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phil nw.

Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

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9 hours ago, festivalking said:

Ha the GFS falling in line? Now watch the ECM back track. Thats how these things work surly?:rofl::diablo:

Oh dear sadly it looks it came true. I'll get my coat :oops:

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With such variance in the output after the initial colder shot from the NW, experience suggested that we will end up with a halfway house solution with HP slap bang over the top of us ( a la 0z ECM) giving us dry and cold conditions which would be a great start to winter. Still lots to be resolved in the coming days though...

Edited by Nimbusman

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Lovely EC this morning bringing a cold dry end to Nov / start to Dec.seasonal weather indeed.

:cold:

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The ECM ensemble mean even at day 10 still is pretty good though, not much different from last night's 

 

EDH101-240.GIF

The ECM operational is a warm outlier, the ensemble is much better 

 

eps_pluim_tt_06240.png

Edited by ArHu3

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The extended eps mean/anomoly pretty solid with Atlantic ridge and sceuro trough. now I wonder where they might actually position themselves .............

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Nothing to moan about this morning!

Great ECM mean which I think looks better than last nights :)

graphe_ens3.php?mode=0&x=&y=&run=0&ville

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The GFS going back to amplified northerly feed by middle of next week after this weekend.  Whats that now, 3 days of models trending to a cold and wintry solution for the next 7 - 10 days. And a dumping of snow on the mountains in Scotland! Game on!

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UKMO extended settled and cold for most with a few showers affecting the coasts

ukm2.2017113000_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.70a0f09bfa3f6a20763966393d7ac29a.png

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its a start from next weekend..... and its very different to what we saw last years

64.gif

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well by CFS there is cold coming for start December......

854.png

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So it's looking pretty likely that the high will gradually sink over the UK after a weeks time, the ECM/UKM has moved more towards the GFS and the GFS has also moved towards the ECm/UKM.

If the high eventually sets up over the UK we could end up with some lovely clear frosty weather, very seasonal for the start of December.

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1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

So it's looking pretty likely that the high will gradually sink over the UK after a weeks time, the ECM/UKM has moved more towards the GFS and the GFS has also moved towards the ECm/UKM.

If the high eventually sets up over the UK we could end up with some lovely clear frosty weather, very seasonal for the start of December.

Yes its a brilliant time of year for a cold high- sun will be setting really early so plenty of time for severe frosts to develop...:)

6z coming out now..hopefully another cold run ..

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Quite a difference at 120 on the 6z run  the low  in the lobe to the southwestern tip of greenland is a little less powerful.  will it make any difference?.  I dont know.

gfsnh-0-120.png

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8 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Quite a difference at 120 on the 6z run  the low  in the lobe to the southwestern tip of greenland is a little less powerful.  will it make any difference?.  I dont know.

gfsnh-0-120.png

IMO its the shortwave over Svalbard that just sits there that ruins this run, it prevents a really stonking ridge via the Atlantic / Arctic combination otherwise it could have been an absolute stonker.

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8 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Quite a difference at 120 on the 6z run  the low  in the lobe to the southwestern tip of greenland is a little less powerful.  will it make any difference?.  I dont know.

gfsnh-0-120.png

Mlb I would imagine. As you would expect with the forecast coming into better time frame the more outlandish height rises being moderated

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23 hours ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

I think we will end up with a halfway house between the euros and the GFS. The ECM is prone to over amplifying, think we will see a mid atlantic ridge for a few days before it is collapsed from the top.

To be honest, we were never looking at serious cold anyway, -4c 850s and cold rain is as useless as 15c and sun! It is still a little too early in the season.

 

 

Looks like I was not a million miles away with this statement judging by the look of the ECM.

Whenever there is significant disagreement between the models, we usually always end up with a blended solution.

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46 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

So it's looking pretty likely that the high will gradually sink over the UK after a weeks time, the ECM/UKM has moved more towards the GFS and the GFS has also moved towards the ECm/UKM.

If the high eventually sets up over the UK we could end up with some lovely clear frosty weather, very seasonal for the start of December.

That all sounds lovely, cold and frosty sunny days. The only worry for me is that the high always eventually sinks down and settles up over Europe leaving us in the milder weather .... hopefully not this time though.  

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4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

IMO its the shortwave over Svalbard that just sits there that ruins this run, it prevents a really stonking ridge via the Atlantic / Arctic combination otherwise it could have been an absolute stonker.

Yes.  However 180  and heights to some extent still rising   still a decent run

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7 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Yes.  However 180  and heights to some extent still rising   still a decent run

Petty at 180hrs the high hasnt moved that bit further nne.pressure dropping to the south and an easterly would have been on the cards!!!!just to note the 6z is a huge upgrade to the oz on the nhp

Edited by swfc

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3 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Yes.  However 180  and heights to some extent still rising   still a decent run

Theres some -8 behind that shortwave but its going to miss us to the East, and anyway would be moderated to -6c even if it did make it, we need a second bout of WAA up the side of Greenland to save this run in FI but everything poorly tilted and poorly aligned.

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Could be a boom of a run post 228 hours!! Hopefully

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Well if the 6z is right up to 228hrs (which is wont be)   cool days and cold nights  right up till next Sunday.   maybe not the most exciting of runs  but seasonal it will be.

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