Hurricane Irma

[summer blizzard]

If the data is suspect they'd probably go with FL which suggests 155mph at the surface. 

Hopefully the closed eyewall means we are good to go now. 

Gotta love the GFS though.. forms another system in about 10 days and goes for Florida again..

[Barking_Mad]

Edited September 8, 2017 by Barking_Mad

[Polar Bear]

http://www.miamiandbeaches.com/plan-your-trip/see-miami-webcams#videos

Few nice webcams to look at - Ocean Drive seems to be a few people packing up vehicles.. or maybe they have just got supplies in, A fair few with large cameras too... so I suspect Press is getting ready? Or storm chasers?

 

[Barking_Mad]

Excellent gif showing expected wind speeds.

 

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/906156604537614340

Edited September 8, 2017 by Barking_Mad

[Barking_Mad]

[knocker]

 

[Polar Bear]

4 minutes ago, Barking_Mad said:

Hell fire and Barbuda is bang smack in its path

[Paul Sherman]

Jesus! 8mph short of Cat 5 for Hurricane Jose.

If Hurricane Irma regains Cat 5 Status which is possible, here is the question

Has there ever been 2 Category 5 Hurricanes on the go at the same time ??

[cowdog]

Just now, Polar Bear said:

Hell fire and Barbuda is bang smack in its path

Think they were already trying to get everyone none essential off the island anyway, so hopefully will be no loss of life. Its not like it can do anymore damage as their is nothing left.

 

Just now, Paul Sherman said:

Jesus! 8mph short of Cat 5 for Hurricane Jose.

If Hurricane Irma regains Cat 5 Status which is possible, here is the question

Has there ever been 2 Category 5 Hurricanes on the go at the same time ??

Its only the 3rd time there has ever been 2 cat 4's in the Atlantic, almost certain theirs never been 2 cat 5's in the Pacific at the same time.

[Barking_Mad]

7 minutes ago, Polar Bear said:

Hell fire and Barbuda is bang smack in its path

It (and other Leedward islands) will be a giant shrapnel field. PLus danger of people staying in buildings that might be weakened already.

Edited September 8, 2017 by Barking_Mad

[AderynCoch]

18 minutes ago, Polar Bear said:

http://www.miamiandbeaches.com/plan-your-trip/see-miami-webcams#videos

Few nice webcams to look at - Ocean Drive seems to be a few people packing up vehicles.. or maybe they have just got supplies in, A fair few with large cameras too... so I suspect Press is getting ready? Or storm chasers?

 

I was there in glorious sunshine and light breeze a little over three weeks ago. Strange to think what it's going to be like over the weekend.

I really hope people don't think Irma's not going to be as bad because it's now Cat. 4. A decrease from 180mph to 150mph means very little when the wind field is expanding (Exhibit A - Katrina). Plus of course it could regain Cat. 5 status anyway. 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Nice loop showing Irma's eye clearing up.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-tc-96-1-50

[Yarmy]

Some suggestion that a track over the Everglades could prolong Irma.

This is all feeling a bit voyeuristic now, but what can you do?

[Barking_Mad]

16 minutes ago, AderynCoch said:

I was there in glorious sunshine and light breeze a little over three weeks ago. Strange to think what it's going to be like over the weekend.

I really hope people don't think Irma's not going to be as bad because it's now Cat. 4. A decrease from 180mph to 150mph means very little when the wind field is expanding (Exhibit A - Katrina). Plus of course it could regain Cat. 5 status anyway. 

Katrina was a Cat 3 when she made land IIRC. Of course effects in part due to New Orleans being below sea level, which isnt the case with Florida, although parts are not much above in many places.

 

Edited September 8, 2017 by Barking_Mad

[Iceberg]

Yep here's the eye from slider about 5-10mims ago the new eye is clearing out nicely. A few bits of the old eye wall left but not much. 

Once it's gone it should should shoot up in power. 

[crimsone]

3 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

Yep here's the eye from slider about 5-10mims ago the new eye is clearing out nicely. A few bits of the old eye wall left but not much. 

