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Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017


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15 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

And a swing to less settled from the NOAA too. I must admit, I shed a tear when I saw it

814day.03.gif  814hghts.20170712.fcst.gif

Good news, though, the ECM mean at for 23rd July is exactly where it has been for days, which is for pretty overwhelming for settled weather. I believe the ECM mean is still the best verifying chart at D10?

EDM1-240.GIF?13-0

 

Models dealing with tricky evolution at present, in such circumstances det. better placed to work things out - hence why I only glanced at the EPS tonight. 

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An unseasonally wet, cool and windy day amidst an underwhelming week of weather does not a summer make. Much as anticipated through the second half of Spring, the hand-over to Summer sees the atm

There have been some strange observations made today, as too often occurs in this thread whatever the time of year, and largely based on the usual knee-jerk response to longer term suggested NWP.

You always seem to jump in on my posts, along with a few others. Why don't you try giving your assessment of the models instead of picking holes in others efforts!

Posted Images

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Just to really get on peoples nerves :p here is a comparison between the sort of model consensus output we were looking at yesterday morning for noon Monday 17th, and that which we have now, in which we can see how little has actually changed at this timeframe.

Yep - there's just been a bit more of a kink added to the jet stream over S. Greenland as a shortwave trough makes itself known. This brings the jet closer to the low tracking just N. of the Azores and so that feature finds itself with some upper level divergence to work with. This causes pressure to lower between it and the shortwave trough, establishing a connection that leads to a merger of the two features. Because one was so far north and the other so far south, very cool air clashes with very warm, generating a fairly vigorous trough (though worth noting these that occur with steep thermal gradients are often overdone by the operational models until at a few day's range).

UKMO is the only model offering a 12z run that avoids this interaction, with much shallower lows and so much less of a pull of cool air from the NW toward the UK. 

In the grand scheme of things, cool air and showery weather making its way over for one or two days before what remains a strong impetus to settle things down by Friday evening does not seem too bad, and for the south it really isn't, but those up north are bound to find this a frustrating interruption to the long-advertised improving trend for mid-late July given the lack of much fine weather in recent weeks. I do feel that 9 times out of 10 we'd not have had at least one of the two troublemakers out to our west early next week and things would be looking to go much smoother, so this really is a harsh deal of the cards.

The best I can offer regarding the middle part of next week is that GLAAM trends are positive enough at this point in time, and ensemble guidance spread-out enough, to give at least some hope that the combined trough - however deep it ends up being and presuming it does form in the first place - won't move so close to our shores as some of this evening's output is suggesting, so reducing the duration of cooler and showery conditions.

Oh and you never know, we might get a good light show on Tuesday or Wednesday night!

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2 hours ago, Frosty. said:

So far so good on Ecm 12z:D

96_mslp500.png

 

120_mslp850.png

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 Much more realistic Ecm

Its pretty much in line with the bigger models and UK model I'd take the ukmo Outlook over the Gfs any day. 

Gfs has been woeful for some time. 

Long range wise Gfs is not top but short term performance is OK but anything beyond t96 I use UK model and most definitely the Ecm

And the daily express model by far the best of all lol

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23 minutes ago, Tamara said:

I don't think there has been over optimism. Speaking for myself, and as posted on here, an improving scenario has been reasonable to anticipate heading from mid month to the last third and the models have followed accordingly till today. Let alone the average 'amateur' many professional agencies including the Meto have consistently agreed with this.

 

Personally I'm guilty as charged! I was too prepared to hedge my bets that the downtick in the 500mb chart over the UK wouldn't led to anything significant. In hindsight, of course they highlighted the possibility of a trough moving close by.

But I do absolutely agree that obituaries have been written too soon. There are probably three or four mini-lows all travelling around the Atlantic to the west of us next week, goodness knows how they will all interact, I'm not even convinced this trough for next week will be as significant as modelled today. And the biggie for me is that I've seen heights above Iceland overdone time and again when there's a cut-off low - it's only this strip of heights that's putting the D8-D14 settled period into question. 

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29 minutes ago, Tamara said:

I don't think there has been over optimism. Speaking for myself, and as posted on here, an improving scenario has been reasonable to anticipate heading from mid month to the last third and the models have followed accordingly till today. Let alone the average 'amateur' many professional agencies including the Meto have consistently agreed with this.

 With that in mind, I think its also wise not to write obituaries prematurely. There has been quite a stand-off between the dynamical models in terms of the tropics and evolution of convection forcing and this still isn't clear.

The GFS has concentrated on retaining a weak Indian Ocean signal and the ECM a forward eastward progression. Eastward progression, as you imply, with added westerly winds to the atmospheric circulation means that atmospheric angular momentum is supported upwards and this helps the pattern downstream in terms of the dual between the troughing axis bleeding from the Canadian vortex and the northward displaced Azores High.

