Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

[Frosty.]

20 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

at 192,we have velociraptor in the NH

 

Makes a change from casper the friendly ghost looking northwest at T+96 yesterday evening

As for tonight's Ecm 12z, plenty of cold weather, some days colder than others next week with a risk of snow in places and frosty nights where skies clear..nothing mild showing, just a little less cold at times , next  monday for example but generally winds coming down from the N / NE...I will take this over the usual mild mush anytime ta very much!

 

[cyclonic happiness]

3 minutes ago, snowice said:

Very quite for such  good  ECM are members frozen

After the last 4 years, people are scared to get their hopes up, I know I am.

[Seasonal Trim]

1 minute ago, cyclonic happiness said:

After the last 4 years, people are scared to get their hopes up, I know I am.

This a million times! When was it we had the beast from the east come all the way down to 48/72 hours and then downgrade to nothing?

My heart couldn't take that again!

 

[swfc]

Going threw todays output it does look like a cool-cold snap is all but there now.nothing severe but bright ,dry and cold going into winter not to bad at all.lets hope going threw December things intensify and bring some quality  winter weather! !!

[Chesil View]

Just now, Nizzer said:

This a million times! When was it we had the beast from the east come all the way down to 48/72 hours and then downgrade to nothing?

My heart couldn't take that again!

 

Yes we only have to go back 12 months to the fiasco when all 51 ecm ensemble members showed easterly or northeasterly outcomes for it all to go pearshaped on the very next run. The ECM may be the worlds best verifying model but when it gets cold and snowy outlook wrong it usually does so in a spectacular way. The member of this forum called That ECM uses that name for that very reason. 

Edited November 24, 2017 by Broadmayne blizzard

[Summer Sun]

UKMO extended dry and settled for many with winds still coming in from the NE the east coast will still be prone to cloud/showers

[MR EXTREMES]

Well the gem would be incredible if it came of.

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

Well the gem would be incredible if it came of.

Has the gem ever come off though?..first time for everything I suppose☺??

[Bruegelian]

Is it too late or not for UKMO to side with GFS/ECM, in member's opinions? 

Thanks

 

[nick sussex]

The ECM run is a little disappointing towards the end and  we’re back to discussing those shortwaves because the wheels come off when one of these shown to the sw of Greenland at T168hrs hrs doesn’t disrupt sending sufficient energy se to support the block. Indeed it could have been worse had it properly phased with the upstream troughing.

That’s not to say the ECM is bad, it’s cold right to day ten but getting energy under the block would extend the cold and keep our options open.

I think the critical timeframe is now looking around T168hrs to T192 hrs, energy distribution at that point will be the decider.

You need energy disrupting off that shortwave allowing the ridge to get over the top of it. 

Edited November 24, 2017 by nick sussex

[Tracy Flick]

The JMA at 192h is GFS-ish.

[Daniel*]

34 minutes ago, Nizzer said:

This a million times! When was it we had the beast from the east come all the way down to 48/72 hours and then downgrade to nothing?

My heart couldn't take that again!

 

Always right to exercise caution. It's knocking on five years since that 'heartbreak', since then the models have received upgrades they've certainly improved, reducing such events but not eleiminating.

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM run is a little disappointing towards the end and  we’re back to discussing those shortwaves because the wheels come off when one of these shown to the sw of Greenland at T168hrs hrs doesn’t disrupt sending sufficient energy se to support the block. Indeed it could have been worse had it properly phased with the upstream troughing.

That’s not to say the ECM is bad, it’s cold right to day ten but getting energy under the block would extend the cold and keep our options open.

I think the critical timeframe is now looking around T168hrs to T192 hrs, energy distribution at that point will be the decider.

 

UKMO is chalk and cheese to gfs/ec tonight- the 168 Gavin just posted has the high centred to our south west - its hideous !

EC would be cold/very cold,pretty much all the way thru- i remember Mr Murr calling ukmo the 'slayer' a few years ago, thats always stuck in my mind, i'm sure its happened a few times and trumped the others.

[Dennis]

AO

[Frosty.]

For anyone who hasn't seen the Gem 12z run, here it is in all its glory and it certainly ends much better than the Ecm in terms of prolonging the cold unsettled outlook considerably with reloading cold shots from the NE..looks great!

[feb1991blizzard]

ECM eps T240 mean is an upgrade, a stonking well defined Atlantic ridge with another undercut about to happen on a decent sized cluster I would wager.

[joggs]

I'll be honest here and after looking through a lot of charts from past winters(I know different parameters were playing ball)but I can honestly see nothing else but an eventual undercut.

Just the way it's setting up is reminiscent of the 70s,80s.

And like teits(he around yet?),gut instinct.

Just got that feeling about it,especially with waa pumped into the arctic and a active hurricane season.

[booferking]

Ecm mean is spot on best iv seen this year.

[nick sussex]

11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

UKMO is chalk and cheese to gfs/ec tonight- the 168 Gavin just posted has the high centred to our south west - its hideous !

EC would be cold/very cold,pretty much all the way thru- i remember Mr Murr calling ukmo the 'slayer' a few years ago, thats always stuck in my mind, i'm sure its happened a few times and trumped the others.

It’s not that bad , look at the change of isobars between T144hrs and T168hrs , the lobe of high pressure to the west of the ridge near the UK has been pushed north ahead of the amplified wave working east out of the ne Canada . It’s difficult with the restricted view but it could have been worse.

Edited November 24, 2017 by nick sussex

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

ECM eps T240 mean is an upgrade, a stonking well defined Atlantic ridge with another undercut about to happen on a decent sized cluster I would wager.

Its an absolute cracker for a day 10 mean is that- i looked at the 144 mean and thought that looks great- think the EC ens are going to be very nice ..

[Dennis]

snow from the west this evening/night

[A.J]

1 hour ago, shaky said:

What a beauty at 96 hours heights going up and this is following the gfs not the ukmo at the moment!!

even though the 12z outputs are very encouraging for cold and dare I say it, potentially snowy weather, I still have nagging doubts as the Shaky Exclamation Counter(TM)  is only registering 2/10 tonight.....Until it comes on board and reaches at least 7, I sadly remain unconvinced

  #weneed10outof10!!!!!!!!!!

Edited November 24, 2017 by ajpoolshark

[joggs]

Imagine if we would have had model output/netweather in the 70s,80s.

I wonder if we'd of been nervous,anxious until we had full agreement and within 48hrs?.Lol

Edited November 24, 2017 by joggs

[Geordiesnow]

Better set up on the ECM which allows slightly colder air starting to fill in from the North, still feeding on the scraps in terms of cold air and its actually quite extraordinary just how 'warm' our side of the Northern hemisphere is looking, barely any meaningful PV at all, sadly thats climate change for you.

The question will be, will the high eventually topple in or will the Northerly feed continue but whichever output we look at, there is no real sign of any meaninful Atlantic weather coming in as of yet. .

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, joggs said:

Imagine if we would have had model output/netweather in the 70s,80s.

I wonder if we'd of been nervous,anxious until we had full agreement and within 48hrs?.Lol

Absolutely, as the models were nowhere near as good then, a T24 chart in the 80s had about the accuracy of a D4 chart today (apparently), I used to watch the countryfile forecast religiously + the Wednesday 5 dayer for the coming weekend and I lost count of the amount of times the forecaster expressed low confidence (particularly in undercutter scenarios), Feb 91 being an exception, Ian Mccaskill expressed a high degree of confidence of a severe spell of cold and it counted in like clockwork, probably because the undercut was already about to happen so the Easterly was guaranteed so it was obvious the cold uppers would reach us.