Once it's gone it should should shoot up in power. 

45 mins ago...

000
URNT12 KNHC 081457
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE   AL112017
A. 08/14:37:30Z
B. 21 deg 51 min N
  075 deg 15 min W
C. 700 mb 2473 m
D. 120 kt
E. 315 deg 20 nm
F. 049 deg 135 kt
G. 315 deg 22 nm
H. 929 mb
I. 8 C / 3048 m
J. 18 C / 3045 m
K. 10 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. CO24-40
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 2111A IRMA               OB 12
MAX FL WIND 148 KT 074 / 45 NM 12:57:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 095 / 7 KT
;

[Barking_Mad]

3 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

Some suggestion that a track over the Everglades could prolong Irma.

This is all feeling a bit voyeuristic now, but what can you do?

Hmmm Interesting: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brown_ocean_effect

[crimsone]

Can we please reserve a special place in hell for this influential <insert expletive>?

Basically, knowing that a bunch of people believe him, he's just put the lives of I don't know how many people at risk, before running off to save his own backside.

[AderynCoch]

13 minutes ago, Barking_Mad said:

Katrina was a Cat 3 when she made land IIRC. Of course effects in part due to New Orleans being below sea level, which isnt the case with Florida, although parts are not much above in many places.

 

Florida is no higher than the Mississippi coast, which got flattened by Katrina. She was indeed Cat. 3 at landfall but the storm surge was typical of Cat. 5. I think the Gulf Coast is more susceptible to storm surge than Florida, but still.

[crimsone]

From Providenciales, Turks....
 

 

[cheese]

29 minutes ago, AderynCoch said:

I was there in glorious sunshine and light breeze a little over three weeks ago. Strange to think what it's going to be like over the weekend.

I really hope people don't think Irma's not going to be as bad because it's now Cat. 4. A decrease from 180mph to 150mph means very little when the wind field is expanding (Exhibit A - Katrina). Plus of course it could regain Cat. 5 status anyway. 

And of course, Cat 4 hurricanes are extremely destructive. Hurricane Wilma in 2005 was a Cat 3 at landfall in Florida and that was certainly very powerful..

 

[FetchCB]

2 minutes ago, AderynCoch said:

Florida is no higher than the Mississippi coast, which got flattened by Katrina. She was indeed Cat. 3 at landfall but the storm surge was typical of Cat. 5. I think the Gulf Coast is more susceptible to storm surge than Florida, but still.

 

6 minutes ago, AderynCoch said:

Florida is no higher than the Mississippi coast, which got flattened by Katrina. She was indeed Cat. 3 at landfall but the storm surge was typical of Cat. 5. I think the Gulf Coast is more susceptible to storm surge than Florida, but still.

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/surge/#IMPACT

Other factors which can impact storm surge are the width and slope of the continental shelf. A shallow slope will potentially produce a greater storm surge than a steep shelf. For example, a Category 4 storm hitting the Louisiana coastline, which has a very wide and shallow continental shelf, may produce a 20-foot storm surge, while the same hurricane in a place like Miami Beach, Florida, where the continental shelf drops off very quickly, might see an 8 or 9-foot surge. More information regarding storm surge impacts and their associated generalizations can be found in the FAQ section.

[Barking_Mad]

7 minutes ago, AderynCoch said:

Florida is no higher than the Mississippi coast, which got flattened by Katrina. She was indeed Cat. 3 at landfall but the storm surge was typical of Cat. 5. I think the Gulf Coast is more susceptible to storm surge than Florida, but still.

I was referring to the fact parts of New Orleans are 6ft or more below sea level, but you're right it's going to be horrific

 

Latest track suggests slight westward shift. 

[Iceberg]

That inner eye is just refusing to die. This is good news for anybody in her track as she will just leak pressure until this gets resolved. 

[FetchCB]

scary as hell

 

Apparently filmed by a resident from his kitchen on Anguilla