Lower momentum plays to the +AO feedback being diminished and this assists the Azores ridge drawn westward and amplifying to the west accordingly - which means warm air advection occurring the 'wrong' side of the UK and allowing the upper trough to drop SE ahead if it. Or, with higher momentum, the pattern upstream becomes more conducive for the Azores High to head eastward as the Jetstream is angled more SW-NE and troughs tend to remain more intact across the NE Atlantic. In this way, a contasting pattern appears to the lower momentum scenario with the high thickness levels of the sub tropical high flooding further northwards. Such as modelled up till today

I agree that tropical easterlies, or La Nina forcing, continues to be stubborn (against the backdrop of ENSO neutral) but the persistent propensity for cut-off lows in a difficult to model Atlantic and the fine line between upstream forcing c/o the tropics is to close to call in terms of the outlook and means a heck of a difference between Atlantic ridge/downstream trough and Atlantic trough/Western European ridge 

So one word could sum up UK prospects for mid summer - lottery! 

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Going by the EPS I for one am not too worried regarding the probability of a warmer and settled spell after the amplification spurt and the transient Atlantic troughing next week  down in part to the active Canadian vortex lobe. Towards the end of the run this reorientates and the Azores is once more 'allowed' to ridge north east settling matters down over the UK. Again how successful this is remains the key question as it does not want to reside too far west, although of course that would create other possibilities. This continues in the ext period although towards the end it the flow does become more zonal and thus perhaps tending back down a tad as more changeable weather ensues.

ecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.thumb.png.06370503e526ebe0e89dab3b846d353f.pngecm_eps_z500a_nh_11.thumb.png.2117678b9219d6a32091c8da47e8b4a3.pngecm_eps_t850a_5d_nh_11.thumb.png.f1ca2808267d1e0682680e435ec77017.png

 

Edited by knocker
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9 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

So one word could sum up UK prospects for mid summer - lottery! 

Not quite?? I've always thought that this summer will be warmer than average; and, I'm yet to see anything that'll change my mind...

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1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

And a swing to less settled from the NOAA too. I must admit, I shed a tear when I saw it

814day.03.gif  814hghts.20170712.fcst.gif

Good news, though, the ECM mean at for 23rd July is exactly where it has been for days, which is for pretty overwhelming for settled weather. I believe the ECM mean is still the best verifying chart at D10?

 

A really cannot see that much difference between the 6-10 tonight and that from last night that I posted this morning?

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We'll get there - lots of support and signal at the moment for the Azores to settle for a while, its a slow annoying process but it'll come. Good things always come to those who wait :) 

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12 minutes ago, 40*C said:

We'll get there - lots of support and signal at the moment for the Azores to settle for a while, its a slow annoying process but it'll come. Good things always come to those who wait :) 

18z isnt reading the script..

Just about ok if your in the south,north of Birmingham its abysmal with the Atlantic refusing to give us a break.

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I feel physically sick after watching the GFS0z - you really couldnt make it up, we end up under a cold wet trough for days and days..UKMO looks very similar by 144 just to rub salt in the wounds.

An absolute joke of a climate.

Looks like the meto warm settled spell is fast going down the kazi, typical really, when the charts look good for either winter cold or summer heat and they go against the charts they often call it right, looks like for all the best will in the world we get shafted, time after time.

Just hurry up and emigrate, i really need to...:-(

Edited by northwestsnow
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I'm sure those who don't particularly like the heat will be celebrating the UKMO output this morning...a far cry from what was being shown for next week only a few days ago...interestingly though,  pretty much what gfs has been showing for a few days now and getting slaughtered for doing so...

 

 

Rukm1441-4.gif

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Until I see some corroborating evidence I'm not. for the moment, taking this morning's gfs run at face value as it is certainly bucking the trend as indicated by the EPS last night and this morning. We shall see but in the meantime a glance at the horror show.

Tuesday follows previous runs with the new upper low spawned by the Canadian vortex lob situated between Greenland and Iceland with associated trough running south to Iberia. The surface fronts about 400km west of Ireland with the UK still under the benign influence of the HP and the shallow low to the south in the Bay of Biscay.

gfs_z500a_nh_19.thumb.png.2c9e6f7249525616628352a90a1ce21f.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_19.thumb.png.df957ddf07d64ec717f495276169a743.png

In the next 24 hours the fronts edge east and the shallow low north to phase together forming a general area of low pressure covering the UK all the way north west to Iceland. This means quite a wet day for most as the rain belt moves north.

