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phil nw.

Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

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1 minute ago, Geordiesnow said:

The shortwave over Svalbard is one culprit I feel but also the lack of any real deep cold up there anywhere(uppers are not barely even touching -20 up there) is playing a part here, I have seen colder WNW'ly flows being forecast than this Northerly but maybe climate change is playing a part because its hard to imagine a similar set up would produce uppers betwen -4 and -6 only. in the 70's and 80's as the PV was stronger back then. Who knows though.

I definitely agree with your theory that its better to get a period of VI before some attacks on it, even in 2010 there was some zonality first and I don't think zonality in first 2 thirds of November automatically equates to a reduced chance of a cold winter, however, I do think that a strengthening PV over Greenland / N.pole in October does.

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cold, but nothing to get very excited about to be fair, especially for us southerners. Cant complain considering what we have endured in recent years

nice synoptics anyway that could develop into something interesting later. Or it could just sink!

 

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10 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Anyone know why the cold uppers aren't flowing south, I'm pretty sure its not warm SST anomalies as you would think they would move south but just moderated, they are just sitting there, up until now you could see why they aren't moving south, the alignment isn't quite right on previous runs or there are shortwaves cutting off the flow early but its like they are just sitting there on this run, there looks to be continuing unabated WAA up the West of Greenland and looks to me like there are no spoilers in the last few frames?

It looks like the downstream Scuero ridging later on cuts off any cold to our ne from heading west.That Siberian lobe is growing nicely but it is some distance away and it needs the ideal angle of flow to get it closer.We have a decent Atlantic pattern but this time it fails further east.

ECH1-192.GIF?23-0ECH0-192.GIF?23-0

All academic at that range of course.In an amplified pattern as you know everything has to fall just right for us.Likely changes will show as we get closer,as usual.

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5 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

It looks like the downstream Scuero ridging later on cuts off any cold to our ne from heading west.That Siberian lobe is growing nicely but it is some distance away and it needs the ideal angle of flow to get it closer.We have a decent Atlantic pattern but this time it fails further east.

ECH1-192.GIF?23-0ECH0-192.GIF?23-0

All academic at that range of course.In an amplified pattern as you know everything has to fall just right for us.Likely changes will show as we get closer,as usual.

Could we grow our own cold pool out of this set up? Or atleast one across Central Europe to tap into, I mean the sun is not in the sky as long now and land will cool quicker than the sea. It's definitely starting to pool going by the later parts of the ecm and I just think the uppers nearer the time will be lower than projected. I hold much hope.

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I definitely agree with your theory that its better to get a period of VI before some attacks on it, even in 2010 there was some zonality first and I don't think zonality in first 2 thirds of November automatically equates to a reduced chance of a cold winter, however, I do think that a strengthening PV over Greenland / N.pole in October does.

Even if the whole of December is zonal, then you got a chance later on in the season where traditionally the jet does start to slow and cold chances increases but for me, I would not mind seeing the poles having a rock solid PV over then get attacked by building heights over the Norwegian sea and we go from there basically. Also aslong Canada and the US is 'warm' then that is an added bonus. I mean people worry about the PV and seem to forget that in the 70's and 80's the PV used to be a lot more organised and dense and cold spells still occurred giving the right set ups.

Another issue I notice in the modern times is a lack of a PV dropping in Western Russia, last year actually saw this and I was quite excited too see it and how it plays out but in the end it got swept back to its usual place of Eastern Russia and into China leaving Scandi/Western Russia starved of a deep cold pool.

It says it all when I have not seen one ECM run which has the -8 line entering the UK during this period of model watching.despite set ups on papers that look good to produce those sort of uppers.

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10 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I definitely agree with your theory that its better to get a period of VI before some attacks on it, even in 2010 there was some zonality first and I don't think zonality in first 2 thirds of November automatically equates to a reduced chance of a cold winter, however, I do think that a strengthening PV over Greenland / N.pole in October does.

Hope you don’t mind me asking, but what does VI stand for? :) 

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On 11/17/2017 at 13:48, Snowy Hibbo said:

finally after 6 months of above temps and rainfall we are starting to see a pattern change it had to happen at some point and this for us coldies is the best time i would not be surprised if the next few months we see a lot more dryer and HP dominant weather and throw those seasonal models in the bin:D

 

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2 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Hope you don’t mind me asking, but what does VI stand for? :) 

this is probably one of a flurry (see what i did there lol) of answers but its Vortex Intensification.

Edited by bobbydog
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2 minutes ago, Pembroke Dangler said:

Could we grow our own cold pool out of this set up? Or atleast one across Central Europe to tap into, I mean the sun is not in the sky as long now and land will cool quicker than the sea. It's definitely starting to pool going by the later parts of the ecm and I just think the uppers nearer the time will be lower than projected. I hold much hope.

That can happen, more commonly over Europe rather than ourselves though. Still the issue of those cold uppers crossing a warm North Sea can moderate them very quickly. My posts as usual are negative but we can't hide away from the facts that we are looking at a Northerly that never really gets all that cold and that a North Westerly from the Atlantic has produced colder uppers than this in the past.

At the end of the day, its snowfall what people are after, frost and fog I don't mind but the current set up does not suggest too much of that because of the wind so we are looking at a set up where rain showers around the coasts will be the norm, sheltered and inland areas should be sunny as we are in polar maritime air with maximums ranging between 4 and 8C roughly and minimums in most areas hovering around if not just above 0. Just seems a waste of a good set up imo.

