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Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st August onwards

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Some embedded convection within the front to my East (had rained a bit earlier here)

A722D307-7678-46E2-8D28-2C15C0F07562.thumb.jpeg.51859f7f42c3811be7e7421d15197ab7.jpeg

Also took a recent screen capture of the Netweather radar, which is showing a line of some very torrential rain just to the East and North-East of London, with some red echoes. And maybe some thunder?

703433C4-2083-4EB2-B129-328AC76F1051.thumb.jpeg.4004bc075cb8f9ea19a4e4165b6566d4.jpeg

Looks wild down their! 

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1 hour ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Looks wild down their! 

There's going to be some high rainfall totals to the east of London by the end of this evening!

Hoping for some better convective prospects to appear in the models soon. The weather is great here at the moment, but the one thing that would top it would be to have some more continental energy injected into the mix!

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2 minutes ago, Convective said:

There's going to be some high rainfall totals to the east of London by the end of this evening!

Hoping for some better convective prospects to appear in the models soon. The weather is great here at the moment, but the one thing that would top it would be to have some more continental energy injected into the mix!

Indeed! A chance that some places to the East and South East getting some flooding from all that! Possibly some services getting disrupted too.

And that would be nice. Love to see some nice juicy storms this Summer. Last year was fairly disappointing for thundery weather (at least in this part).

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23 hours ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Some embedded convection within the front to my East (had rained a bit earlier here)

A722D307-7678-46E2-8D28-2C15C0F07562.thumb.jpeg.51859f7f42c3811be7e7421d15197ab7.jpeg

Also took a recent screen capture of the Netweather radar, which is showing a line of some very torrential rain just to the East and North-East of London, with some red echoes. And maybe some thunder?

703433C4-2083-4EB2-B129-328AC76F1051.thumb.jpeg.4004bc075cb8f9ea19a4e4165b6566d4.jpeg

Looks wild down their! 

Nope, no thunder, just rain.

This years been absolutely shocking so far. I've heard one very, very faint, just barely audiable rumble in late march and thats it. Looking like nothing happening anytime soon either.

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9 minutes ago, Windblade said:

Nope, no thunder, just rain.

This years been absolutely shocking so far. I've heard one very, very faint, just barely audiable rumble in late march and thats it. Looking like nothing happening anytime soon either.

Same here don’t even recal anything thundery last autumn either. So a very long stretch of nothingness and it looks to remain this way for quite some time. 

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10 hours ago, Daniel* said:

Same here don’t even recal anything thundery last autumn either. So a very long stretch of nothingness and it looks to remain this way for quite some time. 

 

11 hours ago, Windblade said:

Nope, no thunder, just rain.

This years been absolutely shocking so far. I've heard one very, very faint, just barely audiable rumble in late march and thats it. Looking like nothing happening anytime soon either.

I haven’t even had a faint rumble yet... :(

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1 hour ago, LightningLover said:

 

I haven’t even had a faint rumble yet... :(

For a lightning lover that can only mean a broken heart 💔

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Posted (edited)

The chance of some surface based thunderstorms in the far southeast, moving north east- south west. With up to 450kj/g there are more likely to be pulse storms rather than organised, but the isolated stronger cell can’t be ruled out. Only a 50% chance of lightning today though. I really hope convective weather pick up on this for today’s small chance of seeing the first thunderstorm in the southeast. As being in Essex missed the last storms from  the last heatwave. Also funnily enough I have never seen estofex issue a forecast and not convective weather. Maybe the chief forecaster is busy this week!

BD9487BD-B27C-48DF-9FF1-DAD80197B36B.png

Edited by Justin123
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1 hour ago, Justin123 said:

The chance of some surface based thunderstorms in the far southeast, moving north east- south west. With up to 450kj/g there are more likely to be pulse storms rather than organised, but the isolated stronger cell can’t be ruled out. Only a 50% chance of lightning today though. I really hope convective weather pick up on this for today’s small chance of seeing the first thunderstorm in the southeast. As being in Essex missed the last storms from  the last heatwave. Also funnily enough I have never seen estofex issue a forecast and not convective weather. Maybe the chief forecaster is busy this week!

