Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

[Summer Sun]

 

[Stozzy]

Just now, Summer Sun said:

 

Beat me too it , was just about too post it . Atleast the metoffice and there super computers still predicting cold conditions 

[ICE COLD]

9 minutes ago, Stozzy said:

Beat me too it , was just about too post it . Atleast the metoffice and there super computers still predicting cold conditions 

It's a shame Ian fergusson doesn't post on here anymore . It is good to get a feel of what the Meto thoughts are for winter and what there models are showing ? 

[Pembroke Dangler]

I just feel that we could do with a few more weeks of benign weather like we've had as all the time the cold is getting more intense to our north and as long as the pieces of the jigsaw fall into place later on this month or early December, if we are to hit the jackpot with colder Synoptics we get a higher chance of snow rather than something the models are showing to hit mid month and we end up with a bit of cold rain and the odd frost. So for me the charts can keep churning out eye candy 10 day charts until the last week of the month.

Edited November 10, 2017 by Pembroke Dangler

[karlos1983]

spot the joker in the pack from the overnight runs 

Even the ECMWF could be accused of being a little on the mild side from the 18th onward, what fun will the 12z bring..

[Met4Cast]

The GFS was an outlier not only against it's own ensemble suite but also when compared to the EPS too. The trend remains the same.

- Arctic/Siberian/Greenland high still expected to build (this starts at day 4)

Beyond that, who knows. The UK may end up cold, the UK may end up with slack low pressure sitting over the top of us with nothing much happening. Once we get the Northern Blocking start to actually develop the models should begin to clear up a little. Right now there's just about every outcome possible showing up in the ensembles/charts, and yet, certain members in here are practically calling the end of winter, it's ridiculous in here sometimes.

Nothing has changed.

[Frosty.]

No downgrade to the extended increasingly cold / wintry signal which is the best news today! Expect an emotional rollercoaster through individual runs but the overall longer term trend is the coldies friend..long may it continue!

Edited November 10, 2017 by Frosty.

[karlos1983]

Some loverrrrly Purbs from 06z GFS, here's just a few.

Never mind winters over posts, AUTUMNS OVER  

Edited November 10, 2017 by karlos1983

[booferking]

[KDME]

11 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Some loverrrrly Purbs from 06z GFS, here's just a few.

Never mind winters over posts, AUTUMNS OVER  

Lovely to look at but it is way out though ... Lets keep feet firmly on ground

 

[karlos1983]

2 minutes ago, Weather_Novice said:

Lovely to look at but it is way out though ... Lets keep feet firmly on ground

 

how very boring point is consistency in the overall output is still shaping up very nicely, allow yourself to jump a bit 

Edited November 10, 2017 by karlos1983

[KDME]

12 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

how very boring point is consistency in the overall output is still shaping up very nicely, allow yourself to jump a bit 

ABSOLUTELY!  But toooooooo scared too!  Already viewing from behind a sofa!

Anyway - Back to the models haha

[Connor Bailey Degnan]

Hmm new nao and ao forecast.. make of it what you will

[karlos1983]

1 hour ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

Hmm new nao and ao forecast.. make of it what you will

Don't think that will come as to much of a surprise to be honest. Wont stay negative forever, but I would think that's a bit early (26th ish), although still (predicted) mainly in negative territory at that point. 

 

[Polar Maritime]

Could we please use the Model tweet thread for tweets please instead of posting them in here.

Many thanks.

[karlos1983]

3 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Could we please use the Model tweet thread for tweets please instead of posting them in here.

Many thanks.

Didn't realise they couldn't be used in here now.. that is a shame as sometimes they are quite relevant to the model discussion. Rules are rules.. 

[-uksnow-]

Certainly a better 12z coming in the shorter range, that low coming off America has slowed down significantly allowing cleaner Atlantic height rises - Even better is that its snowing here in Oslo..

 

UKMO looking worlds away from the GFS however, even better?

[booferking]

The 12z is beauty early on brings first lying snow for some starting from late Thursday night Early Friday Morning.

Edited November 10, 2017 by booferking

[Mucka]

10 minutes ago, -uksnow- said:

Certainly a better 12z coming in the shorter range, that low coming off America has slowed down significantly allowing cleaner Atlantic height rises - Even better is that its snowing here in Oslo..

 

UKMO looking worlds away from the GFS however, even better?

UKMO a slow burner but the fact the models are so far apart at 144 as you noted is just a reminder that the models are still in a state of flux when it comes to them trying to nail down any sort of detail regarding the blocking pattern let alone our chances of deep cold and snow.

[Dennis]

back on track 

[Singularity]

Hmm how has UKMO done that? Where's the Arctic blocking or western-Canadian trough to keep the polar vortex from heading toward Greenland?

Odd to see the interaction with the low by the Azores brought back having been dropped by ECM a few runs back. 

Not so keen on that way forward although with the trough west of the UK tilting negative we could see height rises across Iceland for example, as long as the vortex stays west of Greenland.

 

GFS remarkably sharper and faster on this run what with the U.S. trough tracking further west and north. 

 

Good jet angle for sustaining the mid-Atlantic ridge and perhaps undercutting it a day or two later which given the sharpness of the trough by the UK and how far south it's digging (Euro high finally vanquished!) could make for some teasing charts.

[Singularity]

 

Comparing the GFS 06z with 12z across the N. Hemisphere at +228, it looks like a marked step away from much in the way of HLB to the NW, with us instead looking at a combination of a mid-Atlantic ridge and blocking across N. Eurasia. In some ways this looks like an alternative route to what ECM/EPS has been hinting at in terms of some anomalously high heights to our W/NW but not extremely so, and HLB shifted off the pole enough that the AO doesn't so particularly negative.

All very interesting, but the inconsistencies of late greatly limit confidence in these interpretations retaining much relevance even a day from now!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

12z GFS is incredible.  I think though there is a fair bit of tinkering to be had yet...... but a pretty darn cold last 3rd of Nov is definitely the favourite here whichever form.....I hope so ?

 

BFTP

[booferking]

Just now, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

12z GFS is incredible.  I think though there is a fair bit of tinkering to be had yet...... but a pretty darn cold last 3rd of Nov is definitely the favourite here whichever form.....I hope so ?

 

BFTP

Its a bank all the way from my point of view

[tight isobar]

Gfs 12z...

Has atlantic block shorter/medium range...

Then develops a tendancy for stagnant lobe vortex@northern most greenland ..canada N/E SECTOR.

Then evolves and finds a very plausable' scandi block of big significance' longer term!

Amazing modeling atm.

And a lot of late november cold cards flagging up now!

Edited November 10, 2017 by tight isobar