Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017

[Ice Man 85]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

Maybe you should be in the moaning thread?

Perhaps. If the posts from the heat lovers from the last few days join me.

[Frosty.]

6 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

Perhaps. If the posts from the heat lovers from the last few days join me.

Why? The Ecm 12z is showing heat so I'm posting charts and discussing it.

Edited June 12, 2017 by Frosty.

[Guest]

6 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

I was referring to the moaning of the last few days which you yourself commented on. You seem to enjoy any kind of weather. I truly envy you.

I'm all for happy go lucky people on here! Not enough of us around

That said everyone has their preference with our chaotic weather. The models must be getting some sadistic enjoyment out of dragging us along their rollercoasters 

Lovely ECM this evening for the heat-seekers

[damianslaw]

A fair bit of flip flopping between intra-model runs at present, never a great sign for calling any degree of certainty to things, so don't be surprised to see further changes in the next few runs, we need some consistency before we can call on either a sustained warmer phase as shown by ECM, or something more temporary a la GFS. The form horse should always be on the the more temporary feature affairs, this is the UK after all, but on occasion we can see the more locked in pattern. Some significant heat is due to build over Iberia and S France in the days ahead, so any airstream from off the continent on a southerly drift will bring notably very warm uppers, my expected max for Wed would be 28 degrees, the weekend could return similiar values if the ECM model output of today comes off as well, but all conjecture. The ensembles and background signals still suggest the more retrogressive pattern.. 

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean shows a very warm spell on the way and the word hot can be applied for the south..very summery outlook..all being well!

Edited June 12, 2017 by Frosty.

[Ice Man 85]

7 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean shows a very warm spell on the way and the word hot can be applied for the south..very summery outlook..all being well!

Indulge me because I have no idea what an 850 or Geopot is, but those colour gradients seem the same to me so how can the SE differ? I prefer the GFS charts; nice simple numbers for a weather noob like me

Edited June 12, 2017 by Ice Man 85
typo

[TJS1998Tom]

18z shows promising temperatures for the end of June with the potential for some Thunderstorms

[cyclonic happiness]

6 hours ago, TJS1998Tom said:

18z shows promising temperatures for the end of June with the potential for some Thunderstorms

This morning the GFS is showing a straight northerly, with temps in the low to mid teens, for the end of June :-(

[Summer Sun]

Very warm to hot from ECM this morning easily into the 30's at times

[knocker]

The ecm det. this morning is running with the scenario of the weekend getting progressively warmer through Saturday to Monday

Saturday has most of England in the 23-24C range with the SW, W. Wales N. Ireland, NW England and Scotland 18-20C with NE Scotland perhaps as low as 14C

Sunday very warm in virtually all of England with 27-28C quite widespread so obviously the possibility 0f 30C in places.The NW, NI, and Scotland in the 18-22C range.

Monday is the hottest with a similar distribution to Sunday but max temps a degree or two higher Thus it is forecasting quite widespread 28-29C so 30-32C quite possible

It then remains warm for the rest of the week culminating on Thursday with temps of 30-32C quite widespread in the Midlands and southern England.

The usual caveats apply to all of this The weekend is not too bad as it's only four or five days away but next week too far to be taking too much notice of at the moment.

These are model predictions so treat with extreme caution.

Tuesday sees temps ranging 34-37C across France.

Edited June 13, 2017 by knocker

[I remember Atlantic 252]

52 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

This morning the GFS is showing a straight northerly, with temps in the low to mid teens, for the end of June :-(

Wondering which model will be right for 19th? GFS keeps showing vile 14°, damp/windy, GEM and Ecmwf, keep showing sunny/hot 30°

[cheese]

Boo GFS.

[Frosty.]

9 minutes ago, cheese said:

Boo GFS.

One model is going to end up with egg splattered all over its face..hopefully the Gfs

[stainesbloke]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

One model is going to end up with egg splattered all over its face..hopefully the Gfs

Yes, the GFS run is utterly vile after the coming weekend, am praying it's wrong....

Edited June 13, 2017 by stainesbloke

[Frosty.]

Just now, stainesbloke said:

Yes, the GFS run is utterly vile after the coming weekend, a praying it's wrong....

Amen to that

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

One model is going to end up with egg splattered all over its face..hopefully the Gfs

GFS always the most Atlantic dominated, but tends to be nearer in winter months, have seen some unrealistic ECM charts post 200

[knocker]

The differences between the gfs and ecm from the beginning of next week is clearly down to their handling of the upper trough/high pressure interaction as can be seen at T144. From this point the ecm is keen to deconstruct the Atlantic trough which facilitates WAA later in the week. This needs to be sorted before confidence can be high.

Edited June 13, 2017 by knocker

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

Gfs v ecmf  This is why I love the weather, I don't take much notice of the 06z, I'm gonna have to wait until the 12zs this evening to have a better idea whow gonna win out, come on ecmf you no you want it.lol 

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

1 minute ago, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

Gfs v ecmf  This is why I love the weather, I don't take much notice of the 06z, I'm gonna have to wait until the 12zs this evening to have a better idea whow gonna win out, come on ecmf you no you want it.lol 

What's ukmos take on things thanks dont get charts to look ? Thanks

[Snowyowl9]

GFS has stumped me this morning,with the high way out the west.

UKMO looking inbetween GFS and ECM,can`t make a decision what to do as it stands.

[Snowyowl9]

Just to add as the edit button has gone,the 0z runs tend to show the atlantic stronger while the 12z run a better blocking scenario as yesterday showed.

 

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z really is the holy grail for summer heat fans..charts worth saving..10/10 for beautiful eye candy.

Edited June 13, 2017 by Frosty.

[mushymanrob]

16 hours ago, mb018538 said:

That chart is a day out of date though, so equally may not be of too much value!

its the same this morning and previously, its been consistent in showing that, consistence = higher degree of certainty, much higher then the ops...  whilst it does show lower pressure over scandinavia, its nothing like some of the ops have been showing.

tbh after john holmes finding after extensive research into this has proven accurate for the timeframe over and over again, im not sure why more heed isnt apparently being taken to this source.

[Singularity]

I believe we are seeing an ideal sequence of events for making apparent the difference in model bias; during the weekend it's the flatness and progressiveness* that sets GFS apart from ECM while UKMO has typically tended to be somewhere between those two in that respect, and beyond that time it's the low-GLAAM bias (via too much forcing from Indian Ocean convective activity) that causes GFS to retract the Azores High so far west.

I don't think ECM and UKMO are entirely without some low GLAAM tendencies though; the way ECM opens up a gap for LP to dive into days 8-10 does show something akin to low-GLAAM pattern modification, although it could perhaps be within reach of typical variability around the base pattern of an Atlantic trough and Euro/UK ridge.

Based on the above which has the big drop scheduled to start in 5 or 6 days time i.e. during the weekend, I expect GFS will continue to be very stubborn until if/when (most likely when, well hopefully!) it's forced to moderate that drop as a result of observed data leaning away from that sort of thing. We've already seen it reduce the progressiveness a bit for the weekend such that Sunday joins Saturday in being fine and very warm for most of England and Wales - the far north being the exception along with Scotland. 

 

* This is because the overall pattern is trying to shift east with time and so the slower the trough is, the further east it makes the turn into Scandinavia/eastern Europe.

[Singularity]

Hmm okay, at least GFS is having second thoughts here - but only after bringing all that cool air down to produce mediocre temps down south and poor ones up north for Mon-Wed (but only Tue-Wed in far S). 

The plume looks angry. Poor old Iberia and of course ECM roasts the entirety of France as well.Could be a June to remember down there.