Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

[phil nw.]

A number of recent posts are more about the Met office's outlooks.

Let's just have your own views on the models in here please folks.After all that's the purpose of this thread.

I am sure by now you all know there are 2 threads running for discussion on the Met office outlooks so please use them where appropriate.

Thanks all

[northwestsnow]

GFS 12z looks cold-

Sat night into sunday-

Edited November 12, 2017 by northwestsnow

[That ECM]

9 minutes ago, swfc said:

Such differences on run to run to run on gfs regarding low pressure exiting thw esb leave imo anything past 120 hrs up in tge air

 

 

 

I understand your point but I don't think many coldies are not going to want to discuss this run in detail!

[Singularity]

+180

06z:  12z:  

Deeper but still negatively tilted trough to west positions the ridge ahead of it more favourably for us on this run compared to the 06z. If the model behaves itself with the trough disruption, it could serve up a run of tasty charts going forward, although still mainly for the north.

[Ali1977]

Some people too quick to right off cold next week, 12z shaping up nicely with WAA linking nicely to a geeny high, now need some kind of easterly to hold back the usually spoilers!!

Edited November 12, 2017 by Ali1977

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Some people too quick to right off cold next week, 12z shaping up nicely 

Yes Ali- it certainly does, a subb zero sat night and a sub zero sunday night

[northwestsnow]

Wondering if 12z might produce a scandy high ?

Either way, the dry cold theme continues well into next week.

Beautiful charts for late November

[Zakos]

the jet stream is weaker on each successive GFS run, with a tendency to send more energy south.

Quite a notable upgrade, not looking good for the PV if the 12z is to be believed.

I believe the key may be the much stronger warm air advection into the canadian arctic on the 12z 

 

[northwestsnow]

Nice cold pool over Central Europe moving westwards

[nick sussex]

The UKMO still seems caught between two options.  The high near the UK at T144hrs hrs is now just a nuisance and you want that flattened and gone so that shortwave energy upstream can cut se and help to pull some colder air down from the north.

 

[ICE COLD]

BOOM

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

The UKMO still seems caught between two options.  The high near the UK at T144hrs hrs is now just a nuisance and you want that flattened and gone so that shortwave energy upstream can cut se and help to pull some colder air down from the north.

 

Looks similar to GFS to me Nick- if anything it looks better than GFS?

[Dancerwithwings]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Nice cold pool over Central Europe moving westwards

8- hpa's over the UK, first time I've seen this this season

[nick sussex]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Looks similar to GFS to me Nick- if anything it looks better than GFS?

No unfortunately it’s worse, the high centered to the sw is useless it won’t retrogress but act as a block to allow the shortwave to cut se wards sufficiently south from the upstream troughing . It might still manage it eventually if the upstream pattern helps to sharpen up the troughing but you want rid of the high .

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Dancerwithwings said:

8- hpa's over the UK, first time I've seen this this season

Lovely stuff- of course Gfs will blow up the Atlantic in FI - ignore/

Hopefully some snow showers to enjoy as the scandy high pulls in Easterlies - 

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, Dancerwithwings said:

8- hpa's over the UK, first time I've seen this this season

Yes, but the best bit is we are not actually at "that" season yet, these charts are just a bonus, an FI one though unfortunately but you never know!! 

[snowray]

2 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

8- hpa's over the UK, first time I've seen this this season

Lovely run, scandi high. Lots of snow showers on east facing coasts but mainly dry inland.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

No unfortunately it’s worse, the high centered to the sw is useless it won’t retrogress but act as a block to allow the shortwave to cut se wards sufficiently south from the upstream troughing . It might still manage it eventually if the upstream pattern helps to sharpen up the troughing but you want rid of the high .

Well im sure not going to disagree with a NW God !!!

Lets hope EC sides with gfs

[snowray]

All over by the 28th. Lets hope we can at least get a snowy breakdown later on in Dec.

[nick sussex]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Well im sure not going to disagree with a NW God !!!

Lets hope EC sides with gfs

Lol! You’re being far too flattering ! I’ll do one of my crayon jobs to clarify the issue with the UKMO.

[Snowy L]

32 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS 12z looks cold-

Sat night into sunday-

That GH is definitely stronger than yesterdays runs.

Regarding the mid-term, the 06z and now the 12z goes for building heights in Scandinavia after the Greenland heigh weakens. Not a bad way to go after the PV strengthens over Canada/greenland.

[Dancerwithwings]

YES to the above....Lovely GFS 12z charts for coldies all far in the depths of FI but I can see these type of charts showing it's cold hand over and over again as this week goes on.

[bluearmy]

Don't tell nick s but gem 12z produces a classic west based neg nao late on ! 

[Daniel*]

20 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Nice cold pool over Central Europe moving westwards

Stunning albeit purely eye candy so far out good set of runs today, after a not so good yesterday one big rollercoaster. That would herald a prolonged icy blast from the east, not seen since 12/13.

edit: seems the train goes off the rails but all the same good stuff. 

Edited November 12, 2017 by Daniel*

[nick sussex]

The issue with the UKMO is it has the high further north and we also see the trigger shortwave further northwest and unlikely to be ejected favourably.

The high is no good to us because the jet is running over the top of it and we need to rely on heights developing north of the trigger shortwave.

GFS

UKMO

Edited November 12, 2017 by nick sussex