Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017

[Ice Man 85]

1 minute ago, 40*C said:

You live in Skelmersdale overlooking the fresh and cool Atlantic so how does SE affect you?

Because it was still around 32 even in my area. The text shows NW examples. Not just SE.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

oh dear what a mess...

[Ice Man 85]

1 minute ago, 40*C said:

oh dear what a mess...

Now thats more like it.

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

I'm not celebrating a short hot spell yet Frosty although I hope it will come , Ukmo not in agreement although no disaster further south , so let's hope the  ECM  is on side .

 

Agreed mark, just discussing the potential at this stage..interesting at least

[mb018538]

Wouldn't worry too much about that - GFS op is a big wet outlier at the end, and also the coldest run. I think it's safe to say if we have no idea of the weather in a weeks time, 15 days is a lottery.

[A Frayed Knot]

So what do many of you think about this ' will it or won't it happen ? http://extremeweather.co/2017/06/july-heatwave-could-see-38-5c-hottest-ever-day-record-broken-warn-forecasters/

[mb018538]

9 minutes ago, A Frayed Knot said:

So what do many of you think about this ' will it or won't it happen ? http://extremeweather.co/2017/06/july-heatwave-could-see-38-5c-hottest-ever-day-record-broken-warn-forecasters/

Not strictly model related - but there's nothing to suggest this at present. The MetO have consistently forecast a more settled and warm middle to late July, but nothing at present suggests temperatures in the mid to high thirties. Far too long in the distance!

[Frosty.]

6 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Not strictly model related - but there's nothing to suggest this at present. The MetO have consistently forecast a more settled and warm middle to late July, but nothing at present suggests temperatures in the mid to high thirties. Far too long in the distance!

Agreed, I would like to borrow the crystal ball they are using..perhaps mystic meg / James Madden at Exacta weather have got together to produce this!

[Mark wheeler]

Ecm coming out ,

Looks to my untrained eye to be inbetween the others at this time perhaps the low over Spain a tad further north on the gfs  , happy to be corrected .

Others  for comparison,

 

Edited July 2, 2017 by Mark wheeler

[I remember Atlantic 252]

looks like to be a wed/thur heat spike, common setting last few summers, Fresher from the west on friday

[Ice Man 85]

Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

looks like to be a wed/thur heat spike, common setting last few summers, Fresher from the west on friday

Anyone with a weatherboffin-noob dictionary want to tell me what temps those colour gradients represent?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, Ice Man 85 said:

Anyone with a weatherboffin-noob dictionary want to tell me what temps those colour gradients represent?

would guess on this, 30° possible in SE, Wed heat spikes common, happened Wimbledon '15

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z shows an increasingly warm spell through the week, becoming very warm and humid in the south..Dare I say..hot in the s / se the charts later in the week indicate thunderstorm potential..any decent sunshine would really boost the temperatures so potentially hot for a time further s / se..especially thursday.

Edited July 2, 2017 by Frosty.

[mb018538]

Wednesday or a Thursday should see somewhere at least breaching 80f, with an outside chance of an odd 30c turning up somewhere. Looks like breaking down Friday, before we are all back into the more unsettled regime for the weekend. Best of the conditions in the SE, closer to the high.

[ANYWEATHER]

1 hour ago, A Frayed Knot said:

So what do many of you think about this ' will it or won't it happen ? http://extremeweather.co/2017/06/july-heatwave-could-see-38-5c-hottest-ever-day-record-broken-warn-forecasters/

Another instance of sensational media hype......When will it ever end ???  Answer=   When no one reads or listens to the tosh

[Snowy L]

If Met Office's warm and settled 2nd half of july is going to happen we need to start seeing signs of at least the building blocks in current FI charts. No signs at the moment.

[Singularity]

Something to take into account at the mo is some extreme disagreement among models with respect to the MJO; GFS has a (wacky looking) big phase 1 emerging over the next week or so, yet ECM has a phase 2/3 spike (with big impact on some recent runs; today's 12z the best example yet of phase 2 Scandi trough response), while other models generally show little activity one way or the other.

I advise paying little attention to what's currently been shown for beyond next weekend.

[mb018538]

24 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Something to take into account at the mo is some extreme disagreement among models with respect to the MJO; GFS has a (wacky looking) big phase 1 emerging over the next week or so, yet ECM has a phase 2/3 spike (with big impact on some recent runs; today's 12z the best example yet of phase 2 Scandi trough response), while other models generally show little activity one way or the other.

I advise paying little attention to what's currently been shown for beyond next weekend.

I would tend to agree - much model chaos at longer range at the moment. The 00z and 12z ECM longer range charts vary so much that you can't do much except brush them to one side!

[Scorcher]

The Countryfile forecast was a bit disappointing in all honesty, especially for areas further north. Even for the south it seems the BBC are expecting a lot of cloud and some outbreaks of rain, particularly later in the week.

The UKMO is definitely the most pessimistic of the models for later in the week which has probably influenced this view.

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean is on the same page as the operational with a warm up through the week ahead, especially for the south where it looks like becoming very warm and humid for a time. I think temperatures across the s / se will reach the low 80's F later in the week. I would expect some sunshine and variable cloud amounts with an increasing thunderstorm risk for southern uk between thurs / sat. 

[Mark wheeler]

2nd attempt , 18z looking to extend the warm up.

 

[Man With Beard]

Stop press: The GFS and ECM keep the cut-off low cut-off!! Meaning the heat stays to its north i.e. the UK. Wednesday to Saturday all looking hot now

[Gordon Webb]

9 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Stop press: The GFS and ECM keep the cut-off low cut-off!! Meaning the heat stays to its north i.e. the UK. Wednesday to Saturday all looking hot now

is this referring to all of the UK or just the usual suspects

[mb018538]

17 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

is this referring to all of the UK or just the usual suspects

Highest temps more south focused as usual, but still warm quite far north:



Also depends which model is right....the all vary on the amount of heat to tap into. GFS is warmest, thus shows the highest temps for longer.

[Frosty.]

Hotting up for the south on this morning's Ecm 00z with high 20's to low 30's celsius later this week and becoming more humid. Most of England and Wales becomes very warm..I would expect sunny spells with an increasing risk of thunderstorms after midweek with torrential downpours mixed with very warm sunshine.

Edited July 3, 2017 by Frosty.