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Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017


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An unseasonally wet, cool and windy day amidst an underwhelming week of weather does not a summer make. Much as anticipated through the second half of Spring, the hand-over to Summer sees the atm

There have been some strange observations made today, as too often occurs in this thread whatever the time of year, and largely based on the usual knee-jerk response to longer term suggested NWP.

You always seem to jump in on my posts, along with a few others. Why don't you try giving your assessment of the models instead of picking holes in others efforts!

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We're still on course for a more settled spell next month according to the GEFS 6z mean as the Azores high ridges in across the UK, at least central / southern UK would enjoy welcome respite from the unsettled / atlantic conditions.

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Edited by Frosty.
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I am always wary when there are no posts on a model run and low and behold the GFS12z offers heat lovers little to nothing. It becomes less cyclonic/wet but most of northern Europe would be comfortably below average in terms of temperature from such a setup. 

Day 5..

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Day 10..

GFSOPEU12_240_2.png

Day 15..

GFSOPEU12_360_2.png

Signs in the day 5-10 range that the primary low may back north west a little but in low res the primary trough breezes through. 

As mentioned before, this summer is reminding me of summer 2010 but with a higher amplitude (i.e. better June and probably worse August, July was pretty mild and muggy in the first half).

..

For heat fans i will say that i was thinking earlier that the CCKW lowering heights in the tropical Atlantic may displace a downstream ridge in the mid-lattitudes. I'd perhaps be looking towards the 10th for something more seasonal albeit this wave by its nature will pass and the background signal globally will see a pattern more like the current one return by default. 

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55 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

For heat fans i will say that i was thinking earlier that the CCKW lowering heights in the tropical Atlantic may displace a downstream ridge in the mid-lattitudes. I'd perhaps be looking towards the 10th for something more seasonal albeit this wave by its nature will pass and the background signal globally will see a pattern more like the current one return by default. 

There's no sign of any positive anomalies for surface temp on the 4 week ECM mid range forecast. Second week of August below.

meTz20170727_0000+43200.png

http://www.met.hu/en/idojaras/elorejelzes/europai_elorejelzes/

 

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ECM is rather abrupt w/ its latest update; No to any settled weather propagated by MetO. We'll need to start seeing these ' glimmers of hope' pop up on the models soon, otherwise, its another pony ride to eternity. 

Day 9 on the ecm shows another low heading our way as per below. Day 10 ends unsettled.

 

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Edited by draztik
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Still no sign of a return to the kind of summer most of us want to see in August from the latest Ecm / Gfs / Gem runs. The Ecm 12z T+240 shows great potential....for our weather to continue as it is now..I can feel the enthusiasm draining out of me as I type this.:D

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Edited by Frosty.
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The ecm is handling the second low next week quite differently to the previous run which alters the evolution for the end of next week and later a fair bit. At least it takes the worst case scenario for next weekend out of the equation.

So a little more detail. The main low situated west of Ireland by 12z Wednesday with the associated fronts lying down the Irish Sea. Thus a very wet Wednesday/Thursday on the cards with the low over Scotland by 12z Thursday with most of Britain in a strong W/NW flow producing many showers which may well be quite wintry. And incidentally there is a strong 130kt jet running across Cornwall at the same time.

Over the next 48 hours it moves the main low east into the North Sea  runs the secondary feature into France before dissipating it, leaving the UK in a showery NW as the the Azores rides in at the same time.

But the ridge is transient as the ecm will not drop the idea of winging the next trough around the Azores HP and it duly arrives on Monday

 

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Looks terrible again tonight...bbc being very bold in predicting high pressure against the grain of al the other output. If we miss this window, we could be on the way to last chance saloon for summer 2017.

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Meanwhile,  in the mid / longer term the GEFS 12z mean continues to look very encouraging for a return of summer, at least across southern UK as the Azores high gradually builds in.:santa-emoji:

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Edited by Frosty.
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Im afraid im getting a sense of deja vu this evening.

Hoping for the best but expecting a bbc backtrack very soon.

Its the old chicken and egg but something is feeding this southerly tracking jet..

