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Snow And Ice In The Northern Hemisphere 2017/18


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you used to be able to run a sequence for the last 30 days on the US National Ice Centre section the NOAA Website, but it's gone. So I've created a GIF of the last 7 days. I'll do one next week f

Absolutely love this thread. Certainly my favorite of the year. And for posterity, here is what we should be aiming for....

Well, it's that time of the year again, where we can all start turning our backs from summer, and start looking north and east towards the encroaching snows of Siberia.   Lets hope that this

Posted Images

Here are last year and this year together, it does look a bit healthier than last year in the Arctic, but I'm not sure about ice thickness levels, so it may be a bit misleading.  But fresh snowfall has already reached the far north of Siberia   :)

aug 2016.gif

snow 25th Aug 2017.gif

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2 hours ago, Nizzer said:

Absolutely love this thread. Certainly my favorite of the year.

And for posterity, here is what we should be aiming for....

ims2010327_asiaeurope_zpszyfjjbix.GIF

Hmm, that would be great but highly unlikely this year sadly.  I do love this thread also, though

Edited by Don
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It's great to see this thread back :D

10 hours ago, Don said:

Hmm, that would be great but highly unlikely this year sadly.  I do love this thread also, though

i am not having a stab Don but how do you know that!,do you have information to back that statement up,i know it was a rarity but could happen aagain this winter or the next etc.

 

I

Edited by Allseasons-si
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12 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

It's great to see this thread back :D

i am not having a stab Don but how do you know that!,do you have information to back that statement up,i know it was a rarity but could happen aagain this winter or the next etc.

 

I

Obviously anything's possible but a 2010 repeat does look unlikely at this stage due to pretty much all long range models strongly pointing towards a mild autumn, plus recent musings from some pros that late autumn and early winter are likely to be mild this year.

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2 minutes ago, Don said:

Obviously anything's possible but a 2010 repeat does look unlikely at this stage due to pretty much all long range models strongly pointing towards a mild autumn, plus recent musings from some pros that late autumn and early winter are likely to be mild this year.

As said above, I'm not having a dig at you Don but, the pros were sure we were on a cold one last year....... the rest is history!

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1 minute ago, Don said:

Obviously anything's possible but a 2010 repeat does look unlikely at this stage due to pretty much all long range models strongly pointing towards a mild autumn, plus recent musings from some pros that late autumn and early winter are likely to be mild this year.

We have a long way to go yet Don,lets see what unfolds:)

as for long range models,i don't buy into them and never will,they cannot get a few days away right never mind three months,thats just me though.

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1 minute ago, Nizzer said:

As said above, I'm not having a dig at you Don but, the pros were sure we were on a cold one last year....... the rest is history!

We wasn't that far away though Nizzer(a glancing blow) as you would say.

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4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

We wasn't that far away though Nizzer(a glancing blow) as you would say.

As we well know on these tiny islands, small margins make a big difference.

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Sitting in the garden in shorts basking in hot sunshine yet I'm taking a sneaky peak at this thread! Ridiculous really but we're drawn here at the end of August every year. Perhaps this is going to be the year for snow lovers, but after 5 snowless winters my optimism levels are rock bottom. As they say, it's the hope that kills you!

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7 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Sitting in the garden in shorts basking in hot sunshine yet I'm taking a sneaky peak at this thread! Ridiculous really but we're drawn here at the end of August every year. Perhaps this is going to be the year for snow lovers, but after 5 snowless winters my optimism levels are rock bottom. As they say, it's the hope that kills you!

My levels of optimism are rock bottom also, but that's better than having high hopes as the only way is up!

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15 hours ago, Nizzer said:

As said above, I'm not having a dig at you Don but, the pros were sure we were on a cold one last year....... the rest is history!

Unfortunately (and it's nothing but experience talking here), when long range modelling converges on a mild outlook, a mild outlook is what we tend to get. Models tend to do very well modelling zonal driven regimes and there is usually only small margins of error in the output.

If there was large variability between the main long range forecasting tools and the opinions of the pros then you could argue that attempting to forecast the upcoming winter is futile...however there isn't and I think it's a fairly straight forward call this year sadly.

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28 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Unfortunately (and it's nothing but experience talking here), when long range modelling converges on a mild outlook, a mild outlook is what we tend to get. Models tend to do very well modelling zonal driven regimes and there is usually only small margins of error in the output.

If there was large variability between the main long range forecasting tools and the opinions of the pros then you could argue that attempting to forecast the upcoming winter is futile...however there isn't and I think it's a fairly straight forward call this year sadly.

Ok, I do get the pessimism of some on here. However, you must realise that, never has a cold blast been predicted this far in advance. So excuse me for not given a rat's backside what long range models are saying. 

Now let's not derail this excellent thread no more than we already have.

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6 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Unfortunately (and it's nothing but experience talking here), when long range modelling converges on a mild outlook, a mild outlook is what we tend to get. Models tend to do very well modelling zonal driven regimes and there is usually only small margins of error in the output.

If there was large variability between the main long range forecasting tools and the opinions of the pros then you could argue that attempting to forecast the upcoming winter is futile...however there isn't and I think it's a fairly straight forward call this year sadly.

That's a perfect example of reverse psychology. I say that as I know you would not be so absolute with months to go until Winter. 

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16 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Unfortunately (and it's nothing but experience talking here), when long range modelling converges on a mild outlook, a mild outlook is what we tend to get. Models tend to do very well modelling zonal driven regimes and there is usually only small margins of error in the output.

If there was large variability between the main long range forecasting tools and the opinions of the pros then you could argue that attempting to forecast the upcoming winter is futile...however there isn't and I think it's a fairly straight forward call this year sadly.

Actually, a zonal winter would probably give us more chance of getting a cold northerly toppler, so ironically might be a better bet than waiting for an easterly or something.

It seriously cannot get any worse in the southern UK for snow, we are at rock bottom.

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4 hours ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

Good to see some Siberian snow, but if you see attached (from 3wks ago), the Polar ice still appears to be melting

Aug 9.gif

We are still in the melt season and should reach minimum around mid September.

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12 hours ago, cyclonic happiness said:

Actually, a zonal winter would probably give us more chance of getting a cold northerly toppler, so ironically might be a better bet than waiting for an easterly or something.

It seriously cannot get any worse in the southern UK for snow, we are at rock bottom.

I think 'rock bottom' is overstating our last 4 winters.  I would take a 2 hour northerly toppler with a brief spell of light sleet!

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