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Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017

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3 minutes ago, weatherguru14 said:

shame these charts  are for the first month of the summer aint it?? seems always the case.

Disagree, I think it's interesting weather the models are showing next week and some of us need the rain.:)

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Just now, Frosty. said:

Disagree, I think it's interesting weather the models are showing next week and some of us need the rain.:)

we need weeks of rain?. Ok  then.. anyway back to the models they are not want we want for the first month of the summer.. But I guess   we should be hopefully  it will dry up eventually.

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Sadly this weather pattern is very common in the early summer in the U.K....much more so than high pressure and heat!

personally I don't really believe in the European monsoon as it just isn't predictable and regular enough to be classed as a monsoon feature....but an unsettled spell will always arrive at some point. As long as it doesn't last for the next 3 months we are ok! 

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Yes Frosty we could certainly do with the water tables topping up around here. The GFS advertises a wild start to the new working week, With possible gales for S/W coastal areas and the channel.

ukprec-2.thumb.png.07400b9ef1551e94b57779cd4b43dce7.pngukgust-1.thumb.png.0ba486da00e91efa82ecd3b0d4e60057.pngukgust-2.thumb.png.56258178695d6e8b0e9278271c44f85d.png

 

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5 minutes ago, weatherguru14 said:

we need weeks of rain?. Ok  then.. anyway back to the models they are not want we want for the first month of the summer.. But I guess   we should be hopefully  it will dry up eventually.

Just to clarify..I didn't say weeks of rain but it certainly looks like we will get some rain next week, very welcome rain too.:)

Yes PM I agree.

Edited by Frosty.
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3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Sadly this weather pattern is very common in the early summer in the U.K....much more so than high pressure and heat!

personally I don't really believe in the European monsoon as it just isn't predictable and regular enough to be classed as a monsoon feature....but an unsettled spell will always arrive at some point. As long as it doesn't last for the next 3 months we are ok! 

Summer isn't really until mid July through to early 0ct, anything before mid July is a bonus, C'mon Frosty, this isn't you

Edited by I remember Atlantic 252

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46 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Summer isn't really until mid July through to early 0ct, anything before mid July is a bonus, C'mon Frosty, this isn't you

Good grief, what utter nonsense. 

As for the models, unsettled for the foreseeable, more so for NW - with the best of conditions in the S and SE!  

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7 minutes ago, draztik said:

Good grief, what utter nonsense. 

As for the models, unsettled for the foreseeable, more so for NW - with the best of conditions in the S and SE!  

The warmest time of the year is mid July to Mid Sept, at least here in the South! but can extend into late Sept/0ct, Sept also tends to be the most settled month in the south, with 25° not uncommon, where as June tends to be cooler/less summery

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1 minute ago, draztik said:

 

As for the models, unsettled for the foreseeable, more so for NW - with the best of conditions in the S and SE!  

In other words, normal British summer weather, parts of May were very summer like but next week looks more unsettled with temperatures closer to average but hopefully we will see spells of fine very warm weather like we saw at times last month during the summer.

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21 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

The warmest time of the year is mid July to Mid Sept, at least here in the South! but can extend into late Sept/0ct, Sept also tends to be the most settled month in the south, with 25° not uncommon, where as June tends to be cooler/less summery

Statistically, the warmest period of the year is the last week of July and first week of August. 

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1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

Disagree, I think it's interesting weather the models are showing next week and some of us need the rain.:)

The weather is looking vile Frosty, even you have to admit that. Now, unlike some on here I don't think it's a sign that all of June, let alone all of summer, is now a write-off, but certainly Monday looks horrific. Interesting weather in summer should be thunderstorms, high temperatures, not Atlantic low pressure nonsense. We have all of autumn and winter for that!

Edited by cheese
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3 minutes ago, cheese said:

Statistically, the warmest period of the year is the last week of July and first week of August. 

Yes would agree, the 'mid' point of my warmest part of year,

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Deep shocking autumnal lows of around 980mb for next week and more similar lows to follow according the ecm. Who said it was a summer ending in 2 or 7 ?

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3 minutes ago, 40*C said:

Deep shocking autumnal lows of around 980mb for next week and more similar lows to follow according the ecm. Who said it was a summer ending in 2 or 7 ?

Not cold though, and the lows, on the ECM at least, are not currently forecast to be that deep - more like 990mb (small difference I know). Some seriously warm and moist (gotta love that word!) air gets churned up our way through next week. Could be another round of beefy convectiveness for some :) :bomb:

giphy.gif

 

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Only got to wait until the 14th June according to the GFS.....

image.thumb.gif.c44e36707cdb9f0c36468ea33491a091.gif

:yahoo:      "Here comes Summer...."    

...but will it still be there in 10 days time??  :unknw:

 

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1 hour ago, Sky Full said:

Only got to wait until the 14th June according to the GFS.....

image.thumb.gif.c44e36707cdb9f0c36468ea33491a091.gif

:yahoo:      "Here comes Summer...."    

