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Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017

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The Ecm 12z looks pretty good for the south of the uk, especially the south-east with generally warm / very warm conditions, there is plenty of fine weather too with sunny spells under high pressure / ridges at times too. If I was in the south I would be happy about the upcoming weather in the next week to ten days.

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UKMO has banished the hot spell, while a few other models keep the warm air and GEM brings the really good stuff. Who knows what's gonna happen, but I'm disappointed now about this summery spell we probably won't get anymore. 

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Evening All... Its quite clear that there is no easy route to an high pressure scenario from the ops tonight ,away from the previous days output. Both models show high pressure building across the south ahead of a strong jet stream at t+120 with the result of muggy very warm ,windy conditions further south , futher north Just Horrible :nonono:

 

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Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean indicates a good deal of fine and warm weather for the south of the uk, indeed, very warm at times with temperatures occasionally into the mid to upper 20's celsius, especially for the south and south-east. Further north by north-west doesn't look as good but nothing nasty either..for southern britain the charts on the face of it look summery for the most part and certainly don't warrant the amount of moaning in here today!:)

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ECMAVGEU12_144_1.png

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ECMAVGEU12_168_1.png

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ECMAVGEU12_192_1.png

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ECMAVGEU12_216_1.png

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ECMAVGEU12_240_1.png

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Reliable timeframe, all models consistent in their output for a rather typical summer pattern, a showery rather underwhelming westerly airstream for the northern half of the country with showery outbreaks of rain interspersed with drier albeit disappointingly cloudy uninspiring conditions, whilst the southern half of the country comes more under the influence of the azores high, with generally very pleasant conditions, warm and mostly dry and often very sunny especially in the SE, with respectable temps perhaps nudging mid 20's.

Longer term - mmm ominous signs of northern blocking appearing a downturn to generally more widespread unsettled conditions, and cooler than average temps for all, as heights build up and through the country very quickly forcing the jetstream to sink southwards. All a long way off, but not a very good sign at what I call a pivotal stage in the summer roughly around the solstice when the northern hemispheric summer base state tends to bed in.

From a local perspective it is a very underwhelming outlook for here, we have had a very poor start to June, and I'm less than enthused about what appears to a week plagued by cloud, nagging wind from the Irish Sea, andshowery outbreaks of rain or damp mizzly mucky drizzle, coming on the back of a very wet dull few days - this weekend has brought hardly a chink of brightness.. 

Edited by damianslaw
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1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean indicates a good deal of fine and warm weather for the south of the uk, indeed, very warm at times with temperatures occasionally into the mid to upper 20's celsius, especially for the south and south-east. Further north by north-west doesn't look as good but nothing nasty either..for southern britain the charts on the face of it look summery for the most part and certainly don't warrant the amount of moaning in here today!:)

ECMAVGEU12_48_1.png

ECMAVGEU12_72_1.png

ECMAVGEU12_96_1.png

ECMAVGEU12_120_1.png

ECMAVGEU12_144_1.png

ECMAVGEU12_144_2.png

ECMAVGEU12_168_1.png

ECMAVGEU12_168_2.png

ECMAVGEU12_192_1.png

ECMAVGEU12_192_2.png

ECMAVGEU12_216_1.png

ECMAVGEU12_216_2.png

ECMAVGEU12_240_1.png

ECMAVGEU12_240_2.png

Yes a good analogy there, it is a case of perception as always, for those in the SE yes a good outlook, but those in Scotland and far north of england every right to complain after what has been a thoroughly miserable start to June, and whilst next week looks better, it remains very underwhelming with very little in the way of sunshine- which is the one feature you really want to make the most of in June.

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Much, much better ecm op this morning. I hope it is on the right lines. I was accused yesterday of being a whinger. I comment on what the models show, which is what this forum is about surely. I just say it how it is, I don't believe in sugar coating.  This morning, the ecm and gfs look great for the weekend and at last we have some consistency. Just need ukmo to join the party now. 

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3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Much, much better ecm op this morning. I hope it is on the right lines. I was accused yesterday of being a whinger. I comment on what the models show, which is what this forum is about surely. I just say it how it is, I don't believe in sugar coating.  This morning, the ecm and gfs look great for the weekend and at last we have some consistency. Just need ukmo to join the party now. 

Yes what a fantastic run, quite a surprise in all honesty.

The GFS also seems to be dropping its retrogression idea at long last. 

It's amazing how persistent the op runs have been at quite a short time frame, somewhat in defiance of the ensembles. Let's hope this trend continues and that there are no further complications.

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Much better OP runs today, but it is worth mentioning that an ensemble split has developed....with a fair few showing the warmer solution displayed today, and a number still pushing the cooler crud we got shown most of yesterday. Let's keep an eye out and hope this mornings OPs have it right. FWIW the GFS OP isn't the warmest run at all....20% of members bring in extreme heat (>15c 850s).

