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Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st August onwards

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Following sitting just near Cleethorpes I headed south towards Mablethorpe and caught a thunderstorm which moved directly overhead. It was strange in that there were lots of rumbles of thunder but only one flash of lightning, and that was just before storm hit. A brief storm (lasted about 15 minutes) with some torrential rain. Best thing about today was the photogenic skies, some great looking cloudscapes filmed over the flat lands of Lincolnshire :) 

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8 hours ago, Tony M said:

Captured this just before it moved overhead, constant rumbles and occasional forks - tried hard but didn't capture any in a burst of over 2000 photos! Now it's very heavy rain and still rumbling on.

IMG_20170801_154926.thumb.jpg.e323e95ebe0ea8dfa65f23a22304db62.jpg

image.png.b1c5f78c90181762de41f319645d8fe8.png

 

thats the best camera way to capture day time storms......but from experience...it`s a bit of a `canon killer`

Fair play for trying......and very rewarding if you do catch anything

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45 minutes ago, Arnie Pie said:

thats the best camera way to capture day time storms......but from experience...it`s a bit of a `canon killer`

Fair play for trying......and very rewarding if you do catch anything

Another good way is to record 4K video, then you can extract an 8MP still from it. Most Android phones with 4K allow you to do it - it's a great way of getting excellent stills, and if you can set it to 24 or 30FPS, you'll get a decent snap of lightning. :)

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Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 02 Aug 2017 - 05:59 UTC Thu 03 Aug 2017

ISSUED 07:36 UTC Wed 02 Aug 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

... CHANNEL ISLANDS / SE ENGLAND / EAST ANGLIA ...

Plume of high WBPT drawn northwards within the warm sector may undergo some destabilisation during the late afternoon and evening hours as stronger forcing arrives - scope then for some isolated embedded lightning given very marginal instability. In reality, very little lightning may occur.
 
... SCOTLAND / NORTHERN ENGLAND / WALES / NORTHERN IRELAND / REPUBLIC OF IRELAND ...
Overnight the arrival of an upper vortex, positioned near SW Scotland by 6z Thursday, will result in steeper lapse rates as cool air aloft overspreads relatively warm SSTs. Showers will become increasingly widespread from the west during the course of the night, some perhaps weakly electrified. Strong DLS and LLS combined with the passage of a shortwave trough may allow cells to become fairly well-organised, producing gusty winds and perhaps an isolated tornado - most likely from the Republic of Ireland eastwards across the Irish Sea to west Wales, though naturally the probability of this occurring in any one location is incredibly low. Some small hail may also be possible.
 

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2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 02 Aug 2017 - 05:59 UTC Thu 03 Aug 2017

ISSUED 07:36 UTC Wed 02 Aug 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

... CHANNEL ISLANDS / SE ENGLAND / EAST ANGLIA ...

Plume of high WBPT drawn northwards within the warm sector may undergo some destabilisation during the late afternoon and evening hours as stronger forcing arrives - scope then for some isolated embedded lightning given very marginal instability. In reality, very little lightning may occur.
 
... SCOTLAND / NORTHERN ENGLAND / WALES / NORTHERN IRELAND / REPUBLIC OF IRELAND ...
Overnight the arrival of an upper vortex, positioned near SW Scotland by 6z Thursday, will result in steeper lapse rates as cool air aloft overspreads relatively warm SSTs. Showers will become increasingly widespread from the west during the course of the night, some perhaps weakly electrified. Strong DLS and LLS combined with the passage of a shortwave trough may allow cells to become fairly well-organised, producing gusty winds and perhaps an isolated tornado - most likely from the Republic of Ireland eastwards across the Irish Sea to west Wales, though naturally the probability of this occurring in any one location is incredibly low. Some small hail may also be possible.
 

SS...

Do you think that the Midlands have been wiped of the map?

Still no mention?

It really is getting very silly now.

MIA

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34 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

SS...

Do you think that the Midlands have been wiped of the map?

Still no mention?

It really is getting very silly now.

MIA

Didn't the Midlands get a few cells yesterday? You know it's only a matter of time..

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2 hours ago, Another Kent clipper said:

Didn't the Midlands get a few cells yesterday? You know it's only a matter of time..

AKC..

 Thanks for the optimism..

I did record a heavy shower yesterday. It was 10 miles away and I had to go out and storm chase and look for it!!

Just shows how desperate and unlucky the Midlands has been this year. We are all firmly in the NSC around here.

I haven't heard thunder yet this year.

It looks to have been the only one that didn't turn stormy!

The 'watch' goes on.

I see tomorrow is forecast for storms in the North of England and Scotland.

As for time...  I am 73 you know, with a limited amount of it!:)

MIA

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Any chance of some embedded lightning tonight; today-tonight's situation isn't looking too different from what we had last weekend?:)

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It's surprisingly humid today in the NW, with temps reaching almost 20'c and humidity of 90%. Showers are inbound but they haven't turned thundery yet.

