Hurricane Irma

[knocker]

5 minutes ago, Barking_Mad said:

How's it compare to other models? Are they all edging that way do we know?

I haven't been keeping a close watch as have been out all morning but the ecm is only a little further west and 10mb higher.

[mountain shadow]

5 minutes ago, staplehurst said:

Vast majority keep Irma's centre mostly to the east of Florida (may get pretty close to SE Florida) and then potentially make a landfall along the NC/SC coast - but a lot of chopping and changing to go...

That's too big a right hand turn for me for such a powerful and large system.

[karyo]

11 minutes ago, staplehurst said:

Vast majority keep Irma's centre mostly to the east of Florida (may get pretty close to SE Florida) and then potentially make a landfall along the NC/SC coast - but a lot of chopping and changing to go...

That's a notable shift north and eastwards since this time yesterday. I'd say a direct Cuba and Florida hit is less likely now. The Carolinas seem to be favoured for now but this is many days from now and the track may shift further.

Edited September 6, 2017 by karyo

[Yarmy]

In line with the above:

A fair few manage to avoid the worst case scenarios. The NHC official track diverges early, and looks somewhat isolated (hopefully, that's a good sign).

 

[wellington boot]

4 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

That's too big a right hand turn for me for such a powerful and large system.

Harvey looped the loop recently. In any case hardly unprecedented, and the models surely aren't going to produce physically impossible scenarios...

[mountain shadow]

2 minutes ago, wellington boot said:

Harvey looped the loop recently. In any case hardly unprecedented, and the models surely aren't going to produce physically impossible scenarios...

I don't disagree with that, it's just my gut feeling. It's like it hits a brick wall.

[Barking_Mad]

St Martin - this part seems to have faired fairly well.

[crimsone]

RE: Barbuda's elevation.

It only has one meaningful town. Apparently, it's 9m.

http://elevationmap.net/codrington-height--uk#menu2

[jvenge]

2 minutes ago, Barking_Mad said:

St Martin - this part seems to have faired fairly well.

I think a lot of the sustained gusts were around the 155MPH mark, rather than the 185 earlier projected.

[mountain shadow]

3 minutes ago, Barking_Mad said:

St Martin - this part seems to have faired fairly well.

Show's the benefit of modern reenforced concrete buildings, compared to say how Haiti suffers with more wooden structures

[Barking_Mad]

19 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

That's too big a right hand turn for me for such a powerful and large system.

 

I was reading a debate on Twitter and many were saying they thought it was being overdone.

[chillyblast]

Hi all

Been watching this with a keen eye, incredible potential for destruction across the Caribbean (hopefully not ofc) - are there any live streams as it heads west? as has been said there was a possibility it may continue head long into Cuba and lose power due to the mountains, or, it will track north along the east of Florida coast.

Interesting to watch this unfold.

[Love Snow]

Some of the footage on global Snapchat is scary shows the full power of this storm. 

[chillyblast]

How do you view the footage on global snapchat? it would be good to see any storm chasers footage out there if there are any too.

[Iceberg]

6 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Show's the benefit of modern reenforced concrete buildings, compared to say how Haiti suffers with more wooden structures

I would be weary during any kind of conclusion from a photo, we don't know a lot about the photo nor can be 100% sure where it was actually taken. Approx 50-60% of everything I've seen so far has been either fake or from previous storms and repackaged. 

The four "most solid" buildings on the island of Saint Martin have been destroyed, French Interior Minister Gérard Collomb announced. 

The above bit is from the BBC. 

[Love Snow]

2 minutes ago, chillyblast said:

How do you view the footage on global snapchat? it would be good to see any storm chasers footage out there if there are any too.

Download the app and follow these instructions basically a map of the world and you go to the area you want see and shows you story's in that area what people have uploaded.

 

https://support.snapchat.com/en-GB/article/find-friends-map

[Iceberg]

28 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

That's too big a right hand turn for me for such a powerful and large system.

I can of agree. I've seen sharp turns like this but they have often been in response to very big drivers. 

The models always suffer with large storms and weak steering currents, partly as the hurricanes will massively create and effect their upper environment and the models struggle with this. 

 

[wellington boot]

 

Given what ECM was previously forecasting, the trend is still clearly eastwards, but southeastern Florida currently right in the middle of the spread.

[crimsone]

1 minute ago, wellington boot said:

 

Given what ECM was previously forecasting, the trend is still clearly eastwards, but southeastern Florida currently right in the middle of the spread.

Southern Florida has been in the middle of the spread all along. Uncertainty is definitely increasing, and yet that fact seems vaguely consistent, which may or may not mean something.

[karyo]

Some of the comments on that Ryan Maue tweet highlight that the track looks similar to hurricane Matthew from last September. That one tracked further east than the models expected so many parts of Florida were spared.

Edited September 6, 2017 by karyo

[crimsone]

Actually feeling a bit numb from all this today.

On the plus side, the central pressure's climbed a bit, with the latest VDM at 1136z showing 923mb

Think we've seen all the cat5-ness any of us could possibly want to see at this point... and then some. 

[Iceberg]

Latest blog Doppler from pr shows the heavy rain and the islands currently being affected 

latest slider shows that the islands hit already are still in the cdo and will be experiencing bad conditions. Nothing has clearly come out the other side yet. 

[FetchCB]

1 minute ago, Iceberg said:

I can of agree. I've seen sharp turns like this but they have often been in response to very big drivers. 

The models always suffer with large storms and weak steering currents, partly as the hurricanes will massively create and effect their upper environment and the models struggle with this. 

 

It would appear that at day 4&5 Irma finds a weakness between two ridges of high pressure. one centred over the continental US and the other the Sub Tropical Atlantic Ridge. Once it finds the weakness it would appear there is nothing to stop it going poleward but the two high pressures prevent it from going east or west.

Thing is the timing of the weakness

[Summer Sun]

Any official word from Barbuda yet?

[Iceberg]

3 minutes ago, FetchCB said:

It would appear that at day 4&5 Irma finds a weakness between two ridges of high pressure. one centred over the continental US and the other the Sub Tropical Atlantic Ridge. Once it finds the weakness it would appear there is nothing to stop it going poleward but the two high pressures prevent it from going east or west.

Thing is the timing of the weakness

Yes but the weakness won't just appear equally one side will be weaker initially and the canes own upper manipulation will widen the weakness. Lots of uncertainty around this but a 6-8 hr turn seems likely

Edited September 6, 2017 by Iceberg