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Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017


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An unseasonally wet, cool and windy day amidst an underwhelming week of weather does not a summer make. Much as anticipated through the second half of Spring, the hand-over to Summer sees the atm

There have been some strange observations made today, as too often occurs in this thread whatever the time of year, and largely based on the usual knee-jerk response to longer term suggested NWP.

You always seem to jump in on my posts, along with a few others. Why don't you try giving your assessment of the models instead of picking holes in others efforts!

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Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester
    1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

    ok, i might be out with the timing, granted, but i would be extremely suprised if we didnt get more heat. i cannot think of a june hot spell (2 in fact) that didnt lead to something hotter/longer further down the line. so IF this is all we get, which is possible, itll be rather unusual.

    It would be interesting to have seen what the models were suggesting in the first opening days of the 1976 saga?  But computer tech wasn't as advanced as today so doubt we'll ever see outlier charts from 1976.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
    2 minutes ago, Interitus said:

    Not just high temperatures, look at these dew points, tropical values in some places

    36-101UK.thumb.gif.78480b6d0ed794a3d3762091dfe6181e.gif

     

     

    Good spot - didn't even think about dew point! Certainly looks very humid tomorrow.

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    Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester

    Very cool and unsettled outlook coming up from next week on gfs ensembles, very refreshing and deserved for some but I hope Its not going to turn into something on the 2012 scale considering how ENSO neutral things are.

    I'm straw clutching at the moment, a long run of hot days in June have always lead to brilliant if not excellent summers and they seem to come every 20 years or so with drought....  1955, 1976, 1995 ,  2017?? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset

    Considering this is the model output and not the 'now' conditions, I have to say the change in pattern from this weekend is extremely disappointing with wind, rain and much cooler weather to dominate for the next 2 weeks. Cant believe how things could turn so quickly given the sensational weather of late. Extremely disappointing for the next 2 weeks of summer with some disturbed weather at time and an extremely southerly tracking jet stream. Havent looked at the charts for several days whilst ive enjoyed the weather but annoyed I did now because it has effectively ruined tomorrow's heat knowing what's to come around the corner shortly..

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    Worth remembering that not very far north it's not sweltering. (lucky people). The Nottingham midday sounding indicates some quite thick low level Ci, and some lower level stuff, and some cooler air in the boundary layer. Thus 850mb temp of 13.4C and a surface of 17.0C with a 3C inversion. The cloud confirmed by the h/s Modis at 1300z courtesy Dundee Satellite Station.

    2017062012.03354.skewt_parc.thumb.gif.814a490b18382781e34ff645b3a02f64.gifch38.thumb.jpg.2d73636363ffd0c40731ef863c812871.jpg

    Edited by knocker
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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
    34 minutes ago, 40*C said:

    Very cool and unsettled outlook coming up from next week on gfs ensembles, very refreshing and deserved for some but I hope Its not going to turn into something on the 2012 scale considering how ENSO neutral things are.

    I'm straw clutching at the moment, a long run of hot days in June have always lead to brilliant if not excellent summers and they seem to come every 20 years or so with drought....  1955, 1976, 1995 ,  2017?? 

    2003 and 2006 as well. 

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
    26 minutes ago, knocker said:

    Worth remembering that not very far north it's not sweltering. (lucky people). The Nottingham midday sounding indicates some quite thick low level Ci, and some lower level stuff, and some cooler air in the boundary layer. Thus 850mb temp of 13.4C and a surface of 17.0C with a 3C inversion. The cloud confirmed by the h/s Modis at 1300z courtesy Dundee Satellite Station.

    2017062012.03354.skewt_parc.thumb.gif.814a490b18382781e34ff645b3a02f64.gifch38.thumb.jpg.2d73636363ffd0c40731ef863c812871.jpg

    confirmed by me here in so called sunny donny; brief glimpses of the sun this afternoon only otherwise mostly overcast with a high so far of 21.4 C compared to 33.8 C in my garden yesterday!

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    GEM is closer to what the met office think will happen tomorrow they are saying 34c in the London area GEM says 33c

    DCxuOGoW0AAau2p.thumb.jpg.d081498a17a89284adf7c2e9f6f461f1.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    06_123_250mbjet.png?cb=648 12_123_250mbjet.png?cb=648

    12z has the jet stream dipping south in the mid-Atlantic much more sharply as of Sunday afternoon than was the case on the previous few (or probably more) runs.

    This could have interesting results over the following few days given the setup over Europe;

    12_126_mslp850.png?cb=648

    At least there's something of interest to keep an eye on while my brain slowly stews :laugh:

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    Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent

    UKMO shows a ridge sneaking in at T144. The writing off of the next 2 weeks is way too premature imo, the unsettled weather is very likely up until Sunday then after that it's far more uncertain. I do think it's more likely to be unsettled than not but to outright say guaranteed unsettled for the next 2 weeks is wrong.

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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    12_171_mslp850.png?cb=648 12_171_250mbjet.png?cb=648

    I guess you can't stop GFS being GFS :doh:

    Whenever I see the jet stream modelled to become that flat over such a great distance outside of the winter season, I become very skeptical indeed.

