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Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017


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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    The ecm clears the low away to the east slightly quicker than the gfs and by 12z Monday the ridge is more or less in situ with showers lingering along the east coast in the NE flow, This remains the case until Thursday midnight whens fronts from the west traverse the country. But the difference between the end of this run is huge it really just highlights that the evolution beyond five or six days be treated with even more caution than usual. This applies to all models.

    ecm_t850a_5d_natl_11.thumb.png.0dd8a2abc82247000e25098865c601bd.png

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    An unseasonally wet, cool and windy day amidst an underwhelming week of weather does not a summer make. Much as anticipated through the second half of Spring, the hand-over to Summer sees the atm

    There have been some strange observations made today, as too often occurs in this thread whatever the time of year, and largely based on the usual knee-jerk response to longer term suggested NWP.

    You always seem to jump in on my posts, along with a few others. Why don't you try giving your assessment of the models instead of picking holes in others efforts!

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    I obliviously meant to say the difference between the end of this run and last evening is huge More care needed.

    Edited by knocker
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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    Any chance of the Brexit negotiations being like the recent model events? They squabble for days on end, reaching seemingly irreconcilable positions - and then suddenly, after one overnight meeting, they all come out on the same page.

    UW96-21.GIF?18-06  ECM1-96.GIF?18-12  gfs-0-96.png  gem-0-96.png?00

    Or maybe it wouldn't be such a good thing. Unless you're a duck, it looks like a "lose-lose" outcome, with a depression for the UK, a downturn in the weather for most and a negative outlook for rain on west facing coasts :( 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedworth
  • Weather Preferences: No Extremes Of Any Kind
  • Location: Bedworth
    10 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    Any chance of the Brexit negotiations being like the recent model events? They squabble for days on end, reaching seemingly irreconcilable positions - and then suddenly, after one overnight meeting, they all come out on the same page.

    UW96-21.GIF?18-06  ECM1-96.GIF?18-12  gfs-0-96.png  gem-0-96.png?00

    Or maybe it wouldn't be such a good thing. Unless you're a duck, it looks like a "lose-lose" outcome, with a depression for the UK, a downturn in the weather for most and a negative outlook for rain on west facing coasts :( 

     

    typical couldn't agree on decentish weather but when there's a chance of having cooler unsettled weather hey presto CONSENSUS

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    12 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    Any chance of the Brexit negotiations being like the recent model events? They squabble for days on end, reaching seemingly irreconcilable positions - and then suddenly, after one overnight meeting, they all come out on the same page.

    UW96-21.GIF?18-06  ECM1-96.GIF?18-12  gfs-0-96.png  gem-0-96.png?00

    Or maybe it wouldn't be such a good thing. Unless you're a duck, it looks like a "lose-lose" outcome, with a depression for the UK, a downturn in the weather for most and a negative outlook for rain on west facing coasts :( 

     

    Doesn't look bad, warm sunny spells and heavy showers with a risk of thunder!:)

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

    Doesn't look bad, warm sunny spells and heavy showers with a risk of thunder!:)

    Sorry Frosty, of course yes, there will be some sunshine, just didn't fit my attempt at being funny ;)

    But I fear that for many, the heavy showers will be more significant than the warm sunshine:

    114-574UK.GIF?18-0  arpegeuk-1-102-0.png?18-06  170718_0000_114.png

    Really quite cool in the north and west - this chart looks a little warmer in the SE but of course this is the GFS, which has the best outlook for that area.

    109-580UK-1H.GIF?18-0

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    7 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    Sorry Frosty, of course yes, there will be some sunshine, just didn't fit my attempt at being funny ;)

    But I fear that for many, the heavy showers will be more significant than the warm sunshine:

    114-574UK.GIF?18-0  arpegeuk-1-102-0.png?18-06  170718_0000_114.png

    Really quite cool in the north and west - this chart looks a little warmer in the SE but of course this is the GFS, which has the best outlook for that area.

    109-580UK-1H.GIF?18-0

    Well it's typical British summer weather really, par for the course.:D

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    I cant see anything other than a poor outlook this morning...esp further north one heads...

    Perhaps chance of a brief ridge early next week before another Atlantic low wings in.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    Suddenly it all appears nice and simple with the low drifting slowly but surely east Sat-Tue and then a bit of a ridge in from the west as Nina-like forcing wanes - but with not much sign yet that there will be enough forcing the other way to achieve more than a warm mostly dry south and cooler changeable north until at least next weekend.

    The 12z GFS last night seemed to find something much more, but it was clearly along way outside the curve (unless it was ahead of it instead... ha - that'd be the day!).

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    45 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    Sorry Frosty, of course yes, there will be some sunshine, just didn't fit my attempt at being funny ;)

    But I fear that for many, the heavy showers will be more significant than the warm sunshine:

    114-574UK.GIF?18-0  arpegeuk-1-102-0.png?18-06  170718_0000_114.png

    Really quite cool in the north and west - this chart looks a little warmer in the SE but of course this is the GFS, which has the best outlook for that area.

    109-580UK-1H.GIF?18-0

    If that temp chart verifies then that is really shocking for the peak of summer. 11-15c in the north? Dreadful. Even 17c here is about 5c below where it should be for late July.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    42 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    If that temp chart verifies then that is really shocking for the peak of summer. 11-15c in the north? Dreadful. Even 17c here is about 5c below where it should be for late July.

    Time for some more reverse psychology..great charts so far today. Bring it on!:D

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    Posted
  • Location: Evesham, Worcs, Albion
  • Location: Evesham, Worcs, Albion
    1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

    If that temp chart verifies then that is really shocking for the peak of summer. 11-15c in the north? Dreadful. Even 17c here is about 5c below where it should be for late July.

