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Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st August onwards

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Just now, Ben Sainsbury said:

I completely understand apologies if I was also harsh! It's difficult to explain, when the conditions are marginal a forecast will always be issued than not. Therefore times like this more times than not the forecast will be wrong, so I agree with you there.

Anyhow I like that a lot of forecasts have been produced by a large variety of forecasters this time, brings me better confidence. And as a matter of fact to me it seems like an eternity since Nick have issued a "Yellow Thunderstorm Area" so I'm hopeful!

 

 

Ha! Yes I do love to see those yellows 😄

So from what i understand so far the risk tomo early morning starts in the channel and moves up the west side of the U.K. and across the midlands into the afternoon where diurnals pep these up into fairly hefty storms, then we have a new round from about 8pm in the more central areas of the channel (south of IOW) moving in a similar track but taking these up over Hants, Surrey, the ‘Sexes and the ‘Folks.

Kent will get some action late evening and London will get some activity just after midnight.

(Don’t hold me to this tho!)

 

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7 minutes ago, staplehurst said:

Worth noting that up until now, no MDT risks have been issued - and hence all forecasts so far have suggested storms are more likely to not happen than to happen (SLGT = 30-45% chance). There are very few forecasts issued in this country that carry high confidence, and the greatest uncertainties are often mentioned in each forecast text.

We make mistakes, we're human - the point is to always verify your forecast to see if it went to plan or not, and if not try and find out what went wrong to ultimately avoid that mistake in the future. Two examples from the past month or so (15th March vs 3rd April) where the forecast didn't quite go to plan on one, but succeeded quite well on the other. (Black dots are the detected lightning strikes during each forecast period). In the case of the former, a post-event analysis was posted explaining what went wrong >> .

comp.png

Thanks for the detail. I guess my grapes have soured recently as a lot of the busts were in our area.

(Didn’t have high hopes anyway tho!)

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Did you delete your witty post about poor storm starved Kent @Mapantz:rofl:

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Posted (edited)

To simplify some of the forecasts I've seen, I've identified the main periods of what storms to expect across the UK tomorrow. We are looking at 3 periods of storms.

Ignore the key in the bottom-left I use these for my own storm forecasts. 

risk.thumb.jpg.3ebd12a252a3ce9fd05b1e9657a74c05.jpg

Edited by Ben Sainsbury

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MetOffice rainfall projections for the SE....BANK!

76F28EC8-8970-4D35-8B25-D30D42C91432.png

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37 minutes ago, Harry said:

Did you delete your witty post about poor storm starved Kent @Mapantz:rofl:

You've lost me?!

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I’m up for a few more hours working on a project - can anyone tell me what and where I’m supposed to be looking on sat24 as regards initiation of the first load of stuff?

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Arome and Netwx bring the storms further south on the 18z.

aromehd-1-24-0.png

nmmuk3hrprecip.png

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A hazy line of small but convective looking alto cumulus coming up over the Southern horizon here in Poole

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Initiation over Channel has occurred with elevated storms moving N towards Exeter area and a little E of that. Look very electrically active.

These are as a result of destabilisation of the EML and not anything to do with diurnal heating. SST will have no influence on these.

 

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Does look promising for later now that we are seeing storm activity developing in the channel. Fingers crossed. I'm off to Southampton this evening so may be I will be lucky to see 2 rounds? 😁

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Posted (edited)

Local forecast dry all day now for us now.

Beeb forecast plays it down metoffice says we're in a good spot for storms.

Three different forecasts so back to the radar

Edited by The PIT
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Posted (edited)

It is quite cloudy here currently. I am hoping early mist and haze burns off shortly to hopefully allow for some heating around here. This is needed for surface based storms to develop this afternoon as the storms need to overcome a fairly strong cap. Wind convergence should help to aid this across east Wales, N and W Midlands and then Northern England. However, sunshine is a requirement for these particular storms. From an IMBY point of view these are the storms I am most interested in as I look well placed should they develop.

Temperatures/sunshine amounts are not important for the storms now moving in from the Channel as they are to do with the destabilising of the plume and the storms are elevated. These look likely to affect parts of SW England, S Wales and maybe the SW Midlands. Unfortunately cloud from these could scupper my chances if they come any further east. Storms that "could" move into the south coast and then up through SE England overnight will also be elevated and so cold SST's, lack of surface heating will not matter here either. Overnight it looks likely that general thunderstorm activity (elevated) will increase in coverage for a time, before everything shifts eastwards and out into the North Sea.

Edited by Supacell
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23 minutes ago, Supacell said:

It is quite cloudy here currently. I am hoping early mist and haze burns off shortly to hopefully allow for some heating around here. This is needed for surface based storms to develop this afternoon as the storms need to overcome a fairly strong cap. Wind convergence should help to aid this across east Wales, N and W Midlands and then Northern England. However, sunshine is a requirement for these particular storms. From an IMBY point of view these are the storms I am most interested in as I look well placed should they develop.

Temperatures/sunshine amounts are not important for the storms now moving in from the Channel as they are to do with the destabilising of the plume and the storms are elevated. These look likely to affect parts of SW England, S Wales and maybe the SW Midlands. Unfortunately cloud from these could scupper my chances if they come any further east. Storms that "could" move into the south coast and then up through SE England overnight will also be elevated and so cold SST's, lack of surface heating will not matter here either. Overnight it looks likely that general thunderstorm activity (elevated) will increase in coverage for a time, before everything shifts eastwards and out into the North Sea.

Well I'm about 40 miles south of you and it's currently bright not wall to wall sunshine but the big fly in the the ointment is the stuff coming up from the channel which even if it fizzles I would expect to leave a lot of cloud so this afternoon is questionable at the moment then again Nick F forecast has N Wales North Midlands And N England as best places if it gets going so your well placed for any storms IF they manage to get going

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Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, Harry said:

Que???

Surely the map suggests anything east of Belfast, Glasgow and Inverness COULD see a storm???

That’s true to be fair, it’s just that area over North-Western Midlands and into Eastern and Northern Wales on that chart would seem to have the greatest chance of storms. 

To be fair, despite the hit and miss nature of storms, hopefully we can all get in on some thundery action. Would certainly be a great start to the stormy season. :) 

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
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Posted (edited)

00z EC looking more promising for some storms to develop over northern France this evening then moving NE across SE England and East Anglia ... the EC CAPE charts, not shown, showing area of 1000 j/kg+ CAPE spreading into Kent/Sussex overnight, so could be quite electrically active with some hail.

ecm0125_nat_msl_t850_6urk_2018042100_018.thumb.jpg.61e651a91c76107cdd21e32493427b0a.jpgecm0125_nat_msl_t850_6urk_2018042100_024.thumb.jpg.9d5c5cdad70de86d93cdb8f981e6542b.jpgecm0125_nat_msl_t850_6urk_2018042100_030.thumb.jpg.927a87b202000c9fba3a7e7134405e83.jpg

Edited by Nick F
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Activitiy in the channel seems to be expanding a little further E and moving N

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