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_23.thumb.png.0fee1f1cb6063cda389fcf55d11e317c.png

This is where it starts going off piste. With the HP to the east continuing to ridge north over Scandinavia the upper low intensifies and tracks SE to be north west of Scotland by 12z Thursday which initiates a very bleak surface analysis with an intense low over Ireland, 987mb, by Friday.evening and gales and very wet weather to the UK. I'm going to leave it here because this is a week away and this could all so easily go completely differently.

gfs_z500a_nh_27.thumb.png.a3405f5a92f78957a570907270095700.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_32.thumb.png.88accd9a023f666e273cb0db408c0f96.png

Having said that the GEFS anomaly is not disagreeing with the general thrust of this but is completely at odds with the EPS so we shall see

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_47.thumb.png.42e07fc340ef87393fbc615f90ca4e6d.png

 

Edited by knocker
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GEFS 00z look dreadful for manchester...so although the op was one of the poorer runs it has plenty of support for the trough scenario.

Hoping for a change of fortunes but just as in winter when looking for cold, once the wheels fall off boy do they fall off...

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Just now, northwestsnow said:

GEFS 00z look dreadful for manchester...so although the op was one of the poorer runs it has plenty of support for the trough scenario.

Hoping for a change of fortunes but just as in winter when looking for cold, once the wheels fall off boy do they fall off...

I was just ranting to my wife about our climate. You couldnt make it up considering where we looked to be heading.

Unfortunately all models have picked up on a decline in conditions wednesday onwards. Although this mornings are even worse, the dreaded trapped summer low.

I used to welcome plumes but i would take 22c with sunny spells for the next 2 weeks if it was offered now. Cloudy in my location today and predicted all weekend, poor, really.

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6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GEFS 00z look dreadful for manchester...so although the op was one of the poorer runs it has plenty of support for the trough scenario.

 

Manchester is world famous for its dreadful weather, at least it looks better for the south / south-east.:D

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Just now, Frosty. said:

Manchester is world famous for its dreadful weather, at least it looks better for the south / south-east.:D

True mate.Im just fed up of our turgid climate, we hardly get a winter anymore and the odd one aside summers are getting wetter and wetter.

Im really considering emigrating Karl, i know there are more important things than the weather but its really getting me down, i mean, its grey wet and miserable this morning, it looks and feels like oct/ nov..:-(

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10 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

And a swing to less settled from the NOAA too. I must admit, I shed a tear when I saw it

814day.03.gif  814hghts.20170712.fcst.gif

Good news, though, the ECM mean at for 23rd July is exactly where it has been for days, which is for pretty overwhelming for settled weather. I believe the ECM mean is still the best verifying chart at D10?

EDM1-240.GIF?13-0

surely such an abrupt change means that reliability is low , theres no consecutive agreement yet.

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1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

I feel physically sick after watching the GFS0z - you really couldnt make it up, we end up under a cold wet trough for days and days..UKMO looks very similar by 144 just to rub salt in the wounds.

An absolute joke of a climate.

Looks like the meto warm settled spell is fast going down the kazi, typical really, when the charts look good for either winter cold or summer heat and they go against the charts they often call it right, looks like for all the best will in the world we get shafted, time after time.

Just hurry up and emigrate, i really need to...:-(

Emotional post of pure disappointment but I'd be very inclined to say hold on for few more runs yet. 

Theres bound to be some minor blips in summer. 

And from being a weather nut and on this site since 2009 I can safely say that I'd hold judgement on the ukmo long-range, 

Not because the Gfs don't show a scorcher. 

Its a model that's extremely progressive and often not as accurate after t96. 

More runs needed. 

I'm sure over the weekend we will see lows zipping across to North of UK. 

But with heights rising in Scandinavia anything is possible southeasterly flow or easterly could well feature, 

So warming up but with instability thunder to. 

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1 minute ago, Paceyboy said:

At least this mornings ECM doesnt agree with the GFS trapped low Wednesday to Sunday.!

Ecm is better than ukmo/gfs.

Trouble is ecm isnt as reliable as some think and my general rule of thumb is the worst looking runs usually come off...

 

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Well its bed time for me after nightshift but the ECM is good, really good as the trough lifts out quickly and the azores high ridges in nicely.

Hoping its correct, if it was up against gfs id feel optimistic but ukmo is absolutely in the gfs camp....

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2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well its bed time for me after nightshift but the ECM is good, really good as the trough lifts out quickly and the azores high ridges in nicely.

Hoping its correct, if it was up against gfs id feel optimistic but ukmo is absolutely in the gfs camp....

How do you know about UKMO? Have you seen it out to 216 hrs?

I think the GFS is really the worst case scenario and I can't imagine it will end up that bad- it's most people's worst nightmare after the dream charts of a few days ago. Cruel.

Thankfully the ECM looks a LOT better and shows the trough next week as being transitory.

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