my theory is that the -temps will come down by 1or 2c maybe a bit more at a push,and if we get some type of continental flow going,the 850's doesn't need to be -5 or below,you can achieve snow with -1 to -2 uppers,short travel over sea and dry continental air is the reason,whereas if you have northerlies,northwesterlies or even westerlies,you need the uppers lower than -5 because of the long track over sea:)

now i will have a look at what is going on from today's outputs,i am picking this baseline/timeframe(@240 hrs) as it is relevant to what i am going to discuss and not because it's way in FL cos it is

i have been keeping an eye on developements over in Siberia that the hp cell over there has been growing more and more on each and nearly every run(some don't go out that far) from most models and is showing on the mean charts now,and there has been a slight westward shift in pattern because of this siberian block putting more force on the trough and i would not rule out this trough going further south

ecm and gfs mean at day ten

EDH1-240.GIF.thumb.png.3b6d623394c0826e02b164326a842447.pnggensnh-21-1-240.thumb.png.fb1d00007fb8c0274062620ecb60c531.png

ecm and gfs op at day ten+ the control and jma at 192(the control being a cold outlier) as can be seen on the dutch ens below

ECH1-240.GIF.thumb.png.70c97e7374e9194d9e9c26c1b7d3a1df.pnggfsnh-0-240.thumb.png.d0d1782d72e8bfd8e6bc9c778021e470.pnggensnh-0-1-240.thumb.png.d55fefa873b499a2175ea587e94fd859.pngJN192-21.thumb.GIF.88149b107a3eb0fe8a5234b034376e35.GIF

eps_pluim_tt_06260.pngeps_pluim_td_06260.png

wind direct still shows a dip into easterlies around the 29th/30th,the op,control and gem show that with the majority of the ens too

eps_pluim_dd_06260.png

the 500mb height anomoly's from the NOAA shows more ridging into the Atlantic from the last couple of days,big chunk of pv over eastern Siberia and a horseshoe wedge of heights from Atlantic into the pole and down into mid Siberia/eastern europe.

610day_03.thumb.gif.d6be57e7e071dfba212ec7438d7fec15.gif814day_03.thumb.gif.65652e87e7c3d0c5785a12a496314db4.gifDPU16znXUAAMQU6.thumb.jpg.e033be5379f9d4d7bd7ae6ad35c91743.jpg

 

 

 

DPU16znXUAAMQU6.jpg

Ventrice going all out on this.

The pole going alight.

Vortex in a real wobble.

@-AO/-NAO....

Edited by tight isobar

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I reckon we will have an epic winter. I reckon we will have a potential 1979 on the cards.

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59 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

A quick summary of the models and general overview as we head towards the start of Winter.:)

 

0XNZb_s-200x150.gif.a4a26cd4107e7e4991f8605cc1c3fc6c.gif

 

 

Well that sums things up bloody perfectly :)

steady as she goes. 

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