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Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st August onwards


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I don't really have much time to look at weather charts at the moment, but after a quick glance at some for tomorrow, it looks as though that they'll be some quite widespread showers for much of England and Wales. Cold ELT's spreading in from the NW, as an Occlusion sweeps through - should provide some hail and thunder.
I expect convectiveweather & Nick F will be doing a map later, to add deeper analysis for it.

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My contribution to this evening.

What a fantastic night we had in central southern England, and many other places too! I've never seen storms of that intensity or frequency in April before! Anyway I thought I would share so

Posted Images

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 08 Sep 2017 - 05:59 UTC Sat 09 Sep 2017

ISSUED 20:20 UTC Thu 07 Sep 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

Large upper trough will dig south across the British Isles towards Biscay during Friday, accompanied by cool air aloft and steep mid-level lapse rates. Seasonally warm SSTs and diurnal heating inland will be sufficient to allow numerous showers to develop widely, some weakly-electrified with small hail - a low-end SLGT may need to be introduced to N and NE Scotland where potential is somewhat higher than many other parts. A few funnel clouds are possible.

The greatest focus, however, will be across southern Britain where a frontal wave will slide eastwards with an instant occlusion potentially developing on its northern flank. There is still some uncertainty as to the exact forecast evolution, but scope for increased forcing to coincide with peak diurnal heating to generate an area of showers and thunderstorms that then migrates eastwards during the afternoon and evening hours across the SLGT. Some of this activity could become reasonably well-organised given some DLS, capable of producing some notably gusty winds and hail up to 1.5-2.0cm in places. This is highly dependant on how much cloud may be associated with the frontal wave, which may ultimately serve as an inhibitor to deep convection.
 
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Storm & Convective Forecast

convmap_080917.thumb.png.19af5f3328e914e1b406dffe3fdf0b4b.png

Issued 2017-09-07 22:09:53
Valid: Fri 8th Sept 6am to Sat 9th Sept 6am

Day 1 Convective / Storm Forecast

Synopsis

An upper low and collocated surface low will drop southeastward across northern Britain on Friday. A strong SWly jet aloft will parallel a slow-moving waving cold front across southern England, to the north of the front, a cool and unstable showerly NWly flow will cover much of the UK.

... S ENGLAND ...

Frontal wave moving east and formation of triple point, as wave occludes, will likely combine with increasingly divergent cyclonic vorticity advection aloft ahead of trough moving SE to force ascent of warm moist air to south of frontal boundary. This may support, with ample vertical shear of 30-40 knots and strong SWly flow aloft, organised convection, perhaps some bowing line segments, capable of producing localised flooding, isolated strong wind gusts, hail, thunder and lighhtning. Have issued a MARGINAL risk for potential for isolated flash-flooding, given signal from GFS and ECM for 300-600 j/g CAPE and fairly high preciptable water (PWAT) content of warm sector airmass across S England.

... ELSEWHERE ...

Steep lapse rates generated by cool mid-level temps of upper low drifting SEwards will, with surface heating and warm SSTs, support scattered showers and weakly-electrified thunderstorms. Small hail, isolated localised flooding and gusty winds are possible with stronger showers or thunderstorms.

Issued by: Nick Finnis

Edited by Nick F
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18 hours ago, James1979 said:

I feel your pain Windblade - if it helps, I've got a long history of going away for the weekend/holiday for the first time in ages only to find out that my area was pummelled just hours/days after me leaving after waiting months (/years sometimes) for more than a rumble!!  Probably the luckiest I've been last Friday in donkeys and your turn will come - like you I was in, lights on and not even aware something may happen until i heard a distant rumble!   I'm moving to Cambridgeshire soon anyway so things will be back to normal around these parts next year don't worry!! :D  On balance, 2017 has been an improvement on previous years, hopefully that will continue.

Thank you for your kind words James. Yes, 2017 has definitely been more active than the dismal 2016. Tonight looks to have some potential although lets wait and see.  

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44 minutes ago, TheToastPeople said:

Just parked up on a hill near bedford, Looking towards Milton keynes its getting rather dark. Hopefully it can remain electrified, Just deciding if i should head towards it or wait it out here. Fingers crossed for all us storm fans!

How's it looking toast? 

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10 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Yes! Been hearing some very decent booms from this thing. Saw it brew up over Stamford, now off towards holbeach/kings Lynn 

I was lucky enough to be on the northern edge out of the main rain so had a cracking view. Sure was some deep rumbles and some lovely low hanging clouds! Sun is drying everthing up nicely now.

Edited by dapick2002
Because the Sun is shining!
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12 minutes ago, Dami said:

How's it looking toast? 

I decided to wait for it, Plenty of rumbles as it aproached but stopped as it reached here. Watched a small cell form overhead then start raining just above cardington hangers, Cant see them the rain is so heavy there! Plenty of crackles and pops still on the AM frequency. So id say its not looking good for us as per usual :rofl:

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10 minutes ago, dapick2002 said:

I was lucky enough to be on the northern edge out of the main rain so had a cracking view. Sure was some deep rumbles and some lovely low hanging clouds! Sun is drying everthing up nicely now.

Not bad for the last portion of our storm season. Tomorrow and the rest of the weekend could deliver some more too hopefully! 

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1 minute ago, TheToastPeople said:

I decided to wait for it, Plenty of rumbles as it aproached but stopped as it reached here. Watched a small cell form overhead then start raining just above cardington hangers, Cant see them the rain is so heavy there! Plenty of crackles and pops still on the AM frequency. So id say its not looking good for us as per usual :rofl:

tis typical. :fool:

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Well there hasn't been anymore thundery stuff for a while now and its currently not raining either.

There were a few more rumbles after I last posted and i wen't outside to inspect those as the thundery shower moved away. Surprised no one else around here has posted to be honest, unless they have all posted in the southwest regional thread.

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some absolutely torrential rain at around 6:30 this morning dropping 5 mm in 3 minutes. Since the diurnal minimum it has been warm, dry and very sunny as was to be expected.

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