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Signs of more instability creeping in now , small shower just gone through.

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21 hours ago, Mapantz said:

Another good way is to record 4K video, then you can extract an 8MP still from it. Most Android phones with 4K allow you to do it - it's a great way of getting excellent stills, and if you can set it to 24 or 30FPS, you'll get a decent snap of lightning. :)

No1 Technosurus im affraid.....dont even possess a phone

having seen some of the photos from this years storms i can see its the way forward and will only improve:)

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Torrential rain with some hail in Durham currently... Looking forward to tomorrow now :)

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Posted (edited)
Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 03 Aug 2017 - 05:59 UTC Fri 04 Aug 2017

ISSUED 22:35 UTC Wed 02 Aug 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper trough will migrate northeastwards through Thursday, primarily affecting northern Britain. Its associated cool mid-levels atop relatively warm SSTs and diurnal heating inland will lead to a few hundred Jkg-1 CAPE. In general, upper trough passage is a little too fast / out of sync with peak daytime heating, and therefore deep convection will probably wane late afternoon into the evening, rather than persisting until mid evening.

 
Nonetheless, scattered showers will develop, rather slow-moving across Scotland under the centre of the low and here low-level wind convergence will aid in development. Greatest potential for lightning will be Aberdeenshire down to Fife, possibly also into the eastern Borders, though in any case this considered a low-end SLGT for now. A few weak funnel clouds or brief tornado will be possible across Scotland, while slow storm motion poses a threat for localised surface water issues
 
Edited by Summer Sun

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9 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

AKC..

 Thanks for the optimism..

I did record a heavy shower yesterday. It was 10 miles away and I had to go out and storm chase and look for it!!

Just shows how desperate and unlucky the Midlands has been this year. We are all firmly in the NSC around here.

I haven't heard thunder yet this year.

It looks to have been the only one that didn't turn stormy!

The 'watch' goes on.

I see tomorrow is forecast for storms in the North of England and Scotland.

As for time...  I am 73 you know, with a limited amount of it!:)

MIA

It's all because I posted a guess on here MIA (as Chris Lea-Alex) that Tamworth would get a storm at 6pm on the 5th May or something.  I had no meteorological knowledge to base it on, just a surface based hunch. I've temporarily jinxed it for the Midlands and for here in Manchester it seems

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Posted (edited)

Ar, that would explain why the Midlands Storm Shield has been harder than marble! :/

Despite their being showers around today, the skies don't look as impressive than they did 2 days ago - very soft looking clouds, where as on Tuesday the clouds looked really defined with clearly visible cumulonimbus towers!

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
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Posted (edited)

A few days now with sunshine and showers, which have at times been thundery. The main thing for me has been the photogenic clouds, and there have been a lot of great pictures showing this from across the country. I went out on both Sunday and Tuesday on two storm chases.

On Sunday I saw very little in the way of thundery activity despite being under a storm just to the east of Newark. Whilst driving under it I only managed to see two feint flashes of lightning. If I had managed to stop and get out I would have probably heard thunder, but I ended up stuck under the rain and I had found myself behind it and so didn't want to stop and let it get away.... inevitably it did get away as the showers were moving at speed. Even so, as I approached there was a nice rainbow on the back of the storm. 

vlcsnap-error326.thumb.png.146c7bc88961561562e0b538959d61fe.png

Later in the evening a heavy shower developed and moved over me not far from Market Rasen. It had no thunder in it but was the most photogenic shower of the day with a very nice structure on it.

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On Tuesday I had a bit more luck, although not much. Then again, it was not exactly a day of widespread big thunderstorms and so to have seen two thundery showers is probably an achievement I should be happy with. I headed up to the Humber on Tuesday and parked up on the north shore in Hessle. A very decent storm was heading towards me, but unfortunately it would track to the south of the Humber leaving me having to watch it from a distance. What was evident was a very strong wind blowing out from the storm across the Humber and directly into me. The wind was strong enough that I had to keep hold of my camera as it was wobbling around when I tried to use a picnic table as a makeshift tripod. Unfortunately it was also strong enough that it pretty much drowned out the sound of the thunder. I managed to catch a few feint flashes the other side of the Humber but I was a little disappointed it had taken a last minute shift. The first picture is the storm moving in from the west (on the opposite side of the Humber) and the second is as it shrouds the other side of the Humber Bridge in a curtain of precipitation.

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After this I chased across the Humber and towards Cleethorpes as a storm was ongoing there, but again the speed it was moving put pay to me getting anywhere near it. By the time I arrived in Grimsby the storm was out in the North Sea and now just a heavy shower. Another heavy shower had formed behind it though, and this was following a similar path to the storm. It did not turn thundery, which surprised me considering how dark the clouds were. Check out the gust front that developed on the front of this shower as viewed from Cleethorpes.

