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Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017

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I feel it is worthwhile pointing out, given that this is the model discussion thread, that the anomalies, a pretty reasonable guide to pinning down the upper air pattern used correctly and when possible in conjunction with det runs, are not indicating any sustained heat over the UK, and even western Europe, with temps returning about average and possible a little below in Iberia. Possible getting under way over Glastonbury weekend.

The main features are low pressure over the Arctic with associated troughs Greenland area and eastern Europe, and a weak trough in the eastern Atlantic. Thus a fairly weak westerly upper flow. The EPS does differ slightly by suggesting ridging in mid Atlantic thus veering the flow somewhat.

814day_03.thumb.gif.96aacdc4b2c8fc5c14149a738b24b008.gifgefs_z500a_5d_nh_61.thumb.png.ae134869f64b3127329597742b4a6e4c.png

 

 

Edited by knocker
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The setup to me is not disimilar to the hot spells of May 08 and 12 although we could well see the hottest second half to June since 2005. 

 

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Just done a quick analysis on the both the peak and scope of warmth by the following 4 models; NAVGEM, GEM, ARPEGE & GFS.

NAVGEM:

This is the most widespread in terms of heat and peak of temperatures. It is suggesting the possibility of 32 being reached for both Sunday, Monday & Tuesday. Highest Temps slowly transferring west by Tuesday.

ARPEGE:

Showing the possibility of 30 being reached around the London Area on Sunday (Usual Places like: Heathrow, Northolt & Kew Gardens). It will be widely 25 - 28 on both Sunday & Monday for southern areas (Including areas of the South West, Midlands & Wales).

GEM:

Likelihood of 29 being reached, once again around the London area. Monday being the warmest day.

GFS:

28 being the warmest on Monday around the Southampton area, widely 24 -26 from the North Midlands South.

Personal Prediction:

ARPEGE most likely, as it ties in with BBC (Met Office) predictions, NAVGEM most likely overcooking temps (But not out the question), GFS underplaying temperatures a little, especially in peak terms.

ECM would also likely produce around the 30 degree mark.

 

 

 

ARPEGE.PNG

GFS.PNG

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The gfs and ukmo at 144hrs....snap,with the renewed push of high preasure,this would turn out to be a lovely spell of nice weather:D

gfs-0-144.png?12UW144-21.GIF?15-18

and the gem looks to be heading the same way

gem-0-120.png?12

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Mid next week and UKMO shows high pressure right over the UK very nice indeed lovely heat this weekend then high pressure moves over

UKMOPEU12_144_1.thumb.png.29070021710cd4c768c3ddd7c5a84a39.png

:)

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This very latest chart now shows the process of the heat up under way. Currently much of the British Isles in a cooler air mass but by this time tomorrow warmer air will be advancing from the SW. The geo- potential heights show a robust Azores Ridge in development extending towards South Britain. The air mass on its Northern flank is particularly warm with surface air temps shown as high as 25c. Another worthwhile feature is the above normal sea surface temps in the Azores Region ( 2 to 3 c ) anomaly.

 C

eur_full.gif

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Looking very nice indeed, most of next week could be glorious too :D perhaps turning very hot by the end of next week again? A long way off mind you. Tuesday perhaps could be a transition day as the high re-aligns, so maybe a dip here before temperatures climb back upwards again towards the weekend.

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Yes indeed the gfs finds a different way to treat the Atlantic trough in 6 hours which allows the high cell to linger so fine weather mid week without excessive temps. And as a bonus will the convoluted Atlantic trough then promote a fresh burst of WAA over the Glastonbury weekend.:shok: On the other hand the ecm likes the idea of the trough edging in.................or did

gfs_z500a_natl_28.thumb.png.dfcd77afe0eb62d3fa46a2f4ac7f0720.pnggfs_z500a_natl_27.thumb.png.2fc77c712f6511fd651a4bf12d613f4c.png

Edited by knocker

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The weekend is looking great across England and Wales, widely mid 20's celsius and perhaps 30-32c in the hottest spots in the south-east by sunday..makes a nice change to see dry, sunny and very warm / hot weather coinciding with a weekend!:D

DCXJyDRUAAEMWkO.jpg

DCXJyXxVoAAM5Go.jpg

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Tuesday not great for heat or storm lovers, certainly 3 hot days Sat to Mon, but ending in a crap way, with high pressure, cannot see any storms before cooler air moves in early Tues, I mean no LP coming in from S or SW

h850t850eu.png

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Looking at the weekend and next week, the GEFS 12z mean shows high pressure in charge with warm / very warm settled conditions across most of the uk with plenty of sunshine to come.!:D

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Edited by Frosty.
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50 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

The UKMO tonight opens the door for something really hot at the end of next week, considering the heat already in place to our south. I don't think it would be right to mention 1976 ... oops I just did ;)

UW144-21.GIF?15-19

1995 probably more appropriate - uneventful/poor June, turning hot at the end, leading to one of the best summers of our time.

