Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

[Paul_1978]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

This is exactly what we wanted to see, there’s still time to improve on this as well!! 

Indeed. The Atlantic is clearly not making inroads at T+111 when compared to the 06z. HP over the UK holding firmer. 

[booferking]

Just 800 miles difference in the placement of that low at 96hr

[festivalking]

2 minutes ago, booferking said:

Just 800 miles difference in the placement of that low at 96hr

Well well has the GFS gone off on one or will UKMO back it up? Anyway at  T126 it looks like the high is starting to sink so this could be a mild run again.....

Edited November 14, 2017 by festivalking

[karlos1983]

UKMO says game on

 

Edited November 14, 2017 by karlos1983

[booferking]

2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Looks pretty good dam good to me.. What a split we have going on there.

Edited November 14, 2017 by booferking

[mulzy]

UKMO day 5 looks ok-ish.  We just need that shortwave to eject quickly SE.  Not sure how the other low in the Atlantic will behave but it looks to be a NW-SE axis.

 

Edited November 14, 2017 by mulzy

[Met4Cast]

Amazing really.

We can have a 1060mb high over Greenland and somehow the UK still gets Southerlies. 

 

[tight isobar]

Crucial differences already and with the semi-reliable.

Shortwave split..

And its this that needs watching for amplification purposes!!!

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

Amazing really.

We can have a 1060mb high over Greenland and somehow the UK still gets Southerlies. 

 

The trend is our friend, and with UKMO and the GFS improving this afternoon, I’m in high spirits. Now watch the ECM go the other way lol 

[Man With Beard]

4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

UKMO says game on

 

Was just about to post this too. How on earth can we not get something cold from that? Still, UKMO has been all over the place on this set-up tbh.

[swfc]

12z was actually on the ropes at 114 hrs .the heights to the south and Atlantic low blow everything up from the sw

[karlos1983]

3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Was just about to post this too. How on earth can we not get something cold from that? Still, UKMO has been all over the place on this set-up tbh.

Really intrigued to see +168 UKMO chart. When does it come out on that site?

[Tracy Flick]

Not at all shabby around Baffin Bay.  The high's going west-ish.

 

Edited November 14, 2017 by Punxsutawney Phil

[tight isobar]

The pivotal point via all ops!

Can we/will we get the backing waa into greenland in front of the western seaboard system?..

And keep morphing shortwaves tracking south east...

The ultimate question via output going forward!

Edited November 14, 2017 by tight isobar

[johnholmes]

Ref this

the 'high' over Greenland.

It is not a 'real' high in that the air is so cold over Greenland that in winter apparent high surface pressures often occur. Only IF the 500mb temperature is showing yellow or orange can you believe there is a genuine high there.

Thus the UK on this run is not being affected by this feature.

Badly explained but pm me and I'll try and do better!

 

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

The pivotal point via all ops!

Can we/will we get the backing waa into greenland in front of the western seaboard system?..

And keep morphing shortwaves trackins south east...

The ultimate question via output going forward!

 

Just now, johnholmes said:

Ref this

the 'high' over Greenland.

It is not a 'real' high in that the air is so cold over Greenland that in winter apparent high surface pressures often occur. Only IF the 500mb temperature is showing yellow or orange can you believe there is a genuine high there.

Thus the UK on this run is not being affected by this feature.

Badly explained but pm me and I'll try and do better!

 

Thats exactly why we need that back up off hot on the tail Atlantic waa to be syphoned in between systems.

[Man With Beard]

We could get somewhere from GFS 12Z too. It's the one model that tends to push a little too much from the Azores. If the Euro heights end up slightly flatter, the two troughs to the west may have enough separation to not fuse between T168 and T216 and eventually the pattern will topple over us. All utterly hypothetical still though.

[Man With Beard]

3 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Ref this

the 'high' over Greenland.

It is not a 'real' high in that the air is so cold over Greenland that in winter apparent high surface pressures often occur. Only IF the 500mb temperature is showing yellow or orange can you believe there is a genuine high there.

Thus the UK on this run is not being affected by this feature.

Badly explained but pm me and I'll try and do better!

 

surely it also is to do with 500mb heights relative to its surroundings? 500mb temperatures much higher in a bubble over Greenland compared to its surroundings?

[EML Network]

17 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Amazing really.

We can have a 1060mb high over Greenland and somehow the UK still gets Southerlies. 

 

I think we might as well give up Dan.

Ive never seen the models strugglw so much...i have a race in Brighton on Sunday morning at 9am and for the past 4 days have been looking at the charts with that one timeframe in mind and every single run and day its flipping wildly...its only 5 days away now and im still none the wiser as to what conditions ill be running in.

 

If the NH has a split as.modelled above and the UK gets mild southerlys then I really will give up on ever seeing a cold winter in the UK alltogether and wont bother with any of the things we all look towards as pointing towards a cold outbreak because none of them.will have ended up makin the slightest bit of difference

[tight isobar]

13 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

The pivotal point via all ops!

Can we/will we get the backing waa into greenland in front of the western seaboard system?..

And keep morphing shortwaves tracking south east...

The ultimate question via output going forward!

Not atm..12z gfs...

But as-again lots to be resolved in this spectrum!

Edited November 14, 2017 by tight isobar

[karlos1983]

GEM having a good go... 

Been a surprising afternoon, guess Fl is around +72 mark at the moment, or at least that's the vital point/crossroads for if we see mild/cold thereafter

[swfc]

Jet heading towards the canairies on the 12Z pre 240 hours! !!Unfortunately were in a south westerly lol.wow

[Jonan92]

It's amazing to see such a split with the cold in "our" side, something difficult to see. Unlucky to have southern winds, if only it moved to the west...

[karlos1983]

It’s not difficult to see the possible route to Scandi height rises..... 

[johnholmes]

19 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

surely it also is to do with 500mb heights relative to its surroundings? 500mb temperatures much higher in a bubble over Greenland compared to its surroundings?

I think you will find the point I was trying to make about a 'surface' high is correct. Remember also that Greenland, most of it, is not at sea level anyway, it being covered by a thick layer of ice.