...but will it still be there in 10 days time??  :unknw:

 

Two good runs with the 18z at temps 20-21 but the 00z is even better :o Who knows lol

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Very uncertain outlook in the longer term....but it very much looks like batten down the hatches in a weeks time!! The stormy theme is still there, with the potential for gales or severe gales in places. Very unusual for June.

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the overall pattern seems to be establishing sou'wester and alternating between systems getting into nw Europe or the upper trough correcting west and building the euro upper ridge across the uk. Last weekend saw the lows breaking out from the iiberian low and drifting across us. The coming week sees a system actually crossing sw/ne across the s half of the uk. I am assuming that as the wavelengths change, the upper ridge will edge nw and push the trough further nw with plume potential week to week. 

overall we can see how things have improved week by week with the modelling generally predicting conditions to be worse in the 7/10 days period than actually verifies as the pattern corrects West. (Note the difference with winter where things usually correct further east )

 

reading back a day day or two and I agree with singularity re the GEM. For whatever reason, it's been good at spotting the upcoming correction ahead of the ecm/gfs

Edited by bluearmy
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1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

Very uncertain outlook in the longer term....but it very much looks like batten down the hatches in a weeks time!! The stormy theme is still there, with the potential for gales or severe gales in places. Very unusual for June.

A deep low in June seems to have occurred quite regularly over the last 10 years or so, from memory, hitting the southern half of the country worst. A most unwelcome development, who wants gales at this time of the year? A week away though so could all change and hopefully either move north by many hundreds of miles or disappear altogether. 

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2 hours ago, bluearmy said:

the overall pattern seems to be establishing sou'wester and alternating between systems getting into nw Europe or the upper trough correcting west and building the euro upper ridge across the uk. Last weekend saw the lows breaking out from the iiberian low and drifting across us. The coming week sees a system actually crossing sw/ne across the s half of the uk. I am assuming that as the wavelengths change, the upper ridge will edge nw and push the trough further nw with plume potential week to week. 

overall we can see how things have improved week by week with the modelling generally predicting conditions to be worse in the 7/10 days period than actually verifies as the pattern corrects West. (Note the difference with winter where things usually correct further east )

 

reading back a day day or two and I agree with singularity re the GEM. For whatever reason, it's been good at spotting the upcoming correction ahead of the ecm/gfs

Wise words from you as always :good:

It's interesting how we've tended to had UKMO and GEM banding together lately, though GEM has fallen a bit short with the ridge influence this morning days 5-6 (but is still less disturbed than ECM and to some extent GFS).

Rukm1201.gif Rgem1201.gif 

Rukm1441.gif Rgem1441.gif

GEM does however have the sharper trough in the mid-Atlantic on day 6 with the potential deep low digging further south and maintaining less forward momentum as a result.

Rgem1921.gif

I will be keeping on eye on this. My draft forecasts for next weekend currently cast a very wide net! :whistling: GEM has too little ridging to maintain a finer, warmer spell for long, but UKMO looks well primed to do a better job of things. Fingers crossed that the tendency of recent weeks is still going to be at hand.

Edited by Singularity
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There is nothing in the anomaly charts to suggest the 500 mb flow is going to be conducive to  dry and ridge building. A consistent idea for several days now. A glimmer perhaps with GFS with the ridge east of the UK. However looking at the wider scale upper prediction and there seems nothing that would suggest it moving west over the UK?

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

So in the  7-10 day period at least the outlook is for unsettled but probably warmer than average especially the further S/E one lives, less warmth (humid) the further N and W. This is after whatever the models decide to do with the predicted system for the start of next week.

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There is some wiggle room considering the spread in ensembles, plus some admittedly subtle hints of an overall sharpening of the mid-Atlantic trough and perhaps even a west-based negative NAO by day 10 which would be interesting but not the most sustainable of patterns for fine weather.

Really though, I can see some chance that GFS and ECM have even the broader details wrong enough in 5-6 days time that it could render the current 500 mb anomaly guidance invalid. I I know that's not a common occurrence at all, indeed it's not something I would actually bet on at this time, but worth considering IMO. We are in the midst of some particularly volatile times in terms of the atmospheric setup.

Adding to the uncertainties is the apparent impetus for blocking highs to try and persist over the Arctic (according to ECM mostly but GFS is having a think about it too) even where the stratospheric profile leans toward the opposite. Could regional sea ice based forcing be causing some mischief I wonder? I hope it does not come to pass, not just for our sake but for that of the Arctic sea ice which is in the most fragile state ever observed at this time of year. Slack, cloudy lows are what it needs this summer, not clear highs with 24-hour irradiation.

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Another vile gfs run with constant troughing getting stuck between highs, In all likely hood the first half of June looks a total write off. Meanwhile parts of France see temps approaching 35C.

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