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Snow And Ice In The Northern Hemisphere 2017/18


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you used to be able to run a sequence for the last 30 days on the US National Ice Centre section the NOAA Website, but it's gone. So I've created a GIF of the last 7 days. I'll do one next week f

Absolutely love this thread. Certainly my favorite of the year. And for posterity, here is what we should be aiming for....

Well, it's that time of the year again, where we can all start turning our backs from summer, and start looking north and east towards the encroaching snows of Siberia.   Lets hope that this

Posted Images

There looks to be some major changes to the Russian landscape, according to EC at least.

Days 1-5: A large low produces a lot of snow in Western Russia, there's also a smaller low north west of Sakhalin generating a lot of snow and snowfall also at Russia's Far Eastern Tip next to the Bering Sea, thanks to the Aleutian Low. The large low weakens and moves towards Kazakhstan at around Day 4. Lows start to develop in Siberia during this period.

Days 6-10: The lows in Siberia bring more snowfall. Central Russia receives snow from the large low, that moves on from Northern Kazakhstan, along the Russia-Mongolia border over this period, bringing snowfall there. Around Day 7-8, a trough develops in Western Russia and by Day 10, it is a strong low dropping lots of snow in European Russia. Also at Day 9-10, the large low, which started in Western Russia, is now strengthening and approaching the Pacific, dumping snow along Russia's Southern Border.

Here is the 500mb anomalies across the Northern Hemisphere, with my annotations pointing out the major lows.

IMG_2537.thumb.PNG.63eb1df4198fc3e43c5557470cd5726b.PNG 

Tomorrow

IMG_2536.thumb.PNG.0bd0b23fc158b87baf0110a74fd0a59c.PNG

5 days out

IMG_2538.thumb.PNG.476a1928cf6a4412013c6c89391d5178.PNG

8 days out

 

Nonetheless, what does this mean?

Well it means a fairly big jump in Siberian Snow Cover extent, towards the West and South.

IMG_2539.thumb.PNG.dfc1beecd621ac4062860cee339c620d.PNG

The SSC goes from this (today's chart) to.....

IMG_2540.thumb.PNG.d23a34b3b7f6c62bce60042247ad896d.PNG

this. As you can see, the 10 day EC Determ model shows snow cover over most of Russia, extending into Northern Mongolia and Kazakhstan, as well as Eastern Europe. Even though much of this snowfall is forecast at a long range and may change, it looks like we will see lots of snowfall across Russia over the next 10 days.

 

IMG_2541.thumb.PNG.4ec3493b989155d1d9f87d42afba215a.PNG

The GFS 10 day Snow Cover forecast for comparison. Looks similar expansion to EC, except for not as much snowfall in European Russia. 

 

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2 hours ago, Katrine Basso said:

Snow and Ice Chart for Europe and Asia for Friday 20 October 2017

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif

 

Quite happy with that so far. There will be west and south advance over the next few days. 

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I'm liking the build up this year, seem more balanced than the previous few years. Snow building in the right areas and advancing ever further West instead of the usual South.

Ice is also looking more robust.

 

cursnow_asiaeurope.gif

cursnow_alaska.gif

cursnow_usa.gif

As you can see, no crazy early falls for USA or China or Mongolia. Eastern Russia has a good covering as does Alaska, these places have previously taken a while to gain snow cover.

I might be looking through rose coloured spectacles  and probably has little bearing on our Winter, but I think things look a little healthier this year.

Edited by SteveB
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To add to recent posts on this page about the steady build up of snowcover, looks like we can report our first snowfall over in Moscow this season! Not sure how this compares to recent years in terms of how early the first snow arrived.

 

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5 minutes ago, Bullseye said:

To add to recent posts on this page about the steady build up of snowcover, looks like we can report our first snowfall over in Moscow this season! Not sure how this compares to recent years in terms of how early the first snow arrived.

 

Current charts show widespread cold pool heading south over there around the Scandinavian high

gfsnh-1-6.png?12

It looks like the Russian Winter has started.

Looking at tonight's ECM -a nice progression of cold further south and west over the next few days .

ECH0-120.GIF?22-0

should help to build and preserve snow cover over the Eurasian continent.

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1 hour ago, phil nw. said:

Current charts show widespread cold pool heading south over there around the Scandinavian high

gfsnh-1-6.png?12

It looks like the Russian Winter has started.

