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Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 8th July onwards

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1 minute ago, bigguscumulus said:

Pretty sure I saw someone with a copper wired kite too. 

 

One of the ladies was also wearing a very nice dress. Hardly suitable for a storm. But moving on. It's still raining.

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..some cold cloud-tops on that..

Screenshot_2017-07-18-12-38-38.thumb.png.b3221b2773d12eaea2f86a9a95ebefa1.png

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Latest FAX chart doesn't fill me with confidence at all - trough now staying put further W as of 6z tomorrow.

NMM still resolute on keep storms further west with eastern parts dry. As is NetWx SR which seems more resolute now on action being further west.

However, Euro4 still favouring SE parts more over western parts (wasn't too long ago there were a lot of Euro4 champions for this time frame). See pic below.

Latest UKMO update now completely on board with Euro4 (earlier it wasn't keen on any apparent outbreaks).

This is really very interesting!!

 

 

17071900_1806.gif

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Does anyone have a link to any webcams which work to watch this storm thats currently happening right now? 

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First thing this morning, Meteofrance had an orange warning St Malo area across to Cherbourg peninsula - exactly where that Carnac storm is heading. Seems a bit more precise than the UK forecasts...

They have the stronger storms heading to the East later it appears 

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3 minutes ago, Harry said:

Latest FAX chart doesn't fill me with confidence at all - trough now staying put further W as of 6z tomorrow.

NMM still resolute on keep storms further west with eastern parts dry. As is NetWx SR which seems more resolute now on action being further west.

However, Euro4 still favouring SE parts more over western parts (wasn't too long ago there were a lot of Euro4 champions for this time frame). See pic below.

Latest UKMO update now completely on board with Euro4 (earlier it wasn't keen on any apparent outbreaks).

This is really very interesting!!

 

 

17071900_1806.gif

Its all up in the air at the moment isn't it? No one can seem to agree on which direction the storms for tonight will head in. I'd say best to watch the radar closely near to the timeframe and go from there.

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This webcam is pretty cool. Every now and then it pans around to show the cloud structures to the Southwest of St Malo. Hopefully we will see these in the South later!

 

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I'm at home in South Shropshire but have to be in Southampton tomorrow... was just about to book a hotel from tonight and travel down late in the evening but before committing wondered which location you guys would rather take your chances in...

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Latest MetOffice video posted 2 hours ago...still looks promising for many 

 

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More northwards shift now on that beast over northern France no?

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7 minutes ago, Hector the Convector said:

This webcam is pretty cool. Every now and then it pans around to show the cloud structures to the Southwest of St Malo. Hopefully we will see these in the South later!

 

:friends:

stmalo.png

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Not only have we actually had some proper sunshine here, also seeing the first non cirrus convective cloud appearing.

image.jpeg

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10 minutes ago, baxybaxy said:

First thing this morning, Meteofrance had an orange warning St Malo area across to Cherbourg peninsula - exactly where that Carnac storm is heading. Seems a bit more precise than the UK forecasts...

They have the stronger storms heading to the East later it appears 

I expect they were going off their own high resolution Arome model.

tempresult_llx8.gif

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3 minutes ago, steve86 said:

More northwards shift now on that beast over northern France no?

Yes I've been thinking that. I mean I might just be seeing things but does look less like heading up the channel/france coast and more like heading for somewhere along the central south/south east?

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Just now, Rob Walker said:

Yes I've been thinking that. I mean I might just be seeing things but does look less like heading up the channel/france coast and more like heading for somewhere along the central south/south east?

Wait, so the kent magnet is obviously under maintenance today :D

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Just now, Gael_Force said:

I expect they were going off their own high resolution Arome model.

tempresult_llx8.gif

Looks pretty accurate so far, Plymouth arm dying out and the interesting stuff going to Calais

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Some nice clouds in Plymouth now.

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I have a horrible feeling that the Northern France storm is going to have too much of an Easterly element to it, making landfall somewhere in the South East.

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4 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

I expect they were going off their own high resolution Arome model.

tempresult_llx8.gif

:bad::bad::bad::bad::bad::bad: for here IMBY :laugh:

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Very stable looking skies in London at the moment 

IMG_1218.JPG

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Here's hoping that Plymouth monster doesn't split and continues its path northwards .....(TMBY) 

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