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phil nw.

Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

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Afternoon all :)

Plenty of options on the table as we move into December. The main difference between the 06Z OP and Control is the former slides the HP to the SE from mid Atlantic allowing a weak Atlantic flow to resume while the Control keeps the HP further north and intensifies the core to 1045 MB over the Alps with a strong ridge back NW over the British Isles so if you want cold, frosty, foggy conditions the Control is one to bank.

Oddly enough, and I'm not sure if it's cause or effect, the OP keeps the PV very weak and disorganised while the Control returns very low heights to Greenland and re-invigorates the PV in its usual place.

I would say about a third of the Members keep some short of blocking around Greenland even out to T+324 and no sign of the blowtorch with any SW'lies returning PM sourced air.

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In my opinion this GFS run is not looking very good, the low that will be exiting from Greenland is further north than the previous run, it reminds me of the awful charts from yersterday, the heights could be in trouble to rise north

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5 minutes ago, Jonan92 said:

In my opinion this GFS run is not looking very good, the low that will be exiting from Greenland is further north than the previous run, it reminds me of the awful charts from yersterday, the heights could be in trouble to rise north

It’s only out to T+84 - hold your horses!!!!

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5 minutes ago, Jonan92 said:

In my opinion this GFS run is not looking very good, the low that will be exiting from Greenland is further north than the previous run, it reminds me of the awful charts from yersterday, the heights could be in trouble to rise north

It's fine, just a difference in timing. :)

Look for how straight the ridge is, the more it points to 12 o'clock or even 11 and the further North it gets the better.

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gfsnh-0-96.png?6  gfsnh-0-90.png?12

I'm not so sure; LP has cleared more cleanly (no shallow feature trailing behind) and the LPs over Canada are closer together which means a better chance of them merging further west in 2-3 days time, which would help going forward. There is also marginally better alignment of the flow in the western flank of the ridge but that's very slight indeed. Still - even small deviations have impacts that grow a lot over time... 

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Just now, Mucka said:

It's fine, just a difference in timing. :)

Look for how straight the ridge is, the more it points to 12 o'clock or even 11 and the further North it gets the better.

I was just goingo to mentiont that. The low takes longer to clear but the american low is better tilted this run

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1 minute ago, Mucka said:

It's fine, just a difference in timing. :)

Look for how straight the ridge is, the more it points to 12 o'clock or even 11 and the further North it gets the better.

Just seen the +96 which makes the difference clearer than the +90 I was posting about :rolleyes::D.

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It’s better upstream - how that maninfests itself with the ridge depends on other things too so we just have to wait for the run to emerge !!

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Heights rising further north in this run

gfsnh-0-108_oqk3.png

 

The low to the east of Greenland is further away, so the heights have a clearer path

Edited by Jonan92

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gfsnh-0-114.png?6 gfsnh-0-108.png?12

Looking very good so far with better alignment of the flow on both sides of the ridge! This allows for a 'fatter' wedge of higher heights to link tot he Arctic High, much as per the UKMO 12z of yesterday. It also directs cold air from by Svalbard more directly toward the UK...

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Wow didnt expect that from the 12z!!!the high goes deep into the arctic on this run!!what a beauty!!should hopefully pull in colder upperrs aswell!!

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The strength of the block is easily seen in the jet profile

 

06z

gfsnh-5-132_bhc9.png

12z

gfsnh-5-126_agr5.png

 

In this run the flow gets interrupted

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gfsnh-0-132.png?12

It's a very good sign if I'm racing Steve Murr to deliver the news :D

This looks fantastic. Now let's see what tricks GFS has up its sleeves to try and make a hash of things :p

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Just waiting for someone to say the ukmo aint as good lol!!aint seen the 12z run yet but it nearly always happens!!

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Just now, Mucka said:

And of course UKMO plays party pooper

UN120-21.GIF?23-17

That looks ok   Ill wait for the 144  to make to many judgements.

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2 minutes ago, weirpig said:

That looks ok   Ill wait for the 144  to make to many judgements.

144 chart looks good to me.  Stiff north-easterly - not desperately cold but this is a decent chart.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ukm&var=1&run=12&time=144&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

Edited by mulzy

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Ukmo isnt quite as good at 144 - maybe 7/10 but no means bad though---

hoping to see the GFS bring that deep cold south -

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