Looking at tonight's ECM -a nice progression of cold further south and west over the next few days .

ECH0-120.GIF?22-0

should help to build and preserve snow cover over the Eurasian continent.

Indeed, yet another test of the SAI. If it fails this year then I for one will be binning it. 

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11 hours ago, blizzard81 said:

Indeed, yet another test of the SAI. If it fails this year then I for one will be binning it. 

I won't be entirely binning the SAI; it's just that I prefer to take more notice of the actual extents of deep cold and deep snow - come the back-end of November?:)

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4 hours ago, SteveB said:

Nice dumping for Western Russia, this is exactly were we want to see it & not heading South to Stans & Iran.

cursnow_asiaeurope.gif

IMG_2560.thumb.PNG.26cea0ab9cd5099aef1fb588912b9d09.PNG

Like I said in my previous post, it will be going down to Kazakhstan next. The snow cover will also expand towards Eastern Europe and (non mountain) Scandinavia, as shown by this EC 5 day snow cover forecast.

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It is wonderful to see the snow cover spreading to Western Russia. If the snow cover keeps spreading at this rate, it won't be long before Scandinavia and Eastern Europe is covered in snow.:D

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We are in sync with the events of the latter part of 2012 which brought a rapid advance of snow cover into scandi and NW russia, the last 4 years produced early significant snow advance south into southern russia, kazakhstan and Mongolia, but then it stalled and struggled to encroach west russia, and when it did it retreated back eastwards in November.

I'm encouraged by the state of advancement this October and the projected rapid build into scandi, which is want we want to see, rather than it heading all to the south.

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23 hours ago, blizzard81 said:

Indeed, yet another test of the SAI. If it fails this year then I for one will be binning it. 

Remember with the SAI that it's the snow south of 60N, not the overall extent. I do agree that we want the southern snow to be attached to the main pack rather than spotty and i certainly don't think snow into Europe will hurt us. Indeed, the colder the better. 

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3 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Remember with the SAI that it's the snow south of 60N, not the overall extent. I do agree that we want the southern snow to be attached to the main pack rather than spotty and i certainly don't think snow into Europe will hurt us. Indeed, the colder the better. 

Thanks SB. I just think this theory is very much in it's infancy and I am yet to be convinced. 

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20 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Thanks SB. I just think this theory is very much in it's infancy and I am yet to be convinced. 

I buy the theory but i think it's an influence on the AO that can be overridden. 

If we look at 09 and 12 we see that the theory worked perfectly however in 14/15 we saw that while the SAI was breaking records the background weak nino/ebo signal (ideal) was overriden by a rampant +PDO enhancing the thermal gradiant.

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45 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

I buy the theory but i think it's an influence on the AO that can be overridden. 

If we look at 09 and 12 we see that the theory worked perfectly however in 14/15 we saw that while the SAI was breaking records the background weak nino/ebo signal (ideal) was overriden by a rampant +PDO enhancing the thermal gradiant.

I see your point. What is the state of the PDO now? 

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9 hours ago, NorthernRab said:

Oh wow. 

cursnow_asiaeurope.gif

Probably the biggest 24 hour increase to date!

Should keep coming down, EC still predicting a push of snow cover to Russia's Western and Southern Borders by the end of the month.

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11 hours ago, blizzard81 said:

I see your point. What is the state of the PDO now? 

Somewhat neutral. We have a +EPO pattern from the anomolies near the west coast (-PDO like) but the central and west Pacific are just generally warm rather than indicative of a PDO state. 

DMxl4VJVAAAODuE.jpg

This a more classic -PDO pattern..

anomnight.12.1.2011.gif

Edited by summer blizzard
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2 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Somewhat neutral. We have a +EPO pattern from the anomolies near the west coast (-PDO like) but the central and west Pacific are just generally warm rather than indicative of a PDO state. 

DMxl4VJVAAAODuE.jpg

This a more classic -PDO pattern..

anomnight.12.1.2011.gif

Just to add to this, you can see the PDO data value here http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest.   I'll take a punt and 'guess' that we'll be weakly negative by Dec/Jan.

 

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While that dump is great to see remember folks we have seen this plenty of times before and then it's disappeared as quick. The ice is where my eye is drawn, that's more evident of prolonged deep conditions

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