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phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017

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GEM goes for 3 to 4 hot days then a breakdown could be 3 maybe even 4 30c days in a row for the south

GEMOPUK12_96_5.thumb.png.ca394afe24b5975f7c188005f4a9281e.pngGEMOPUK12_120_5.thumb.png.7ba6ec850048f53d9cccf362a37edd01.pngGEMOPUK12_144_5.thumb.png.e01f29283b463ce6bb7896eae3b6d011.pngGEMOPUK12_168_5.thumb.png.58de2ff1abb7a4ff7cc8782229477ff8.png

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Well at just 4/5 days out this coming weekend looks to be a cracker according to the ECM,

ECM1-96.GIF?13-0    ECM1-120.GIF?13-0

ECM0-96.GIF?13-0   ECM0-120.GIF?13-0

Very warm for most, we could get close to 30C in the south east with the potential for things to get even hotter into the beginning of next week if the heat to our south surges north.

Edited by Captain Shortwave

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Well if the ecm is correct the heat certainly won't last Long!  That low does seem to appear out of almost nowhere so wouldn't be surprised to see it dissappear on tomorrow's runs..

 

 

Recm1681.gif

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Well one certainly can't say the ecm is not without interest and is certainly reading this evolution different to the gfs.

It continues to stop eastward movement of the upper trough with strong ridging just to the east of the UK and thus the trough extends south with a tentative connection to the shallow Iberian low pressure by T132. This spawns a quite intense surface low west of Ireland which by 00z Tuesday is WNW of Scotland 988mb.

All of this facilitates WAA and the introduction of  some very warm air into the UK from Saturday. On that day temps in the range 24-27C SE of a line roughly Humber to Bristol and around 18-20C elsewhere.

Sunday a similar geographic spread but temps up a notch 26-28C

Monday potentially very warm everywhere with temps widely 28, 29C range in England so low 30s not to be ruled out.

By Tuesday the aformentioned low has intensified to 982mb and is just NW of the Hebrides so the winds have veered over the UK introducing much cooler temps.

 

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I wouldn't worry about next week, the weekend and next Monday indicate summer at its best on the Ecm 12z:D, Monday in particular looks an absolute scorcher and probably with a very thundery breakdown..

96_mslp500.png

120_mslp500.png

120_mslp850uk.png

144_mslp850.png

144_mslp850uk.png

144_thickuk.png

Edited by Frosty.

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Darn it, I was in the process of editing my post but didn't do it fast enough! Anyhoo, my point is I see no reason why we can't have a longer hot spell as shown on the Ecm 00z! All to play for:D

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So now a classic three increasingly warm/hot days and a thunderstorm scenario for southern parts from the ECM 12z. GEM 12z very similar (unusually so really!). UKMO 12z looking like a slower breakdown - suddenly it's the model showing the most prolonged very warm/hot spell. GFS... improving with less retrogression than earlier runs.

144_mslp850.png?cb=359 168_mslp850.png?cb=359

Examining the quick plume scenario, almost certainly the low deepens too much (almost all recent examples of plume-breakdown lows were overdone by ECM, often by 10 mb or more in terms of how low it goes at peak), but otherwise you have the classic lifting out N/NE with a new ridge coming in from the SW days 8-9. 

We then find that the Azores high has been shifted entirely west and leaves us at the mercy of an Atlantic low, but this is the La Nina-like behaviour that I'm wary of given Tamara's insights the other day - though I think it will be hard to completely avoid a more changeable westerly interlude given a bit of MJO activity now getting underway in the tropical Atlantic which ECM is keen to propagate east to the Indian Ocean by 3-4 days from now. Impacts for us by days 9-10 seems a bit too fast a response though! :pardon:

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Classic scenario with the main trough to the west, and the ubiquitous low off of Ireland,  with the plume and the southerly streamlines

ecm_t850_uv_natl_7.thumb.png.c4c39dc20a57bcc37e1b6c61c5e65c06.png

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Hello Folks , Ecm is a corker at T+144 for heat and thunderstorm potential, whilst the Gfs looks dull and boring with cool fresher air from the Atlantic at this stage. A lot to iron our but given its High Summer , surely its not to much to ask for a thunderstorm.....:rofl::rofl::rofl::yahoo:

stunning.png

stunningx.png

raised-eyebrows-o.gif

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I'm very cautious (EITHER WAY!) about anything beyond about Monday 19th at this stage. Is this sensible? Unpredictable/variable outlooks like the current ones leave room for either a complete breakdown or on the other hand, also leave open the possibility?? of HP resasserting itself more strongly for longer, and not regressing as much as some synoptics show ... and there's a fair bit of disagreement between models on the detail/positioning just now.

J10 with his relly helpful synoptics over on the Glastonbury 2017 thread (Spring and General Weather discussion) is currently suggesting a more or less gradual breakdown from about Wednesday 21st, with some rain in the SW, albeit possibly?? not too much.

Best to keep watching and (in my case) hope for improvements. Monitoring only possible for me up to earlyish Friday 16th, I'm completely offline aftet tthat. But up to then, I'll be model watching with my usual level of late-June obsessiveness, not to say paranoia. No mudbath please**!!

