Hurricane Irma

[Iceberg]

Yes just been looking at the slider for this. Dvorak is actually 7.2 and supportive of 145kts. A very angry hurricane likely very low 930s and with the leewards in sight not good. 

[Barking_Mad]

What's with the eyewall? 

 

 

[Iceberg]

It's just a bit of eye wall that's formed and pushed out into the eye. It will either die or strengthen and form a smaller eye. It looks like it will die. 

[knocker]

This morning's ecm has it 936MB over the southern tip of Florida at T150

Edited September 5, 2017 by knocker

[Iceberg]

Ec very much follows the script quite a bit more over Cuba and then up tampa side but the chances of Florida escaping this have to be slim. 

Lots of damage from ec to the islands as well I should add. 

No recon for awhile and Irma could be weakening just a tad. 

[ThundersnowDays]

A few days out but the wind gusts look very bad for Miami.

Edited September 5, 2017 by ThundersnowDays

[SMU]

The guidence is still shifting slightly west-

infact the 00z GEM isnt far off A similar track to Katrina !

New Orleans will still be nervous although its on the extreme western edge of the cone-

Proximity & interaction with Cuba will be key here-

S

[Had Worse]

Dedicated to Irma

Edited September 5, 2017 by Had Worse

[Iceberg]

The eye is looking a little bit better again in the last 20 mins. 

[Had Worse]

4 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

The eye is looking a little bit better again in the last 20 mins. 

 

[Iceberg]

Just for clarity the potential strength of Irma could, today be the strongest for the last 10 years. 

[Zephyr]

She's well in to 30/31c waters now so can't see anything happening other than strengthening, Recon is going out soon might see CAT5 status in the next few hours after data updates.  

Edited September 5, 2017 by Zephyr

[Barking_Mad]

Are the odds on her entering the GoM shortening?

[Iceberg]

Nhc have update to 130kts shy of a cat 5 but not by much. 

Recon are just entering 

[summer blizzard]

Regardless of whether they take the eye, some of these islands are going to be flattened. 

Amazing signature. 

Both UKMO and Euro have a Cuba then Florida hit, they have verified at numbers 1 and 2.

[Barking_Mad]

Just spent some time looking at google maps and the houses in the Florida Keys chain of islands. At barely a few feet above sea level it's hard to see how they're going to avoid serious damage whichever way the hurricane tracks.

 

Link to Google Maps - Key West

Edited September 5, 2017 by Barking_Mad

[Iceberg]

Wow 929 pressure just found

[cowdog]

12 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

Wow 929 pressure just found

At least with her strengthening this fast and so far out it will give impetus to the nations in its possible path to prepare for a possible historic storm.

[Yarmy]

GFS 06z op threads the needle between Cuba and the Bahamas which is the best-case scenario for those places now (they'll still get battered of course), but worst for Florida.

[crimsone]

I am quite considerably concerned that the sharp northward turn of this hurricane in the models is likely to cause many ordinary folk to disbelieve any forecast of it hitting Florida directly. 

I mean, forget that you know anything about weather or climate for a moment, and look at Irmas path and forecast path. Does that Nward turn not seem a little odd if you don't have the context to explain it?

Edited September 5, 2017 by crimsone

[Had Worse]

A very good point and one that I agree with.

The forecast models have had it swinging north for a while but Irma seems to have a ticket to an unknown destination seemingly ignoring the current projection

 

[Barking_Mad]

Best case as far as we can see at the moment is for it to hit the SW of Florida and run over the Everglades.

[karyo]

3 minutes ago, crimsone said:

I am quite considerably concerned that the sharp northward turn of this hurricane in the models is likely to cause many ordinary folk to disbelieve any forecast of it hitting Florida 

I mean, forget that you know anything about weather or climate for a moment, and look at Irmas path and forecast path. Does that Nward turn not seem a little odd if you don't have the context to explain it?

I have to say looking at the ECM frames as an example, it looks as if Irma will continue west/northwest into the Gulf but all of a sudden she turns north. This is still several days away so she may still enter the Gulf of Mexico. It was only a couple of days ago that the ECM was showing Irma to be a fish.

[Had Worse]

Look out for Alligatornadoes in the Everglades then.

[Had Worse]

The first outer bands are wetting St Barth