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Evening all :)

Frosty's natural optimism notwithstanding, there are plenty of GFS Members showing a more settled picture out at T+240:

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240

Only a couple show the HP drawing up warm/hot air and indeed settled may mean the Azores HP ridging to our NW pulling in a NE'ly flow.

Plenty more runs needed as they say...

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

more like lots of showers between the rainbands and not a lot of fine weather at all..for the week ahead!:)

Sounds good, Frosty...I can still (just about) remember coming home from school - circa 1965 - and seeing a combination of light rain and crepuscular rays.

That sense of wonder has always stayed with me. And so has that image!:santa-emoji:

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Trying to work it out - now that I can see the ECM ensemble clusters as well as the GEFS ensembles, it's interesting to see what is making up those better mean charts...

Although there's been a real mix in the ECM ensembles and I'm reluctant to trust a pattern change from GEFS, I feel a kind of trend emerging after this Thursday - a ridge-trough-ridge pattern. 2 or 3 good days, then a worse day, then 2-3 more good days. This would mean an improvement, but not a transformation. And, it would seem these troughs will be approaching on a trajectory from North of west. That would explain the lowish temperatures forecast; this direction won't be a heat maker. But it could mean more sunshine and fewer showers - especially on the south coast which can do pretty well on a north-westerly.

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3 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Im afraid im getting a sense of deja vu this evening.

Hoping for the best but expecting a bbc backtrack very soon.

Its the old chicken and egg but something is feeding this southerly tracking jet..

The solar minimum has much to do with this imo 

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Although still not massively significant last night's anomalies were still indicating some improvement in the ext period, mind difficult for there not to be given the weather of late. Signs of the weakening trough in the eastern Atlantic and the Atlantic on the whole becoming slightly positively anomalous albeit still with an upper but slightly weaker, W/NW upper flow  Thus the Azores still taking closer order but still centred to the south west so the usual N/S split indicated and the temps still no great shakes varying around the norm.

Meanwhile back on the farm. Tuesday finally just leaves the north with the remnants of the low pressure that has been afflicting us of late with weak transient ridging over the rest of the country, albeit with weak troughs floating around so still some showers in places.. At the same time the next complex structured low is on it's way east/nor east and by 00z Wednesday the fronts are just off south west Ireland

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Both the fronts and the low continue tracking NE over the next couple of days which ensures windy, showery weather for most interspersed with some longer periods of rain more likely in the west and north.

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The low continues on it's merry way leaving the the UK more or less in a col but the next upper trough has been creeping east and it's associated surface feature, a shallow low, is north west of Iberia by 00z Saturday. This tracks east and loses it's identity but it;s associated front(s) could well track far enough north to impact the north in a similar scenario to yesterday.

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Thereafter it's all a tad messy. There is some amplification of the Azores HP out west and and the upper trough in the vicinity of the UK disrupts leaving the eastern Atlantic in a very slack pressure gradient with weak ridging over the UK and low pressure to the south over western Europe. So essentially, apart from Weds-Friday, it's an improving picture but there are many ifs and buts about this and many changes are quite like still vis next weekend and later. And of course it's also just one gfs run.

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ECM looks poor again this morning-

96

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240

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So the 1st week of August beginning to look like a write off now, gfs slightly better but still falls into the poor category with winds from a west/north westly throughout FI..

 

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The ecm not dissimilar to the gfs up to Sunday although it does not disrupt the upper trough. But by Sunday it still has a strong jet running up the eastern seaboard and around the Azores ridging north in the western Atlantic and thus by 00z Monday the next trough is beginning ti impact N.I. and north west Scotland. Ergo on  Monday and Tuesday the UK again under the influence of low pressure but perhaps signs that the Azores is paying closer attention. The weekend looking better that previous runs but with the threat, a la gfs, of rain impacting the south on Saturday.

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Still looks dire to me, anything decent isn't getting closer, and it's gradually showing more low pressure dominance.....looking like summer 2017 is going to be the summer that started so well and promised so, so much.....but finished with your typical 2010s terrible August!

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