BD9487BD-B27C-48DF-9FF1-DAD80197B36B.png

I've looked at the potential but decided not to issue anything - it really is just the GFS producing anything, all other models are practically dry. Some decent CAPE, but virtually no shear, dry looking profiles too. As you say, if anything did develop it would be pulse-type rather than anything organised, and hence relatively short-lived. So some convection may bubble up in SE England, but will likely struggle to gain sufficient height to produce very much - GFS has a habit of overdoing these marginal risks due to its issues with excess moisture. 

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2 hours ago, staplehurst said:

I've looked at the potential but decided not to issue anything - it really is just the GFS producing anything, all other models are practically dry. Some decent CAPE, but virtually no shear, dry looking profiles too. As you say, if anything did develop it would be pulse-type rather than anything organised, and hence relatively short-lived. So some convection may bubble up in SE England, but will likely struggle to gain sufficient height to produce very much - GFS has a habit of overdoing these marginal risks due to its issues with excess moisture. 

Oh ok! That makes sense now. Sorry, should have looked further before posting that, but thanks for your help. Is it because the GFS isn’t as high res as some models.

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4 hours ago, Justin123 said:

Oh ok! That makes sense now. Sorry, should have looked further before posting that, but thanks for your help. Is it because the GFS isn’t as high res as some models.

It's more an issue with the GFS physics than the fact it's a global model per se - this issue tends to feed into high-res models that use the GFS for its boundary conditions, such as WRF and NMM, so even though they are higher-res models they also have a habit of being too keen on developing showers in the same situation. Several other global models that have the same resolution as the GFS are pretty much dry today.

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Talk of some showers next week. Wondering if there's any storm potential? 🌩️

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Just checked the gfs chart (my first time ever analysing charts so I'm a chart noob) but from what I can see pretty much every day next week holds a chance of some action. 

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1 hour ago, Windblade said:

Talk of some showers next week. Wondering if there's any storm potential? 🌩️

Yes netweather have storms. Forecast here for Monday and Tuesday.

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Metoffice have thrown up the lightning symbol for Northolt on Monday... whats going on next week people of much knowledge?

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Next week it looks like there is a possibility of low pressure developing over northern Iberia, or the Bay of Biscay hence the energy being pushed northwards presenting the risk of some storms. However, it looks as though the energy will follow more of a east-west transition rather than being pushed from south to north. With a bit of luck, that will change over the next few days meaning that the northern half of the country can join in on the potential fun.

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9 hours ago, Convective said:

Next week it looks like there is a possibility of low pressure developing over northern Iberia, or the Bay of Biscay hence the energy being pushed northwards presenting the risk of some storms. However, it looks as though the energy will follow more of a east-west transition rather than being pushed from south to north. With a bit of luck, that will change over the next few days meaning that the northern half of the country can join in on the potential fun.

Slightly better this morning.

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The fax chart not without interest on Sunday night into Monday.Two troughs appear to be moving toward the SE from the Low Countries.

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Good afternoon all 😊
Well, like a few others on here, its safe to say that I'm enjoying this summery spell of weather after the squelch fest that April was! But also I'm starting to feel a little storm starved, so I thought I'd have a quick look to see if there is anything of possible interest on the horizon... And guess what? 🌩️⛈️😁

So, here is what the 00z GFS run is showing for next week...
 

Lets start off with Monday and work through to Friday.
Now I'm not saying that there is going to be a storm on any of these days, but, it does show that at least we have storm potential. 🌩️⛈️😁


 

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Indeed the risk of a few thunderstorms throughout next week. I will be closing this thread and opening a new one shortly to take us into the proper storm season for 2018.

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Posted (edited)

Locking this thread now, new thread here:

 

 

Edited by Supacell

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