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
    6 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

    UKMO shows a ridge sneaking in at T144. The writing off of the next 2 weeks is way too premature imo, the unsettled weather is very likely up until Sunday then after that it's far more uncertain. I do think it's more likely to be unsettled than not but to outright say guaranteed unsettled for the next 2 weeks is wrong.

    This smacks of bulverism. Has anyone actually stated unsettled for the next two weeks is guaranteed.

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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
    Just now, knocker said:

    May I ask why?

    In my experience there nearly always ends up being something or other complicating matters; smaller disturbances in the flow, that sort of thing - although exceptions can and do occur.

    I am skeptical of the likelihood - but not the possibility. Maybe a deep trough will indeed march its way across from the western N. Atlantic, which would be another notable event to add to June 2017's list. From unusually wet (up north) and windy to exceptionally hot and then back - at least briefly - to unusually wet and windy?

    Personally I'd enjoy the variation of weather, but I'm a bit odd when all's said and done :laugh:

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    14 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

    UKMO shows a ridge sneaking in at T144. The writing off of the next 2 weeks is way too premature imo, the unsettled weather is very likely up until Sunday then after that it's far more uncertain. I do think it's more likely to be unsettled than not but to outright say guaranteed unsettled for the next 2 weeks is wrong.

    depends on what you call a guarantee... id have thought its as good as certain that we are entering an unsettled westerly pattern, not 100% but id be shocked if every model suite got it that wrong.

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    1 hour ago, knocker said:

    Worth remembering that not very far north it's not sweltering. (lucky people). The Nottingham midday sounding indicates some quite thick low level Ci, and some lower level stuff, and some cooler air in the boundary layer. Thus 850mb temp of 13.4C and a surface of 17.0C with a 3C inversion. The cloud confirmed by the h/s Modis at 1300z courtesy Dundee Satellite Station.

    2017062012.03354.skewt_parc.thumb.gif.814a490b18382781e34ff645b3a02f64.gifch38.thumb.jpg.2d73636363ffd0c40731ef863c812871.jpg

    im under that muck.... not impressed.

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    Posted
  • Location: leeds
  • Location: leeds

    what I find fascinating is the charts are showing average temperatures apart from the odd day.. And yet some people are looking for a sign of a heatwave and then getting disappointed. The average  temperature for  late  June early July is totally acceptable over all..We have seen in the past struggling to get above  15/16c in parts of the country at this  time of year..All in all 2017  is looking good? or am  I wrong?

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
    10 minutes ago, Singularity said:

    In my experience there nearly always ends up being something or other complicating matters; smaller disturbances in the flow, that sort of thing - although exceptions can and do occur.

    I am skeptical of the likelihood - but not the possibility. Maybe a deep trough will indeed march its way across from the western N. Atlantic, which would be another notable event to add to June 2017's list. From unusually wet (up north) and windy to exceptionally hot and then back - at least briefly - to unusually wet and windy?

    Personally I'd enjoy the variation of weather, but I'm a bit odd when all's said and done :laugh:

    Okay I'll accept that you are bit odd :closedeyes: but you only have to look back 24 hours and you can spot a small disturbance in the flow :shok: And some of these jet stream charts are pretty crudely drawn. A 250mb or 300 wind field is better.

    gfs_uv250_natl_25.thumb.png.22b6a01de33c5199af19f5840a35ee25.png

    Edited by knocker
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Tomorrow is the pinnacle of this current hot spell down south and a record breaking day..34c 93f is hotly tipped and also the fifth consecutive day of 30c + in the south equalling 1995..whatever happens in the remainder of June this month will be memorable for its very summery weather..by me at least!:D

    DCx67jqWsAAbM6e.jpg

    DCxssHJWsAAA4EU.jpg

    Edited by Frosty.
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    Posted
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset
    11 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

    Tomorrow is the pinnacle of this current hot spell down south and a record breaking day..34c 93f is hotly tipped and also the fifth consecutive day of 30c + in the south equalling 1995..whatever happens in the remainder of June this month will be memorable for its very summery weather..by me at least!:D

    DCx67jqWsAAbM6e.jpg

    DCxssHJWsAAA4EU.jpg

    Yes...well tomorrow could well be the best day of the entire summer. Even if we do get temps again upwards of the 30s, it's not going to be for a considerable time and considering tomorrow is the longest day, afterwards the nights will slowly start closing in. So enjoy tomorrow, before the dross sets in from the weekend and lasting as far as one can see. This will no doubt be the best spell of the summer in context of heat and also day length. Enjoy

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
    16 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

    Tomorrow is the pinnacle of this current hot spell down south and a record breaking day..34c 93f is hotly tipped and also the fifth consecutive day of 30c + in the south equalling 1995..whatever happens in the remainder of June this month will be memorable for its very summery weather..by me at least!:D

    DCx67jqWsAAbM6e.jpg

    DCxssHJWsAAA4EU.jpg

    Cool and cloudy all day in Wakefield Frosty. Bet you enjoyed that. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    1 minute ago, SizzlingHeat said:

     This will no doubt be the best spell of the summer in context of heat and also day length. Enjoy

    It's premature to say this will be the best spell of the summer, there could easily be an even hotter spell during July / August which have the best potential for scorching weather..in terms of day length..I fully agree:D

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