    I've never known a GFS temp chart to verify even at +3 hours .....

    But given there has only been one day here with below average maxima so far this month, I think it would actually make for quite a nice change :D

    Afrter all, we can't expect it to be warmer than average every day!

    (I appreciate that in some other parts of the country it's been a very different summer)

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    Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester

    6z isn't as bad as it looks with the trough pushing NE and allowing a ridge to build in from the west so I think next week could be East/West split with Western parts likely to be dry and Eastern parts showery. Meanwhile ECM has another dartboard waiting in the wings!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

    my concerns are for the longer term effect of this troublesome low. it cannot go anywhere fast as its locked in, and it might just get replenished by systems from the northwest thus prolonging its influence on the uk. some heat - haters might like this, but it could be a pattern change IF northern / central europe holds on to -ive pressure anomalies. we might have had a pretty good summer so far (away from the north lol) but theres nothing to say itll last into august - it certainly didnt in 2006 or 2013. on the other hand in '95 and '03 it saved the best until august.

    but the azores high has/is being no friend to heat lovers, if it wasnt for that retrogressing then this nasty little feature couldnt have formed (over us anyway) and current modeling doesnt suggest its in any hurry to return to a more favourable position , except in deep fi as ever...

    so i reckon the behaviour of this forthcoming feature will be the pivotal point of the summer? and will likely determine the pattern for the second half of summer.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    It appears the recently very promising signals for a generally very warm and settled extended outlook has gone for a burton. The latest update is about as bad as it gets in high summer with a predominantly rather cool broad west to north-westerly  changeable / unsettled atlantic pattern becoming established but there are some short- lived settled and warmer interludes expected too, the occasionally warmer conditions mainly further s / e.. I haven't given up but even I can't sugar coat the outlook as it stands. 

    Edited by Frosty.
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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    15 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

    It appears the recently very promising signals for a generally very warm and settled extended outlook has gone for a burton. The latest update is about as bad as it gets in high summer with a predominantly rather cool broad west to north-westerly  changeable / unsettled atlantic pattern becoming established but there are some short- lived settled and warmer interludes expected too, the occasionally warmer conditions mainly further s / e.. I haven't given up but even I can't sugar coat the outlook as it stands. 

    another crap august then on the cards?....

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    11 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

    another crap august then on the cards?....

    I don't know mushy, just saying what the pros currently think..It could become a locked in trough dominated pattern with a north-west / south-east aligned jet unfortunately but it won't stop me looking for better signs in the days / weeks ahead.:)

    Edited by Frosty.
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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

    I don't know mushy, just saying what the pros currently think..It could become a locked in trough dominated pattern with a north-west / south-east aligned jet unfortunately but it won't stop me looking for better signs in the days / weeks ahead.:)

    well this is my concern with this troublesome anticyclone, pattern changer. im not ready to give up heat just yet even though we have enjoyed quite a lot.

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

    It appears the recently very promising signals for a generally very warm and settled extended outlook has gone for a burton. The latest update is about as bad as it gets in high summer with a predominantly rather cool broad west to north-westerly  changeable / unsettled atlantic pattern becoming established but there are some short- lived settled and warmer interludes expected too, the occasionally warmer conditions mainly further s / e.. I haven't given up but even I can't sugar coat the outlook as it stands. 

    I really do think these meto updates can be 24 hours behind the game. If I was reading that update yesterday, I wouldn't be surprised but the trend on the models so far today has been to show the azores high ever so slightly edging in a little more into the west of the UK next week  than they were generally showing yesterday bar the zany gfs 12z run. I expect this trend to continue on the remaining model runs today and tomorrow's meto update to be a little more positive as a result. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

    Remember guys there is a thread for Met O. outlook discussions.let's keep to our own views of the models in here,ta.:)

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    Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
    34 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

    well this is my concern with this troublesome anticyclone, pattern changer. im not ready to give up heat just yet even though we have enjoyed quite a lot.

    The EC 32 is showing the high staying to the west and a trough to our east so I expect the updates are reflecting that even though there's room for movement to benefit us. From a link Knocker put in the ENSO thread, I see one of the tropical weather people suggesting there might be a storm generating period in the Atlantic for early August: coming up to the time of year when a single strong storm can shift the pattern quite a bit.

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    3 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

    The EC 32 is showing the high staying to the west and a trough to our east so I expect the updates are reflecting that even though there's room for movement to benefit us. From a link Knocker put in the ENSO thread, I see one of the tropical weather people suggesting there might be a storm generating period in the Atlantic for early August: coming up to the time of year when a single strong storm can shift the pattern quite a bit.

    Funny that! The ECM 32 showed a similar scenario during the whole of last winter. Caused much despair on here when it never came to fruition. Sods law would dictate that it will this summer. 

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    Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester

    12z is very much improved next week compared to the recent horror charts. Azores finally winning out the weather next week. Still 7 days away so expect further improvements or more major misery

     

    dry.png

    nh.png

    Edited by 40*C
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    The Gfs 12z shows some usable weather next week with plenty of fine and pleasantly warm conditions with temperatures into the low 20's celsius.

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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    Rukm1441.gif  Rtavn1441.gif

    UKMO 12z ends up uncannily similar to some of the charts that were cropping up prior to this week's extended fine spell that never was and GFS is not that far away from that - just a bit flatter with the Atlantic jet which is handy in the mid-range but potentially less so in the longer.

    This output is following an AAM climb that has gained some magnitude in the GEFS projections over the past few days which begs the question - are the models overreacting to such trends for the second time running?

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