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Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017


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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    It looks like the hottest air will be starting to move away during Friday

    UW96-7.thumb.GIF.142a879421135af33f8fc998568e7592.GIF

    This then takes us into a fresher weekend

    UW120-7.thumb.GIF.bd47bf804a2b0df97a4a9aed421eb932.GIFUW144-7.thumb.GIF.a3e25b6799e654386a9934254dec027f.GIF

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    An unseasonally wet, cool and windy day amidst an underwhelming week of weather does not a summer make. Much as anticipated through the second half of Spring, the hand-over to Summer sees the atm

    There have been some strange observations made today, as too often occurs in this thread whatever the time of year, and largely based on the usual knee-jerk response to longer term suggested NWP.

    You always seem to jump in on my posts, along with a few others. Why don't you try giving your assessment of the models instead of picking holes in others efforts!

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Starting to turn much more unsettled through the weekend. Not much rainfall to start with, but the ensembles paint a much more typical sunshine and showers pattern into next week:

    gefsens850london0.png

    On the face of it, the Northern Hemisphere pressure profile doesn't look too bad:

    Recmnh2401.gif

    No northern blocking forecast to materialise on the ECM, so hopefully the unsettled phase won't last too long, and pressure can rebuild into July.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedworth
  • Weather Preferences: No Extremes Of Any Kind
  • Location: Bedworth
    32 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    It looks like the hottest air will be starting to move away during Friday

    UW96-7.thumb.GIF.142a879421135af33f8fc998568e7592.GIF

    This then takes us into a fresher weekend

    UW120-7.thumb.GIF.bd47bf804a2b0df97a4a9aed421eb932.GIFUW144-7.thumb.GIF.a3e25b6799e654386a9934254dec027f.GIF

    the first chart means that thursday is the changeover day temp wise for most with possibly the SE been the exception if i'm reading the chart correctly , still that's a good 10 days of nice weather if admittledly a little too hot for me

    Edited by Gordon Webb
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Plenty of hot sunny weather to enjoy this week, especially further south according to the Ecm 00z..superb weather!

    0_mslp850uk.png

    24_mslp850uk.png

    48_mslp850uk.png

    72_mslp850uk.png

    96_mslp850uk.png

    Edited by Frosty.
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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    8 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    Starting to turn much more unsettled through the weekend. Not much rainfall to start with, but the ensembles paint a much more typical sunshine and showers pattern into next week:

    gefsens850london0.png

    On the face of it, the Northern Hemisphere pressure profile doesn't look too bad:

    Recmnh2401.gif

    No northern blocking forecast to materialise on the ECM, so hopefully the unsettled phase won't last too long, and pressure can rebuild into July.

    The ensembles confirm Wednesday now looking like the peak of the heat, and I wouldn't discount 33C, 34C or 35C on that day.

    A second wave of heat next week not completely off the table but looking less likely today.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
    8 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    Starting to turn much more unsettled through the weekend. Not much rainfall to start with, but the ensembles paint a much more typical sunshine and showers pattern into next week:

    gefsens850london0.png

    On the face of it, the Northern Hemisphere pressure profile doesn't look too bad:

    Recmnh2401.gif

    No northern blocking forecast to materialise on the ECM, so hopefully the unsettled phase won't last too long, and pressure can rebuild into July.

    Euro ensembles develop enhanced easterlies across the eastern Pacific so what we are likely seeing is that feeding into a Nina like response. It's possibly in response to enhanced vorcity and lower than average pressure over the Atlantic.

    Whether that is correct or lasts long is unknown. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedworth
  • Weather Preferences: No Extremes Of Any Kind
  • Location: Bedworth
    1 minute ago, summer blizzard said:

    Euro ensembles develop enhanced easterlies across the eastern Pacific so what we are likely seeing is that feeding into a Nina like response. It's possibly in response to enhanced vorcity and lower than average pressure over the Atlantic.

    Whether that is correct or lasts long is unknown. 

    what does that mean for us dummies ie - ME

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
    2 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

    what does that mean for us dummies ie - ME

    So right now we are ENSO neutral and will probably stay that way (no El Nino or La Nina events) however from time to time the atmosphere sets up a Pacific pattern that resembles one of them. Just as our current spell is likely the result of enhanced westerlies observed over the Pacific in early June, we are now seeing that the opposite is forecast to occur. The effect for us is that it may promote a response more consistent with La Nina during early July (generally but not always, bad). 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedworth
  • Weather Preferences: No Extremes Of Any Kind
  • Location: Bedworth
    2 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

    So right now we are ENSO neutral and will probably stay that way (no El Nino or La Nina events) however from time to time the atmosphere sets up a Pacific pattern that resembles one of them. Just as our current spell is likely the result of enhanced westerlies observed over the Pacific in early June, we are now seeing that the opposite is forecast to occur. The effect for us is that it may promote a response more consistent with La Nina during early July (generally but not always, bad). 

