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phil nw.

Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

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An increasingly arctic meridional look to the Ecm 12z ensemble mean tonight..love it!;):drinks::cold-emoji:holy ice cubes indeed:cold:

ECMAVGEU12_72_1.png

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ECMAVGEU12_240_1.png

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Edited by Frosty.
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Latest from the NAO/AO

the AO is tanking again whereas it was showing to go neutral on the last run,the NAO was showing to go neutral positive on the last run but stays neg just(going on majority)

ao.sprd2.thumb.gif.bb5aae36a1d60b9bb7ce63bbc1850371.gifnao.sprd2.thumb.gif.93c7703dc3be1e95f0dd181db9f32d9a.gif

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Looked through individual EC ensemble members for D10 - don't even know where to begin. They aren't just split - they are totally scattered. There is support for the ECM op, but there's also plenty of support for the GFS op, too.

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The big question is will the updated  METO 120 Fax resemble this in any way??

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

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some interesting developments on the ECM happening in my location and out into the eastern pacific that could be good news for the UK if you like cold that is?

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1 hour ago, koeleboe said:

Hi everyone

I'm new here, but i've been following this forum for almost 2 years ;)

Question : I was wondering where I can find the EC clusters, as posted on the previous pages :)

Btw lovely EC run hehe

start at http://brunnur.vedur.is/kort/ec-ens/2017/11/ - select your day, select 00Z or 12Z, then scroll right to the bottom of the list to the ones that say "scenarios" in the middle, choose the timeframe you want and you're there :)

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21 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Looked through individual EC ensemble members for D10 - don't even know where to begin. They aren't just split - they are totally scattered. There is support for the ECM op, but there's also plenty of support for the GFS op, too.

The ensemble mean still shows pretty strong blocking in both the pacific and Atlantic though 

EDH101-240.GIF

 

Edited by ArHu3
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Took a quick look at NOAA and the GEFS and EPS anomalies this evening as they are not in bad agreement given the circumstances

Upstream we have the Siberian vortex with an east Pacific ridge and vortex lobe northern Canada with trough south east over NE North America  Thus still energy swinging east out of the seaboard south of the trough. Downstream we have a very amplified pattern with ridges in the Atlantic into Iceland and eastern Europe into the Arctic with a high cell in the region of Franz Joseph Land. In between a trough running south to the east of the UK into southern Europe The EPS is slightly more amplified than the other two with sharper ridging into Iceland

Thus an upper flow between NW/N over the UK portending a cold airstream and unsettled weather but this is very dependent on the precise orientation and amplification of the ridge because if it subsides somewhat and moves a tad east then although temps would still be below average more settled conditions may portend. Something the det runs will continue to grapple with.

ecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.thumb.png.06ed082e272afada203e575404c1f423.pnggefs_z500a_5d_nh_41.thumb.png.246cb5bb5664fdd8b150f18b8eb1619a.png610day_03.thumb.gif.b675c943a755fbdce8ffcb6fb95dd41c.gif

The transition to the later period is tricky. Upstream not a lot of change but downstream a marked loss of amplification and how this is handled is the key. NOAA and the EPS (can't post the 10-15 chart) are very similar with the declined high pressure ridging a tad NE just to the west of the UK which would be in the much slacker circulation of the ridge with a slack westerly flow to the north over Iceland Thus still below average temps but pretty settled. The GEFS tending much flatter across the Atlantic.

814day_03.thumb.gif.c9162e4d3ff8b6673f6adcdc42f438f8.gifgefs_z500a_5d_nh_61.thumb.png.5a02b8bb25924a5e33274a1996ce08a4.png

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20 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

The big question is will the updated  METO 120 Fax resemble this in any way??

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

Yes, there’ll be no other way forward.  

 

BFTP

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20 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

some interesting developments on the ECM happening in my location and out into the eastern pacific that could be good news for the UK if you like cold that is?

More please, what you seeing?

 

BFTP

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Just now, ArHu3 said:

The ensemble mean still shows pretty strong blocking in both the pacific and Atlantic though 

ok here's a taster - I think this is a fair selection (warning: some of these may put you off your dinner)

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2017112212_240_1642_149_m0.thumb.png.caedb7192848210c1fbf3ef30573510c.pngus_model-en-087-0_modez_2017112212_240_1642_149_m4.thumb.png.2c36e0778234c61325e5b320a9bc8e40.pngus_model-en-087-0_modez_2017112212_240_1642_149_m6.thumb.png.8b7bf9c1e3e3e54de4368ff2cfe1cd8d.pngus_model-en-087-0_modez_2017112212_240_1642_149_m7.thumb.png.29da6368bbcbc2cb4ce193fe36fe1164.pngus_model-en-087-0_modez_2017112212_240_1642_149_m8.thumb.png.305b7d3b9cd779c3c97937581c02675b.pngus_model-en-087-0_modez_2017112212_240_1642_149_m9.thumb.png.7ffffd382cbbdfde4022b50d6ed50249.png 

 

 

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The setup atm is far better than at any time last year. How often did we see eye candy charts at just past the reliable only to seem them disappear a day later. At least we have some consistency in the near term to focus on.

