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Snow And Ice In The Northern Hemisphere 2017/18


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you used to be able to run a sequence for the last 30 days on the US National Ice Centre section the NOAA Website, but it's gone. So I've created a GIF of the last 7 days. I'll do one next week f

Absolutely love this thread. Certainly my favorite of the year. And for posterity, here is what we should be aiming for....

Well, it's that time of the year again, where we can all start turning our backs from summer, and start looking north and east towards the encroaching snows of Siberia.   Lets hope that this

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1 minute ago, Ross Andrew Hemphill said:

Latest chart. 

cursnow_asiaeurope.gif

The ice has really grown pretty quickly in my opinion. 

Not really, about average growth and about 4th lowest on record I believe.

If the charts are right then ice extent should grow quite a bit on the Pacific side around the weekend and into next week as a strong reverse dipole takes place.

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9 hours ago, Geordiesnow said:

Not really, about average growth and about 4th lowest on record I believe.

If the charts are right then ice extent should grow quite a bit on the Pacific side around the weekend and into next week as a strong reverse dipole takes place.

GS..

 According to MAISIE we are the 3rd highest extent today in the last 12 years, which means there are now probably at least 8 below it!.

There has been  a tremendous surge in the last week in the Russian seas as can be seen from the maps above.

I am interested that you feel that this could increase  even more quickly in the next few days. If it does occur it could become notable.

The ice growth remains 'fairly normal' or  just below in the western Arctic and Greenland.

http://nsidc.org/data/masie/

Edited by Midlands Ice Age
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On 10/12/2017 at 23:58, Midlands Ice Age said:

GS..

 According to MAISIE we are the 3rd highest extent today in the last 12 years, which means there are now probably at least 8 below it!.

There has been  a tremendous surge in the last week in the Russian seas as can be seen from the maps above.

I am interested that you feel that this could increase  even more quickly in the next few days. If it does occur it could become notable.

The ice growth remains 'fairly normal' or  just below in the western Arctic and Greenland.

http://nsidc.org/data/masie/

Ice extent is actually 5th lowest(i got it wrong in my other post) at this present time with 2007,2011 2012 and 2016 all lower than this year at the moment and its growing at an average rate for recent times, at least so far growing faster than it did last year where extent during Autumn was slow to grow because it was so warm and the set ups was had winds blowing in from the Pacific quite frequently thus bringing milder air at times and winds which compacted the ice thus it was slow to grow.

Its a little colder this year and we are going to enter a lengthy phase of a reverse dipole which which means winds will be blowing from the ice cover so we could see some quite large extent increases in the near furture which means we should not have the horror of last October which was one of the reasons why volume was so low also.

Might not be popular on here but I really hope the PV forms strongly over the poles, this can't stop winters from being cold because int he 60's and 70's the polar vortex is stronger than it is now and it still produced cold spells so for me I see little point in hoping for lots of WAA around the Arctic at the moment.

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8 hours ago, Geordiesnow said:

Ice extent is actually 5th lowest(i got it wrong in my other post) at this present time with 2007,2011 2012 and 2016 all lower than this year at the moment and its growing at an average rate for recent times, at least so far growing faster than it did last year where extent during Autumn was slow to grow because it was so warm and the set ups was had winds blowing in from the Pacific quite frequently thus bringing milder air at times and winds which compacted the ice thus it was slow to grow.

Its a little colder this year and we are going to enter a lengthy phase of a reverse dipole which which means winds will be blowing from the ice cover so we could see some quite large extent increases in the near furture which means we should not have the horror of last October which was one of the reasons why volume was so low also.

Might not be popular on here but I really hope the PV forms strongly over the poles, this can't stop winters from being cold because int he 60's and 70's the polar vortex is stronger than it is now and it still produced cold spells so for me I see little point in hoping for lots of WAA around the Arctic at the moment.

GS..

 I think (if you check on MAISIE), you will find the following for day 285, (the 13th), the latest date available.

2017 - 6430

2016  - 5357

2015 - 6208

2014 - 6736

2013 - 7183

2012 - 4545

2011 - 5673

2010 - 6442

2009 - 6543

2008 - 6216

2007 - 5173

2006 - 6276

 All in 1000 kilometres squared.