 

(**which is why I'm also no great fan of thunderstorms)

 

ETA : So in short @Frosty., I am worrrying about synoptics for next week! Obvious reasons etc.

Edited by William of Walworth

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Beeb's latest forecast shows the possibility of 30C+ in the UK. Matt Taylor highlighting that the models are still all over the place with the position of the high and the timing of the "breakdown". 

 

It is looking better though after Sunday for all of the UK, hopefully I get some heat up here in Scotland (higher than 25C :rofl:). 

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1 minute ago, Ross Andrew Hemphill said:

Beeb's latest forecast shows the possibility of 30C+ in the UK. Matt Taylor highlighting that the models are still all over the place with the position of the high and the timing of the "breakdown". 

 

It is looking better though after Sunday for all of the UK, hopefully I get some heat up here in Scotland (higher than 25C :rofl:). 

Well , One Solution ,get the BBC to hang some Seaweed out side Broadcasting House and see how the Seaweed feels tomorrow:rofl::rofl::rofl: Honesty BBC forecasts are about as good as a Chocolate Teapot:rofl::rofl::rofl:  Really don't no why I pay the licence  fee , Met Office completely crap and there multi million pound super computer should be crushed and some seaweed tied to it:rofl::nonono::rofl:

chocolate-teapot1.jpg

chocolate-teapot1.jpg

chocolate-teapot1.jpg

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Well my forecast on my phone seems less than impressed with current predictions .... Can only hope it improves in the morning...image.thumb.png.9b6c0f4fe6cecabfdfb680006bcb00b9.png

 

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This is not even funny anymore...there is still ZERO clarity or agreement between the GFS and ECM after Saturday, and even the Saturday chart shown by the ECM is much better for widespread warmth and sunshine.

The 06z is a truly awful run for warmth after the weekend, and yet the ECM 12z is spectacular. Incredibly the GFS 06z shows an area of 0C uppers (how does the green snot always seem to find its way to the UK?) moving over the UK on Monday which then leads into potential ground frost for some areas into Tuesday morning.

Not sure I've seen 2 such extreme possibilities before within the 'reliable'. I'm sure others can think of other occasions. It would be nice to have some clarity either way.

 

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Well its quite warm and sultry down here and also gonna be quite Warm tomorrow and also the weekend is looking good ' As for the Seaweed its delicious as we eat the good Laverbread   down here in the Good olde Wales .... Also warm weather is moving North to you all :drinks:

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1 hour ago, Scorcher said:

This is not even funny anymore...there is still ZERO clarity or agreement between the GFS and ECM after Saturday, and even the Saturday chart shown by the ECM is much better for widespread warmth and sunshine.

The 06z is a truly awful run for warmth after the weekend, and yet the ECM 12z is spectacular. Incredibly the GFS 06z shows an area of 0C uppers (how does the green snot always seem to find its way to the UK?) moving over the UK on Monday which then leads into potential ground frost for some areas into Tuesday morning.

Not sure I've seen 2 such extreme possibilities before within the 'reliable'. I'm sure others can think of other occasions. It would be nice to have some clarity either way.

 

Happens all the time in winter, and usually ends up with the least seasonal, least interesting scenario winning out lol!

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Phoar the GFS 00z is just a heat pump for the south... 

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Synoptically speaking the GFS doesn't look too bad to me. 

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The gfs is still having nothing to do with amplification in the eastern Atlantic which the ecm was still promoting last evening.

The energy and troughs tracking east from N. Canada continue to suppress any northward surge of the high pressure over the weekend which establishes a marked N/S split over the UK

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_19.thumb.png.6e919958c902a44cd48319c5f6427cad.pnggfs_z500a_natl_19.thumb.png.c3482294a54ef97dc169072eb0de9884.pnggfs_z500a_natl_24.thumb.png.b5a36c23fa47b1c8f8c3368abd1e394f.png

Thus on Saturday temps in the far south in the 24C-26C range and generally 16C-20C elsewhere.Generally dry but possibly some showery rain in the north of Scotland. Sunday probably the warmest day but again the marked geographic bias with temps SE of a line the Wash to Dorset around 24-26C, possibly 28C in the latter area. Note as low as 10C in NE Scotland.

After this some amplification does occur with the HP ridging NE and establishing a high cell whilst the the upper trough extends south and disrupts, So a return to not unpleasant cooler conditions for all and it leaves the door wide open for interesting future developments, But I wouldn't bet the house on this.

gfs_z500a_natl_29.thumb.png.a706996a805600e62f1f610307a33c8e.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_29.thumb.png.16611eb2f461143604ad3656b5024732.png

Edited by knocker

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1 hour ago, cheese said:

Synoptically speaking the GFS doesn't look too bad to me. 

not too bad, as it is only June, 18°

ukmaxtemp.png

as you say Jul and Aug proper summer

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ECM looks fantastic again this morning - massive temperature gradient setting up though! Ranging from 0 in the north of Scotland to around 16c in the south. Looks unstable too, so there could be some epic storms around.:D

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The ecm has very much modified it's position from yesterday evening and moved much closer the gfs

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5 minutes ago, knocker said:

The ecm has very much modified it's position from yesterday evening and moved much closer the gfs

Yup ever so slightly has!!!ukmo still the hottest!!now watch gfs move towards this mornings ukmo;)

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