Hurricane Irma

[crimsone]

4 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

that's weakened a lot, which is a good thing, or am I misunderstanding.

It's weaker in that corner anyway...

... but yes, it appears to have weakened ~slightly~. Still Cat 5 though. 

Waiting for a VDM to get an accurate read on pressure, but you don't get one of those without a dropsonde.

Edited September 7, 2017 by crimsone

[alexisj9]

1 minute ago, crimsone said:

... aaaand 158 mph wind found in the NW corner on the way back out.



 

Oops how are the winds so different in the eye, assumed they would be similar.

[crimsone]

VDM finally reported:

920mb. Closed 20 mile eye.

[A Winter's Tale]

I remember coming across this article after Harvey. Just over a week later and potentially we have a catastrophic Category 4/5 hurricane heading for the south of Florida and some models show a worst case scenario of Miami within the NE quadrant of the storm.

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/08/whats-the-next-houston/538200/

[crimsone]

SW eye - 123mph

Edited September 8, 2017 by crimsone

[crimsone]

VDM reported.
NE quadrant of eye - 161mph
pressure: 291mb
Eye: Eliptical - 30/22/16

 

[crimsone]

Typo in the above image. Should be 00:55z, not 23:55z

[crimsone]

Looks like Comms just went out on at least part of Providenciales island. Facebook livestreams just all went dead. Eye of the storm should start tracking across the north of the island in a couple of hours.

[crimsone]

Down to 919 mb... though the eye doesn't appear to have been where they expected it??

 

URNT12 KNHC 080300
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE   AL112017
A. 08/02:35:40Z
B. 21 deg 19 min N
  072 deg 29 min W
C. 700 mb 2384 m
D. 125 kt
E. 330 deg 11 nm
F. 069 deg 141 kt
G. 323 deg 22 nm
H. 919 mb
I. 9 C / 3054 m
J. 19 C / 3048 m
K. 7 C / NA
L. OPEN SE
M. C22
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF309 1811A IRMA               OB 15
MAX FL WIND 141 KT 323 / 22 NM 02:27:00Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 110 / 11 KT
RAGGED INNER EYEWALL WITH OUTER EYEWALL FORMING

Edited September 8, 2017 by crimsone

[cheese]

NHC 11pm update. Hurricane warnings now in effect for southern Florida. It's now expected to be a Cat 3 all the way to Lake Okeechobee (Cat 4 at landfall).

Edited September 8, 2017 by cheese

[knocker]

 A brief recap of some of Irma's most notable meteorological records - valid as of 11pm EDT.

https://webcms.colostate.edu/tropical/media/sites/111/2017/09/Hurricane-Irma-Records.pdf

[Barbmac]

Woke quite early to see what the latest news is but it's not good at all. Irma's path now giving Florida a direct hit. No livefeeds from any of Turks and Caicos that I can find, I imagine it was bad there. Showing latest trajectories and warnings for Irma and Jose:

http://google.org/crisismap/2017-irma?hl=en&llbox=35.46%2C11.66%2C-40.38%2C-100.41&t=TERRAIN&layers=3%2C1340721332252%2C30%2C1%2C31%2C32%2C5%2C49%2C15%2C11%2C20%2C12%2Clayer9%2Clayer8

[Love Snow]

Wrong thread but a huge Earthquake as just hit off the coast of Mexico magnitude 8.0. Tsunami warning issued.

[FetchCB]

2 hours ago, crimsone said:

Down to 919 mb... though the eye doesn't appear to have been where they expected it??

 

URNT12 KNHC 080300
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE   AL112017
A. 08/02:35:40Z
B. 21 deg 19 min N
  072 deg 29 min W
C. 700 mb 2384 m
D. 125 kt
E. 330 deg 11 nm
F. 069 deg 141 kt
G. 323 deg 22 nm
H. 919 mb
I. 9 C / 3054 m
J. 19 C / 3048 m
K. 7 C / NA
L. OPEN SE
M. C22
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF309 1811A IRMA               OB 15
MAX FL WIND 141 KT 323 / 22 NM 02:27:00Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 110 / 11 KT
RAGGED INNER EYEWALL WITH OUTER EYEWALL FORMING

Obviously the erc was impacting the strength as was the probability that the relatively shallow waters around Turks and Caicos restricting some the fuel for Irma 

[Barking_Mad]

Satellite picked up 50ft waves to the east of T&C

 

 

[bluearmy]

00z GFS has slp sub 900mb on approach to s Florida 

[SMU]

 

42 minutes ago, Love Snow said:

Wrong thread but a huge Earthquake as just hit off the coast of Mexico magnitude 8.0. Tsunami warning issued.

Upgraded to 8.4 I think -

[bluearmy]

Early stages on ecm 00z has Irma closer to n Cuban coast with pressure slightly higher as a result. Bad for Cuba put possibly better for Florida if system becomes more ragged with land interaction

Out into open water again and this run looks similar to the 12z. Very marginally west at T48

[SMU]

^^ 72 is still a direct hit for the south

although UKMO is west along the keys-

[bluearmy]

Ecm 00z has the hit slightly west of its 12z which was west of its previous run. Are all the models adjusting more and more toward  ukmo westerly track with time? Slp on landfall 934 which is 5mb higher than last run 

[Iceberg]

Some reasonable agreement now. 

Nhc track, gfs and ec all hit Florida. 

I think we can confirm that Irma will now track up Florida. Also that Miami will be in the Stronger ne quad and likely in it very near the eye. 

Hurricane force winds will travel all the way up with all major cities being effected more notable tampa and orlando. 

Storm surge will be a problem for Miami harbour. The funnelling effect due to position will keep the high water in position. I surge of 15-20ft in places going 3-4 miles in land seems likely. 

Irma is currently struggling with banding due to dry air. This has opened the eye wall leading to slightly raised pressure. Cloud tops are warmer. 

She is still a cat 5 though just !

i fancy a cat 4 on landing in Florida she could be anything from cat 3 to 5. Cuba will effect her however spending quite a bit of time in the Florida strait could lead to significant strengthening due to the deep warm waters. 

 

[Love Snow]

1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

 

Upgraded to 8.4 I think -

Scary sight...

[LightningLover]

https://www.skylinewebcams.com/en/webcam/united-states/florida/clearwater/clearwater-beach.html

For Florida when Irma hits.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TB0B0AsL6fk

Edited September 8, 2017 by LightningLover

[pip22]

A

Andrew left. Irma right.

Edited September 8, 2017 by pip22

[Yarmy]

 

The gist is that the recent colossal solar flare could impact Irma (weaken her) by warming the upper trop/lower strat.