 I have included the MAISIE link for reference. Just download the data.       http://nsidc.org/data/masie/ 

 As you can see there are 7 lower. These are in fact 2016, 2015, 2012, 2011, 2008, 2007 and 2006.  (It was 9th 2 days ago, and 8th yesterday)   

As you can see there are 4 better than 2017, with the change over of 2010 (6442) from being worse than 2017 to better than in the last 24 hours, and 2009 went above it on Thursday. There are two, 2013 and 2014, still way out in front.

 The point is that it is actually much better than the 4th (as you originally quoted, when 2017 was the 9th lowest)   or even  the 5th that you seem to be quoting now. Are you using up to date data?. 2017 has  made a big spurt in the last 10 - 15 days    (since the change of month) and if you were using monthly data it would not have been picked up.   

 I only bothered to post updating you as you had quoted  that there was likely to be a big increase in the next few days...  in which case, at that point it was conceivable that the ice extent could well have gone from the lowest in April to one of the largest in October.

Surely worthy of attention, as it shows how quickly (Under the correct atmospheric conditions) the ice situation can change, despite not necessarily colder temperatures.

 Re your other points on the Vortex, I generally agree with them.

 MIA

Edited by Midlands Ice Age
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1 hour ago, throwoff said:

My favourite thread is back!

cursnow_asiaeurope.gif

Very different situation to 2016

ims2016290_asiaeurope.gif

ECM seems to give good snowfall for Russia over the next weekend. So, would be expecting a nice steady advance still.

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4 minutes ago, karyo said:

The main difference this year is the lack of snow in Scandinavia and northwest Russia - not good.

nothing to worry about yet, if at all. we've had 'better' years which have come to nothing. we're only half way through october and if anything, it looks very similar to 2010. also, more snow is forecast....

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3 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

nothing to worry about yet, if at all. we've had 'better' years which have come to nothing. we're only half way through october and if anything, it looks very similar to 2010. also, more snow is forecast....

The picture can indeed change but looking at the models  for the rest of the month, it looks like Europe will remain anomalously warm and dry.

Also, I can't see how we are in a similar position to 2010.

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3 minutes ago, karyo said:

The picture can indeed change but looking at the models  for the rest of the month, it looks like Europe will remain anomalously warm and dry.

Also, I can't see how we are in a similar position to 2010.

ok, winter's over.....:80:

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2 minutes ago, karyo said:

So if I disagree that we are similar to 2010 it means that I think winter is over? lol

I think what bobbydog is trying to say is that the snow and ice cover for both this year and 2010 are similar (Judging by both images). The snow was more sustained to east Russia in October 2010, like it is currently now in October 2017.

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11 minutes ago, mpkio2 said:

I think what bobbydog is trying to say is that the snow and ice cover for both this year and 2010 are similar (Judging by both images). The snow was more sustained to east Russia in October 2010, like it is currently now in October 2017.

In terms of what is happening in East Russia maybe, but not similar if you look at the fact that there is no snow so far west of the Urals and the Yamal peninsula.

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2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

cfs-4-11-2017.png?18

Thanks Crewe, so November also looks chilly on the CFS. What I would say is that we need to see a dramatic pattern change in the next few weeks for the November chart to come off.

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Just now, karyo said:

Thanks Crewe, so November also looks chilly on the CFS. What I would say is that we need to see a dramatic pattern change in the next few weeks for the November chart to come off.

To be fair, I can't see this winter being anything but mild again- however that isn't based on anything happening RE snow advance over Eurasia, more the fact that SSTs are conducive to promoting the same pressure distribution stateside that we've seen over the past few. Looks to me like the jet is going to be as fired up as ever.

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22 minutes ago, karyo said:

In terms of what is happening in East Russia maybe, but not similar if you look at the fact that there is no snow so far west of the Urals and the Yamal peninsula.

Snow coming over the next 10 days or so. Not that I buy into this being anything much more than an old wives tale ;-)

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23 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

To be fair, I can't see this winter being anything but mild again- however that isn't based on anything happening RE snow advance over Eurasia, more the fact that SSTs are conducive to promoting the same pressure distribution stateside that we've seen over the past few. Looks to me like the jet is going to be as fired up as ever.

Not ideal for the UK. Weak to moderate La Nina, E-QBO, declining solar. Take out the La Nina and you will find some nice analogs from previous years.

I'd expect to see the jet powered up into early winter at least. No idea after that. However, the jet could run south of the UK and the storm tracks penetrate more into continental Europe.

 

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