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I had now all but decided to go home when another storm erupted all on its own to the east of Nottingham. This looked likely to track across Lincolnshire and towards Mablethorpe. As it seemed to be going strong on its path from Nottinghamshire into Lincolnshire, I headed down the east coast to intercept it, finally arriving in Sutton on Sea whereby I could see the storm approaching in the far distance (about 5 miles away at a guess).

By the time the storm arrived it was still going, but it was a weak thundery shower, fairly typical of the day really. As it moved over I found that although there was a rumble every 2-3 minutes there was no visible lightning. Still, it was a photogenic storm and it was better than nothing. The rain core was clearly visible just to my north, and so I drove north just a couple of miles where the storm did briefly produce a bout of torrential rain, which seemed to leave a lot of standing water despite it only lasting a few minutes. The storm would move onto the coastline and then out to sea as I drove under it (or maybe just behind) it.

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As the storm moved out to sea it also died out, but I could still see the structure as it moved off to the north-east and another rainbow greeted me to my south.

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Driving home it was now getting late and the sun was setting. Parked up on the A46 out of Lincoln I took some photos of a spectacular sunset against the decaying shower clouds.

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A day of thundery showers, just what had been forecasted. Now I find myself craving a proper storm again though, when is the next plume due I wonder.

Edited by Supacell
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If only this was to happen, would remind me of last year only this shows it heading further North. If this happened though but at night then that'll do me for the Summer ;)

storm 19.png

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5 hours ago, TJS1998Tom said:

If only this was to happen, would remind me of last year only this shows it heading further North. If this happened though but at night then that'll do me for the Summer ;)

storm 19.png

Ar, if only! It would, for sure, make a dent on our storm shields!

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Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 04 Aug 2017 - 05:59 UTC Sat 05 Aug 2017

ISSUED 08:08 UTC Fri 04 Aug 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

... SCOTLAND ...

Slow-moving occlusion providing showery outbreaks of rain may produce an odd isolated lightning strike given some marginal instability.
 
... REPUBLIC OF IRELAND, WALES AND ENVIRONS ...
A notable mid-level shortwave / cold pool will slide eastwards across Ireland to Wales overnight. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong forcing will result in an increase in deep convection, starting initially in W Ireland late evening, and running east to Wales during the early hours. A couple of low-end SLGTs have been issued for some lightning potential during this period.
 

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Posted (edited)

Some forecasts are showing interest for tonight and tomorrow across the middle of the country. Heavy showers and some thunderstorms move through Ireland and into Wales during the early hours and then across the Midlands and on into East Anglia through tomorrow. At this stage I would pick the West Midlands around lunchtime as a favoured area, but still time for shifts in the areas at risk or even if there will be a risk at all.

Edited by Supacell

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Posted (edited)

Hey Supacell, beautiful pics. Thanks for sharing and glad you had an interesting and eventful day. Couple of things I saw on your pics that could warrant closer inspection...

 

Funnel.thumb.jpg.07a22c32d8495c19b22d346c8b247ec3.jpg

Possible funnel trying to form or just cheeky scud?

 

 

59843ffdbdc15_WallCloud.thumb.jpg.9c38b08cb4f66b0a44c38e15085f5ba3.jpg

Wall cloud?

 

 

Maybe I'm clutching at straws here (I'm always on the lookout for tornadic activity), but I think the above could warrant further investigation. Certainly interesting shapes there. :good:

 

Edited by Windblade
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Just had this near to my house in Stoke Gifford. Is this scud or a potential funnel cloud?

IMG_20170804_164011.jpg

IMG_20170804_163952.jpg

IMG_20170804_163908.jpg

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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, Windblade said:

Hey Supacell, beautiful pics. Thanks for sharing and glad you had an interesting and eventful day. Couple of things I saw on your pics that could warrant closer inspection...

Maybe I'm clutching at straws here (I'm always on the lookout for tornadic activity), but I think the above could warrant further investigation. Certainly interesting shapes there. :good:

 

Hey Windblade, thank you :)

I have just watched the video back of the storm near the Humber and I think the first is just scud, it doesn't drop any further than on these pictures and the general behaviour was more like scud than a funnel. If it was a funnel it was a long away off and too far to really get a good view on from where I was. However, the storm I was watching was quite intense on the radar. No rotation evident though, so I would say most likely scud.

The second picture though is almost certainly a wall cloud. Nothing more happened with it though unfortunately.

@Jasper Foxx, my initial thought is that they look like scud. However, seeing it moving would help determine. If there was rotation evident and it was formed out of the base of the storm cloud then it is likely it was a ragged looking funnel. If it was dropping and undulating below the base of the cloud and with no visible rotation then it was almost certainly scud.

Edited by Supacell

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Heavy showers around earlier today but we managed to stay dry the entire day but there were some big showers in the area with fairly light winds.

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