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Supacell

Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 8th July onwards

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1 minute ago, SouthernSun said:

First signs of an early evening of moderate rain. No sferics activity associated with what's moving into Dorset and Wedt Hants.

I was thinking that although the last few frames on the radar suggest it might be intensifying again. 

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Just now, SouthernSun said:

First signs of an early evening of moderate rain. No sferics activity associated with what's moving into Dorset and Wedt Hants.

Yeah looks like a load of crap to me lol typical!

Will keep an eye on it when it meets land though just in case....

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4 minutes ago, Harry said:

If it veers east again that'll be the first time I've seen a storm do an 's' curve 

It already is. If you try to bisect the old strikes along with the new ones you can see the hint of an eastward shift. Here's the (not pointing at Rochester) centre of the storm track based on what we can see right now. This is the storm, mind, (so centre of the lightning) not necessarily the centre of the rain.

stormtrack.thumb.png.cd8341f9a4d6560d860ad50dc0c48f23.png

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Breeze keeps getting gusty, Hopefully something can fire further north of this messy band in the southwest!

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2 minutes ago, TropicThunder said:

Looks like it may be re-intensifying SW of the IOW

Seems to be quite rapidly. 

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Hi gang ,hope all will see something ,looking at all the ingredients ,if you are in the right spot it could be very exciting .just hoping that it all slows down a bit till sun down ,then half a thatchers and up the wood shed to enjoy mother nature [fingers crossed cheers ] .:yahoo:

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Coverack has had torrential rain since 3:30 hope we don't get an repeat of the flash flooding seen in the other small Cornwall town many years ago. Fire service already reporting fooding there. 

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1 minute ago, dave reid said:

Sat on the cliff tops in Bournemouth and it looks like this to the south 

1500394514709-1754597553.jpg

I'll be heading down to the clifftops here in a few minutes so should get a decent view of it from there. 

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1 minute ago, VillagePlank said:

It already is. If you try to bisect the old strikes along with the new ones you can see the hint of an eastward shift. Here's the (not pointing at Rochester) centre of the storm track based on what we can see right now. This is the storm, mind, (so centre of the lightning) not necessarily the centre of the rain.

stormtrack.thumb.png.cd8341f9a4d6560d860ad50dc0c48f23.png

So the French storms are heading to Kent and the SW storms look to be heading north and so it looks like most of us will miss out. No point me heading to London if this is the track. I will try and remain hopeful that something will develop in the middle of the two storms, or one of them will change their track and head a bit more through middle England.

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1 minute ago, matt111 said:

I'll be heading down to the clifftops here in a few minutes so should get a decent view of it from there. 

I'm out chasing this eve and at mo I'm not having to go more than 100meters from my flat :)

 

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Just now, Supacell said:

So the French storms are heading to Kent and the SW storms look to be heading north and so it looks like most of us will miss out. No point me heading to London if this is the track. I will try and remain hopeful that something will develop in the middle of the two storms, or one of them will change their track and head a bit more through middle England.

It has become increasingly clear through the day that middle England is at risk of missing out here altogether. Such is the fickleness of the weather!

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Just now, Supacell said:

So the French storms are heading to Kent and the SW storms look to be heading north and so it looks like most of us will miss out. No point me heading to London if this is the track. I will try and remain hopeful that something will develop in the middle of the two storms, or one of them will change their track and head a bit more through middle England.

GooFuS seemed to have said exactly that in it's last diatribe

bifurcation.thumb.gif.fa15cf5eef649f030eccddc50a0478f6.gif

 

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So if that track of the French storms is right and remains as it is, it should just skirt the bottom edge of Essex, which is good enough for me

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2 minutes ago, Supacell said:

So the French storms are heading to Kent and the SW storms look to be heading north and so it looks like most of us will miss out. No point me heading to London if this is the track. I will try and remain hopeful that something will develop in the middle of the two storms, or one of them will change their track and head a bit more through middle England.

You're best bet is tomorrow, I reckon, especially after dawn

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1 minute ago, VillagePlank said:

GooFuS seemed to have said exactly that in it's last diatribe

bifurcation.thumb.gif.fa15cf5eef649f030eccddc50a0478f6.gif

 

Darn it!! Haha, well looks like a trip to Wales on the cards for me then... Kent is just a bit too far.

Edit: Thanks VP, it also looks good around my area (and maybe a bit further north) tomorrow if cloud can break and surface heating gets going. Although Euro4 doesn't like this idea at the moment.

 

Edited by Supacell
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Sferics further west again now. 

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All this nonsense about the French storm is a waste of time! If you look at the rain radar and read the strike map properly you'll see it's a diagonal band of storm cells moving north and slowly dying off from the western side.

The rain swathe is also headed north but with a swirly-whirly style which is also making the strike map appear to show storm motion favouring an eastward track.

Reading what I have I expect this French Guff rubbish to die-off over the next hour and new storms to intensify in their place to marry-up with the sun going down.

Who wants lame day-time storms when you can wait a bit and have a night-time spectacle!?

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23 minutes ago, RichmondWeather said:

I need to stop watching the same bbc forecast over and over again. It just gives me the jitters. Best we just calm down and wait.

Which is exactly what most of us have been doing for much of the day already ;-)

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Is it me or is their a difference in the steering direction in different places?

For example, the cells over mid Devon & west Somerset seem to be moving N/NNW, but the ones over east Cornwall/West Devon appear to be moving NNE?

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