Of course if the GFS model is more accruate with its generally colder uppers whatever the set up, then its a different storey, from my experience in Northerlies, if the wind is off shore, you need uppers of around -7 and lower to produce snow showers, most areas the ECM is showing uppers of around -4 to -5 which is not cold enough for snow showers.

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+168 mean chart and the entire UK is under at least -4 uppers. 

9E103306-C614-4B4B-97EE-1D413C7A48BD.thumb.png.532e5897c1cdf949a17666054ade23e0.png

Edited by karlos1983
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The ecm is way more amplified than this mornings run!!all round there has been upgrades this evening!!lets hope the 18z does not spoil the party!!

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It's all too marginal, any proper wintry weather you need -8 uppers, this is all too marginal for anything meaningfull, but at least it will be chilly and frosty! Hopefully upgrades as we head towards next week 

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3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Mate no offence but you have moved to Morecambe - it literally snows there once every 50 years- you will need uppers  of -12 to get sleet..:rofl:

Anyway, joking aside i'm happy the models are still promoting northern blocking and no flat zonal jet that have dogged recent winters,pick of the bunch has to be GFS, but in the interests of consistency i don't think it will be correct.

Stick with EC/UKMO - will be interested to see ukmo 168 this evening.

I believe this is it....

BF731158-EDE2-4893-A646-DAB9DDE6EA1F.thumb.png.7ce6f03aca6e396baa3ead35d2876da8.png

EDiT: Or is that the 00z  :cc_confused:

Edited by karlos1983
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Just now, karlos1983 said:

I believe this is it....

BF731158-EDE2-4893-A646-DAB9DDE6EA1F.thumb.png.7ce6f03aca6e396baa3ead35d2876da8.png

The problem is with those, you cant see enough, it looks like the high is becoming more circular (cut off from very high latt) but you cant be 100%

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6 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

+168 mean chart and the entire UK is under at least -4 uppers. 

9E103306-C614-4B4B-97EE-1D413C7A48BD.thumb.png.532e5897c1cdf949a17666054ade23e0.png

That’s good if you ask me, enough for wintry precipitation.

Further S upon nightfall I’m sure that marginal element will lessen a fair bit. Every single time folk fret about the uppers, get the right synoptic in place and the cold air will come, sometimes it takes a while for the models to truly get a grip of it. I’d expect short term upgrades on the micro level.

Edited by Daniel*
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1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

I believe this is it....

BF731158-EDE2-4893-A646-DAB9DDE6EA1F.thumb.png.7ce6f03aca6e396baa3ead35d2876da8.png

Looks like there is undercutting in the Atlantic to me and some ridging towards Scandy- i wonder if a scandy high is out of the question?

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2 minutes ago, Britneyfan said:

It's all too marginal, any proper wintry weather you need -8 uppers, this is all too marginal for anything meaningfull, but at least it will be chilly and frosty! Hopefully upgrades as we head towards next week 

In the past all models seemed to have a tendency to underestimate the cold and snow was often a last minute surprise 

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2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

That’s good if you ask me, enough for wintry precipitation, further S upon nightfall I’m sure that marginal element will lessen a fair bit. Every single time folk fret about the uppers, get the right synoptic in place and the cold air will come, sometimes it takes a while for the models to truly get a grip of it. I’d expect short term upgrades on the micro level.

I’m very happy with that, no fretting from my camp! I’m fretfully happy :hi:

@northwestsnow looks like an undercut to me.negatively tilted.... slide baby slide :diablo:

Edited by karlos1983
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I am back for another winter! The models look good, my money is on the ecm

Anyway, if we had -4 uppers over us for a number of days wouldn't the air just be getting colder and colder and the temp would keep dropping? 

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23 minutes ago, Pembroke Dangler said:

Could we grow our own cold pool out of this set up? Or atleast one across Central Europe to tap into, I mean the sun is not in the sky as long now and land will cool quicker than the sea. It's definitely starting to pool going by the later parts of the ecm and I just think the uppers nearer the time will be lower than projected. I hold much hope.

Yes that’s possible but it would be more at the surface level rather than higher up. Even when we see those very cold easterlies , the deep upper cold doesn’t last forever and needs a topping up .

What we’d like to see is a lobe of the PV ejected into the flow . Of course cold is cold even if it’s just at the surface and  we’ve seen some snow battleground scenarios with 850’s not that cold.

Convective snow showers need deep upper cold , frontal snow less so.

Overall my glass is half full this evening and there’s room for positive changes in terms of the depth of cold.

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7 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I believe this is it....

BF731158-EDE2-4893-A646-DAB9DDE6EA1F.thumb.png.7ce6f03aca6e396baa3ead35d2876da8.png

EDiT: Or is that the 00z  :cc_confused:

Aye this is the 12z

ukm2.2017113012_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.f84871ab600449d8197707789509521a.png

The high is a lot further east compared to GFS

gfs2.2017113012_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.7acb8b7eaf319aad09603517d973deb1.png

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3 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

Classic northerly where only the coastal fringes get some snow showers? no thanks

Yes please bank that but its the Cannon folder so wont happen only following the Euros from now on even if the GFS shows narnia charts:)

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