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The ECM ens support some much warmer air arriving temps would be getting in the upper 20s for the south maybe even just into the low 30s

ECMAVGEU00_144_2.thumb.png.6fac9a2b6147ec76fa4ecac25a32661f.pngECMAVGEU00_168_2.thumb.png.60e1439632c7613e52fd95c4cc48bcc6.pngECMAVGEU00_192_2.thumb.png.63077e53b88d4a769778432da92522f3.pngECMAVGEU00_216_2.thumb.png.a949e914dcacf17288cd4c7d13765ea3.png

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Given the situation with forcing from the Indian Ocean being allowed too much impact on GLAAM, it's not surprising to see ECM shifting toward GEM (the new king of trend spotting?!) this morning with GFS also making a good move in that direction.

168_mslp850.png?cb=329 168_mslp850.png?cb=329 00_168_mslp850.png?cb=329

192_mslp850.png?cb=329 192_mslp850.png?cb=329 00_192_mslp850.png?cb=329

 

Longer-term we see GEM and ECM building ridges across to the north of the heat plume which is one way to prolong the heat but always with the risk of a thundery low pushing up from the south. Typically enough we see GFS enthusiastically bringing a low through having not managed to get the plume across much of the UK in the first place. From past cases we know this is always a significant possibility, but I have seen a similar number of cases go the other way as well :).

240_mslp850.png?cb=329 240_mslp850.png?cb=329  00_240_mslp850.png?cb=329

GFS does actually make some attempt to restore a mid-Atlantic trough + Euro ridge combination early into lower-res, before the GLAAM bias forces westward retraction of the ridge. That this has been delayed is notable. The GEFS started to show a split between retracted and not retracted ridges yesterday evening and that has progressed further this morning.

Interesting times ahead if you like 'proper summer weather', and it also seems to me that the NetWeather team should consider updating the GEM viewer to include output beyond +144 hours :wink:.

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Less moaning so far today, good to see:D

Could reach 29c in the south-east midweek.

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34 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Less moaning so far today, good to see:D

Could reach 29c in the south-east midweek.

Is that based on the BBC? I saw them mention 27*C yesterday.

ukmaxtemp.png

Even that would be most amusing though in terms of GFS being miles out just like it was in late May - but perhaps even more so this time around! :D

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6 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Is that based on the BBC? I saw them mention 27*C yesterday.

ukmaxtemp.png

Even that would be most amusing though in terms of GFS being miles out just like it was in late May - but perhaps even more so this time around! :D

You had better include the ecm in that as well then as it has 23-24C SE of a line the Wash to Portsmouth on Weds and 20 -22C on Thursday.

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1 minute ago, knocker said:

You had better include the ecm in that as well then as it has 23-24C SE of a line the Wash to Portsmouth on Weds and 20 -22C on Thursday.

Interesting, thanks for that info. Broadly close to what the French ARPEGE model shows but it has temps 1-2*C higher at peak in the SE region. I have noticed that the BBC often refers to temperatures on a par with that model.

Unlike in late May, there will be very light winds for inland areas in this spell so temp errors should be more down to boundary layer modifications which is a known difficultly for models given parameterisation methods. I expect though that most of the error will be restricted to large urban areas and other hot spots brought about by terrain effects.  

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Unless frosty was referring to next week?

BBC this morning have 26c for the SE Wednesday, with the forecaster mentioning that it could perhaps get 1-2c higher if conditions are favourable.

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30 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Is that based on the BBC? I saw them mention 27*C yesterday.

ukmaxtemp.png

Even that would be most amusing though in terms of GFS being miles out just like it was in late May - but perhaps even more so this time around! :D

Radio 5 live this morning said 28c for the south-east midweek so I just added another degree:D

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1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

Less moaning so far today, good to see:D

Could reach 29c in the south-east midweek.

It's not moaning Frosty. It's people airing their views on what the models show. The models, in particular the ecm, have improved overnight hence the much more positive reactions from people this morning including myself :) . If the models revert back to a less favourable outlook, I for one will not be afraid to point that out. 

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48 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Is that based on the BBC? I saw them mention 27*C yesterday.

ukmaxtemp.png

Even that would be most amusing though in terms of GFS being miles out just like it was in late May - but perhaps even more so this time around! :D

I'd say the BBC are on the money, the GFS consistently underestimates maximum temperatures by a good 3-4C for the UK. 

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53 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Is that based on the BBC? I saw them mention 27*C yesterday.

Arpege showing a little pocket of 27C for the north of London and the first 40C of the summer for down here.

6790_rfh8.png     7116_igz3.png

As I said in a status comment, forecasts for here will see June 2003 well beaten - l wonder if some of the suggestions of dangerous heat will come to fruition? 

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GFS holds out on the 6z albeit not too bad..

GFSOPEU06_186_1.png

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6z flips back to the cooler solution, this is still a long way from being sorted out! Sounds like winter mode....more runs needed!

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2 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

GFS holds out on the 6z albeit not too bad..

GFSOPEU06_186_1.png

bad chart, day before only 14° max

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