Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

[pad199207]

Not comfortable until UKMO comes onboard. 

It was right against the GFS and ECM with the phantom easterly in 2012.

Im actually sick to the stomach with the throught of the morning runs! 

[Midlands Ice Age]

31 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Haha right at the end of the run...that's your 1962 evolution...Greenland to Scandi link up

Difficult to see how this 18z run could be bettered.

That's the jackpot..

A one in a hundred year job

Could it happen?

MIA

[blizzard81]

Looks like the good old UK models have taken the wind out of our sails tonight. Back down to earth with a bump bofore the Monday morning blues maybe? 

[Boro Snow]

Ok that has to be a concern if the fax chart is going with there model when they also have other things and models to go with 

[booferking]

Will be fun here in the Morning if the brat don't play ball.

[snowice]

Just now, blizzard81 said:

Looks like the good old UK models have taken the wind out of our sails tonight. Back down to earth with a bump bofore the Monday morning blues maybe? 

Only 4 hours and 33minutes to find out 

[blizzard81]

Just now, Boro Snow said:

Ok that has to be a concern if the fax chart is going with there model when they also have other things and models to go with 

I very much agree because the gfs 18z mean is a massive backtrack from the 12z run. 

[Mucka]

GFS short ensembles, chilly, but hopefully just an aperitif to the main course.

[snowblizzard]

I certainly wouldn't bet against UKMO being correct!

[Allseasons-Si]

That east russian/scandy high is playing a big part in all this too,not just the Atlantic high,forcing these lows/troughs to be forced south,also the west N American high has it's part too amplifying the pattern east of N America>three wave attack.

Mean at 240

 

Edited November 26, 2017 by Allseasons-si

[Ice Day]

Just now, Boro Snow said:

Ok that has to be a concern if the fax chart is going with there model when they also have other things and models to go with 

I really wouldn't worry too much.  The fax charts are almost always just a reflection of the previous run, unless there's an imminent significant weather event on our doorstep when the human factor with step in and amend accordingly.  

[weirpig]

To be honest i don't remember the fax charts following any other model other than the ukmo  in my opinion for what it's worth  it would be one of the biggest shocks  since Gareth gates losing pop idol if the ecm is that wrong at that range. Backed up by the other models  I can only see it going one way . Interesting non the less 

[karlos1983]

Chill everyone, they (UKMO) clearly don’t work sundays, they will edit it tomorrow, right after they’ve restarted the server that churned our today’s garbage. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

FWIW I hardly ever look at the FAX charts. I've found them pretty useless post 72 hours given the vagaries with front placement etc. 

Also I very much doubt they're going to be modified too heavily on a Sunday night. 

[festivalking]

One of those great moments when all eyes are on a single model a single run a single frame is coming. Well in 4 and half hours to be precise. Great stuff

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Chill everyone, they (UKMO) clearly don’t work sundays, they will edit it tomorrow, right after they’ve restarted the server that churned our today’s garbage. 

A certain squirrel, naming no names will be very happy with that fax chart

[tight isobar]

Worthy of view: 18z gfs.

Just to highlight for point of run...

True arctic feed..

Flow-as modeled straight from the pole..

And no messing bringing that established cold with it.

Jet-profile..

Highlighted atlantic/russian waa...

Swerving the jet to an'almost perfect profile for uk cold.

 

850'..again thats a serious/main tained' blast of polar air...and with evolution complete would be a v-stubborn locked in cold situ...

We-are coming on leaps and bounds now....and its getting real!!!

jet-profile

850hpa

wind/slot

Edited November 26, 2017 by tight isobar

[weirpig]

Full ensembles. Control mild outlier opp on the cold side but has support 

[lorenzo]

https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/Current/arctic/anim_EPV_0500.html

No complaints.. vortexx reshuffle at 50 hPa and credence to the current modelling.

NASA charts - who am I to argue..

[ScottishSnowStorm]

The GFS is the one model from them all being so aggressive with building the western russia block compared to the ECM and other semi respected models 

Now hopefully the GFS won't be the front runner with this cos as we see towards the end of its run theres a chance these hieghts could link up with the atlantic hieghts and would then cut us off from all the deep cold and while producing a decent easterly could well leave us a much longer route to tapping into any deep cold uppers 

[Zakos]

 

 

Excellent mean anomalies today from the GFS ECM and GFS at just 168 hours away

Given the persistence of low heights over europe and the weakness of the jet stream at present, I personally think we are odds on for cold weather.

The 18z is very reminiscent of December 2010!

Are we potentially looking at a prolonged and memorable spell of cold weather? the block is looking very formidable IMO,  exciting prospects.

 

Edited November 27, 2017 by Zakos

[Daniel*]

I’m concerned by the UKMet fax charts, if you aren’t then you should be unless you’re knocker.. No way to dress it up with the human input too almost a copy of UKMO. Surely not?

[ScottishSnowStorm]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

I’m concerned by the UKMet fax charts, if you aren’t then you should be unless you’re knocker.. No way to dress it up with the human input too almost a copy of UKMO. Surely not?

Hasn't the UKMO always used there own model output to make up there fax charts?

[Daniel*]

Just now, ScottishSnowStorm said:

Hasn't the UKMO always used there own model output to make up there fax charts?

No many a time they’ve ditched their own model and used a blend of x, y and z. That is what troubles me. 

[lassie23]

I think the UKMO is the one to follow