 

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10 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

The ensemble mean still shows pretty strong blocking in both the pacific and Atlantic though 

EDH101-240.GIF

 

 

5 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ok here's a taster - I think this is a fair selection (warning: some of these may put you off your dinner)

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2017112212_240_1642_149_m0.thumb.png.caedb7192848210c1fbf3ef30573510c.pngus_model-en-087-0_modez_2017112212_240_1642_149_m4.thumb.png.2c36e0778234c61325e5b320a9bc8e40.pngus_model-en-087-0_modez_2017112212_240_1642_149_m6.thumb.png.8b7bf9c1e3e3e54de4368ff2cfe1cd8d.pngus_model-en-087-0_modez_2017112212_240_1642_149_m7.thumb.png.29da6368bbcbc2cb4ce193fe36fe1164.pngus_model-en-087-0_modez_2017112212_240_1642_149_m8.thumb.png.305b7d3b9cd779c3c97937581c02675b.pngus_model-en-087-0_modez_2017112212_240_1642_149_m9.thumb.png.7ffffd382cbbdfde4022b50d6ed50249.png 

 

 

 

This is exactly why the ensemble means are useless and I don't put much credence into them. 

The mean would have you believe there's solid support within the ensembles at day 10 for a continuation of blocked and cold, the individual members above tell a completely different story.

(Day 10 is miles away and until we get the shortwave sorted for this weekend, isn't really worth worrying about)

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3 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

 

 

This is exactly why the ensemble means are useless and I don't put much credence into them. 

The mean would have you believe there's solid support within the ensembles at day 10 for a continuation of blocked and cold, the individual members above tell a completely different story.

(Day 10 is miles away and until we get the shortwave sorted for this weekend, isn't really worth worrying about)

Yes - too far away - it was worth posting just to keep feet on the ground. Lots to happen before D10!!

I know we had a big debate about this the other night so weary of opening old wounds, but there is one occasion when the mean charts definitely are useful - when they show a monster high or low anomaly. For example, almost every time I've seen a mean high of 1030mb or above, it has verified close to that spot, sometimes as far out as D12.

Edited by Man With Beard
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1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

 

 

This is exactly why the ensemble means are useless and I don't put much credence into them. 

The mean would have you believe there's solid support within the ensembles at day 10 for a continuation of blocked and cold, the individual members above tell a completely different story.

(Day 10 is miles away and until we get the shortwave sorted for this weekend, isn't really worth worrying about)

And the clusters may not be so representative either if the spread is so large. 

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Just now, bluearmy said:

And the clusters may not be so representative either if the spread is so large. 

They might not give you an idea going forward but they serve well to show the different solutions within the EPS suite 

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Just now, bluearmy said:

And the clusters may not be so representative either if the spread is so large. 

I agree with you, both have their merit, I don't see how people can say the mean is useless, it can give you an indication of whether your in with a shout of cold (or whatever other setup you prefer for that matter) or not, I think people are confusing median and mean some of the time, the median would be useless because you could have a 49 member cluster showing a 995mb pressure over Iceland and 1 member showing 1070mb which would give high pressure!!!!,   The mean is however usefull. Obviously the best way is to view each member individually but not everyone has time (or propensity) to do that.

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GFS getting kinky?

gfs-0-78.png?18

EDIT

Doesn't develop though, carry on:closedeyes:

gfs-0-84.png?18

Edited by Mucka

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White Saturday for all the north west, hills Wales, NI, Scotland obviously, also Stockport and on a line ESE, Staffordshire missing out, as winds too westerly

hgt500-1000.png

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Gfs 18z edging towards euros here!!shortwave being released more freely at 96 hours!!backtrack begins....i think!!

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8 minutes ago, Mucka said:

GFS getting kinky?

gfs-0-78.png?18

EDIT

Doesn't develop though, carry on:closedeyes:

gfs-0-84.png?18

Wait:D

the 18z and the 12z

gfs-0-102.png?18gfs-0-108.png?12

height going up now.

Edited by Allseasons-si

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