Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

[Frosty.]

I think its been another interesting day on the models, nothing is ruled in, nothing is ruled out, I see lots of cold potential and building blocks..etc etc..roll on the 18z!?

[snowray]

36 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I think its been another interesting day on the models, nothing is ruled in, nothing is ruled out, I see lots of cold potential and building blocks..etc etc..roll on the 18z!?

Yes lots of potential still there, in fact what are the odds that the 18z will do a complete U turn this evening and turns out a stela run for coldies?

[knocker]

No great surprise but the anomalies tonight are a tad complex and not in complete agreement so one suspects it is still going to take the det. outputs a couple of days to sort the details.

Upstream we still have the proverbial N. Pacific ridge and high cell Franz Joseph area and the twin vortex lobes Russia and now Alaska. The Alaskan lobe has associated troughs down the eastern Pacific and the eastern seaboard of N. America with high pressure ridging in the western US so not a zonal flow across the States by any means.

But as the fairly strong upper flow leaves the eastern seaboard south of the trough it gets a bit tricky because downstream, apart from the Scandinavian trough the high pressure to the SW of the UK has ridged NW into southern Greenland where the more positive anomalies reside. Consequently some of the upstream energy swings around north Greenland before running east to the Scandinavian trough whilst the bulk runs east and then around the weaker ridge to the west of the UK and thus crossing the latter from the north west.

So unless that ridge fronts up more it looks as if energy will get through from a couple of directions so probably quite unsettled with the possibility of some quite wintry weather if all the cards fell right and some colder air was dragged south to enter the mix. Anyway as mentioned plenty for the det, runs to get to grips with.

The general idea in the 10-15 range would appear to be a more zonal Atlantic but there is so much huffing and puffing going on I think this period best left for the moment.

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

Ecm mean at Day 10!

The EC ensembles are not dire. More like a thriller which has you on the edge of your seat. Looking through the members at D8, getting those lows under the Atlantic is like walking along a cliff edge. A lot of members make it and cold pours round the back to the UK. Almost as many chicken out and don't make the jump, allowing heights to rise towards the UK and a toppler High. And a few just die (I'm not quite sure how but basically 20% ish have a Euro high and SWlies). 

The mean has simply been flattened out by the variances.

Oh, and the member I felt closest to the UKMO at D6/D7 made the jump and turned into a stonker with maxes in low single figures for most by the end of next week

[MR EXTREMES]

5 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Until that small low in the Atlantic does something other than just move West to East, we are going to struggle to get a decent run.

I actually agree with you and ukmo pretty much the same rest of Europe cold were just to far west.

Actually seeing the ECM brought a tear to my eye for legritter the ECM is for you ?

[Snowy L]

That low in the Atlantic is slightly further south at t126 compared to the 12z, but still not enough to make it I think. The low behind it is much further south though.

[SMU]

Better 18z seperating the energy & high pressure nudging up in the gap

What a beast of high pressure across the pole - 1065MB over GH..

[bluearmy]

Fwiw, the ec46 isn't going to promote much chatter in weeks 3 and 4. Not seen 5 and 6 yet. 

[swfc]

18z a tad flat and angle not running nw-se!!still good block to the north but may blow up

Sorry clicked on ens fgs!!!!

Edited November 13, 2017 by swfc

[tight isobar]

much better and in RTF..

Everthing placing much better and furter south..(shortwaves)....

Theres going to be some stonking greeny heights...

And the cross polar flow also remaning steadfast!!

18z...

Edited November 13, 2017 by tight isobar

[Snowy L]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Better 18z seperating the energy & high pressure nudging up in the gap

What a beast of high pressure across the pole - 1065MB over GH..

Yep much better WAA into Bafin Bay as a result of that low pressure being further south, allowing the high to tap into warmer air. Im hoping this also acts as a barrier to the Greenland High to prevent it from linking to Canada.

Edited November 13, 2017 by Snowy L

[tight isobar]

Gfs stuck 156...

Meteociel!!??

Edited November 13, 2017 by tight isobar

[booferking]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

Gfs stuck 156...

Meteociel!!??

Yea but working on theweatheroutlook and wetterzentrale.

[snowray]

3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Gfs stuck 156...

Meteociel!!??

Yes its stuck..Just as things were starting to look interesting.

Edited November 13, 2017 by snowray

[nick sussex]

Think of that shortwave running into the UK from T120hrs as the Millenium Falcon trying to escape the Death Star with secret plans to deliver some cold to the UK!

The Death Star tractor beam is that trail of energy to the Millenium Falcon. Once the MF can escape and detach itself it can deliver the plan.

That nose of high pressure just mentioned by SM is the tractor beam about to be disengaged. We need the shortwave to escape the tractor beam as early as possible run into the UK and then allow ridging to the north to exert pressure sw wards.

 

[ICE COLD]

GFS 18z 192hrs . 

[karlos1983]

Mercifully the gfs 18z is stuck on meteociel at +156... night then 

Edited November 13, 2017 by karlos1983

[Snowy L]

If that second Atlantic low comes in at a better angle then the fun begins. Big problem is high pressure reluctant to move away from Spain/France so the angle the low hits us at is always a bad one at the moment.

[Ice Day]

Well what an absolute dogs dinner of a chart at 186. Really strange looking NH profile, where we go from here......?

Edited November 13, 2017 by Ice Day

[Jonan92]

If only the atlantic low were in the mediterranean instead...

[Radiating Dendrite]

The problem seems to be high pressure over central Europe and the Mediterranean. We seem to have a permanent high there every Autumn / Winter! We need to see some troughing over this area to pull in any colder air. 

[blizzard81]

I really feel that the models are struggling here. The ecm ensembles for debilt are very scattered. This won't be resolved for another 48 hours at least.

[nick sussex]

OMG why GFS!

Here a parcel of low heights run sw from near Iceland which the helps to energize the low to the sw. I think the issue continues to be the core of heights being too far west, the eastern end of the block is like swimming with sharks.

This run continues to ferment my absolute disgust for west based negative NAOs. Vile, useless waste of blocking. Wheres the brandy!

[Jonan92]

All the cold goes to the atlantic sea due to the stagnant low, a magnificient block wasted in this run

[swfc]

Winds from finland to the esb and the uk sits in a ssw wind!!!haha

Edited November 13, 2017 by swfc