Not that I expect anything like 1995 this year, but I do hope July and August are settled and warm at least. 

Edited by cheese
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17 minutes ago, cheese said:

1995 probably more appropriate - uneventful/poor June, turning hot at the end, leading to one of the best summers of our time.

Not that I expect anything like 1995 this year, but I do hope July and August are settled and warm at least. 

Also including the North of the UK for once. The weather we had in May has jinxed us and the models don't like us anymore. :nonono:

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ECM singing from the same sheet too - things cooling slightly before really turning hot again later next week, before finally things become more mobile. Enjoy the stretch of weather folks, could end up being one of the best of the summer! Or is it merely a precursor to a summer to remember? :)

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I saw this on the CFS - Azores high running rampant on the 1st July ....

image.thumb.png.f89073ef7b9d3854291df61a329f2426.png

...and I thought 'what's this going to do to the shares in air conditioning installers and repairers this summer?'

But if you thought you might get in at the bottom of the market, you're too late!  Coz I already bought 'em all!  :rofl:

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I think it's great that the Ecm 12z gives us another pulse of heat next week. Really for the south of the uk this is a fantastic spell of summery weather coming up!:)

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Edited by Frosty.
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22 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

I saw this on the CFS - Azores high running rampant on the 1st July ....

image.thumb.png.f89073ef7b9d3854291df61a329f2426.png

...and I thought 'what's this going to do to the shares in air conditioning installers and repairers this summer?'

But if you thought you might get in at the bottom of the market, you're too late!  Coz I already bought 'em all!  :rofl:

Not what I get, must not be latest one, for fun of course, but Murray under the roof!

cfs-0-438.png?06

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54 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Not what I get, must not be latest one, for fun of course, but Murray under the roof!

cfs-0-438.png?06

 is yours from last night sky full.  Atlantic 252s from this morning I think, chops and changes from day to day cfs

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11 minutes ago, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

 is yours from last night sky full.  Atlantic 252s from this morning I think, chops and changes from day to day cfs

The old CFS sure does move along doesn't it?  Was downloaded immediately before posting it but I guess it updated just to trick me!  Anyway, no point in me worrying about it - I only showed it for a laugh really.  Hopefully we can be more confident about the June weather in the immediate offing as we could do with losing the wind and clouds in this neck of the woods!  Might make 20c or even 21c:shok: in Pembrokeshire or perhaps we can get a waft of that properly hot air from the SE if we're really lucky!

 

 

 

 

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Us Glastonbury festivalgoers may well be hopecasters but tonight we find ourselves respecting most peoples' High Pressure dominated, dryness dominated and even heat-likely prognoses of possibilities for next week.

 

Even various latest models seem to be in reasonable levels of agreement by now. Which is not what I saw last night and yesterday. So yes, usual FI health warnings apply but!!!

Van and us are away and offline from 10 am-ish tomorrow,  until Tuesday 27th or Wednesday 28th June. I'll have to rely on Carol Kirkwood and other crews' smartphones during the build up to and actual fest.

 

Someone mentioned 1995. Not impossible that G2017 could be the hottest G-fest since that notoriously hot year.

Some onsite really do not like dust, heat, ridiculous sunshine.

But bring all that I say I! You can shelter (with difficulty) from the sun, but you can't sit down in the mud!.  (<----2016 version - real mudbath at Glastonbury last year. We're OWED this better/drier/warmer stuff now for 2017 ... )

 

Thankyou all for tolerating my usual late June obsessions folks.

And if any LP influence reasserts itself, can that NOT come from a SWerly direction please?

Edited by William of Walworth
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Both GFS and Euro want the breakdown at day 8/9 tonight however i would not be shocked if that was pushed back.

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Cape amounts have increased and has also extended further North for Monday now with the 18z

18Z CAPE.png

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