    ok cheers

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    South-east England is likely to reach 33c 91f this afternoon..fantastic,wonderful spell!:)

    Edited by Frosty.
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    12 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

    South-east England is likely to reach 33c 91f this afternoon..fantastic,wonderful spell!:)

    Wonderful eh :D

    Nice to see our old friend GFS forecasting 28c for London today at T0-12, going to be 4-5c wrong again! :wallbash:

    Rhgfs184.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Yes it's wonderful, could call it Mediterranean! :D Great looking models for this working week with plenty of very warm / hot and humid sunny weather with a risk of an isolated thunderstorm today, a higher risk of catching one tomorrow across southern uk but still well scattered so many places will stay dry and sunny..perfick weather.

    th.jpg

    Edited by Frosty.
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    Posted
  • Location: Bedworth
  • Weather Preferences: No Extremes Of Any Kind
  • Location: Bedworth
    5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

    Yes it's wonderful, could call it Mediterranean! :D Great looking models for this working week with plenty of hot and humid sunny weather with a risk of an isolated thunderstorm today, a bigger risk of catching one tomorrow across southern uk.

    well thankfully tomorrow It'll be a slight respite as the heat temporarily retreats southwards the has it's hurrah on wednesday

    Edited by Gordon Webb
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    Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
    7 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    Wonderful eh :D

    Nice to see our old friend GFS forecasting 28c for London today at T0-12, going to be 4-5c wrong again! :wallbash:

    Rhgfs184.gif

    AROME has a little patch of 33C NNE of London - you might be right in your assumption.

    1332_oek6.png

    Fun to see what the model anticipates for tomorrow in sim-sat IR format.

    tempresult_icy4.gif

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
    1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

    Yes it's wonderful, could call it Mediterranean! :D Great looking models for this working week with plenty of very warm / hot and humid sunny weather with a risk of an isolated thunderstorm today, a higher risk of catching one tomorrow across southern uk but still well scattered so many places will stay dry and sunny..perfick weather.

    th.jpg

     Lubbly jubbly it's beautiful. 

    I wouldn't read to much into the change over to cooler conditions. 

    Its very likely we will see the heat Return 

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    5 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

     Lubbly jubbly it's beautiful. 

    I wouldn't read to much into the change over to cooler conditions. 

    Its very likely we will see the heat Return 

    Yes it's beautiful, very good to see France isn't hogging all the heat!:D

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    Argepe now going for 35C around the Bristol area on Wednesday, and quite a large area in the 32C zone. In fact when you zoom in on Meteociel, it gives localised maximums of 36C. 

    arpege-31-60-0.png?19-12  

    Bear in mind this is no mickey-mouse model - its forecasts for maximums today and yesterday very close to the mark, even slightly under.

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    Enjoy the heat this week, as the models are agreed across the board for a more unsettled and cooler weather type from the weekend and through next week as the upper trough becomes dominant.

    The gardens will be needing it though.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Cor Blimey, almost 30c already across the s / se..33c is definitely on! Looking ahead, another scorcher in the south tomorrow with 30c highly likely and then hotter still on wed / thurs.:D

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    The 1976 record will be gone if this is right

    5947bc5f2a914_DCrpQI6XoAEATmG.jpglarge.thumb.jpg.343f0fe6bec821268d8e671f199834d9.jpg

     

    Edited by Summer Sun
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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    I've tried to think of another way of saying it's going to be hot in parts of England over the next couple of days but my limited vocabulary failed me. So I've settled for the EPS is looking to bring joy to many

    ecm_eps_t850a_5d_nh_10.thumb.png.db7f07026c5ca5063d8ea0d299e8eac4.png

    Edited by knocker
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    Posted
  • Location: Wellington, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/Snow/Hail & Strong Winds
  • Location: Wellington, Somerset
    8 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    If there's reporting station in the right place, though.

    There is recording station at Filton which is around there, however, may be more in the 33/34 region

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    Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester

    Just a thought, if we can reach 30C or more until Thursday would that be the longest run of 30C days since August 2003?

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    Posted
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow and....a bit more snow
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow
    5 hours ago, Frosty. said:

    Yes it's wonderful, could call it Mediterranean! :D Great looking models for this working week with plenty of very warm / hot and humid sunny weather with a risk of an isolated thunderstorm today, a higher risk of catching one tomorrow across southern uk but still well scattered so many places will stay dry and sunny..perfick weather.

    th.jpg

    Hmm, tbh I'm a bit lost... Nothing to grumble about today or tomorrow:)

    But normal service looks like resuming on Wednesday...

    image.thumb.png.95947821ecc6df1058b4cd75e5227bc9.png

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